Has the stock market peaked?

Kendall80

Glen_Clark wrote: »

I never really know how much things like that are going to affect short term share prices, because I don't know how much is already priced in. For example the ECB announced more QE a couple of weeks ago which usually causes share prices to rise. But they fell because the market had been expecting more, and had priced it in.

I was watching the Dax as Draghi spoke - it dropped by nearly 5%


He makes comments to push the market into believing he is going to greatly increase QE then just tinkers around the edges. Mario probably had a short on. I'm glad I didn't follow my instincts and increase my europe allocation last month.

bowlhead99

Malthusian wrote: »

and Tyson Fury won't be Sports Personality of the Year?

I was surprised to see that you can get longer odds on Hamilton winning it than Fury despite the F1 industry having more money in it than boxing, not being about brutalising an opponent's face, and him not being so much of an outspoken bigot.

I guess it's just not as fashionable to support a cheeky young tax exile dripping with with riches from his high tech car racing, as it is to side with the salt-o-the-earth gypsy brawler!

As for the stock market, it's a brave man that picks a point and says they'll now bet on it going down and down for a few years instead of stiltedly lurching along and generally up over the long long term. Never be 100% in, never be 100% out. Where we sit in between, is personal.

Thrugelmir

Spurs_2015 wrote: »

Apologies for hijacking the thread but what are everyone's thoughts on the possible interest rate hike in the US next week? I've read a few articles and it looks like the general consensus is that there will probably be volatility in the short term but more than likely will continue to grow in the long term, does everyone agree and what are you doing/not doing in preparation?

It's what you don't know that matters. Not what you do.

If you could tell me what the game plan is of the Middle East OPEC members it would be far more useful.

EdGasket

Thrugelmir wrote: »

It's what you don't know that matters. Not what you do.

If you could tell me what the game plan is of the Middle East OPEC members it would be far more useful.

While they can afford it (and they have very deep pockets) they will keep oil price low and put as many marginal producers out of business as possible especially the shale industry. Then when they think its safe, hike the oil price.

Pincher

I look at the world population, and the energy requirement will only go up in the long term. This glut is a temporary situation.


Shell and BP pay dividends. So what does it matter if you have to wait five years?

Glen_Clark

Kendall80 wrote: »

I was watching the Dax as Draghi spoke - it dropped by nearly 5%


He makes comments to push the market into believing he is going to greatly increase QE then just tinkers around the edges. Mario probably had a short on. I'm glad I didn't follow my instincts and increase my europe allocation last month.

Basically Draghi just extended the same rate of QE for a bit longer, so I was surprised by the fall. Bearing in mind you already have to pay the Germans to take your money for 2 years I wondered how much more the market expected him to do.

Spurs_2015

Thanks for all the responses it makes more sense to me now.

Pincher wrote: »

I look at the world population, and the energy requirement will only go up in the long term. This glut is a temporary situation.


Shell and BP pay dividends. So what does it matter if you have to wait five years?

I am obviously no expert on this whatsoever however I though the same, I may be wrong but we are a growing worldwide population and wIthout finding more oil then demand will keep getting higher. It may be a few years away though.

Glen_Clark

Pincher wrote: »

Shell and BP pay dividends. So what does it matter if you have to wait five years?

Worst case scenario is they go bust before the oil price rises. I hope not and hold some Shell. But seeing what Shell are paying for BG I wouldn't like to underestimate the 'ability' of management to ruin a strong company. Many Great companies have been ruined by bad management..

Thrugelmir

EdGasket wrote: »

While they can afford it (and they have very deep pockets) they will keep oil price low

Not as simple as that. The Middle East needs oil dollars. People are losing their well paid jobs out in places like Doha (with no notice or compensation to boot). A low oil price is rippling far and wide. As a result may hit the UK luxury car makers for example.

iantojones40

Hi, I didn't really want to start a brand new thread for this but I just wanted some very basic advice about how to go about investing in an Equity fund?
I've never done anything like this before and don't really know where to begin, the basic research I have done would suggest Hargreaves Lansdown would be the best option for a newbie like me and the Woodford Fund would be the obvious one to invest in?
Thanks for any advice or suggestions!