HPC thread of the week

Crashy_Time

mwpt wrote: »

There is a thread now on HPC subject "Aging Out And Tired Of Waiting For A Crash".

It's this sort of thing that makes me feel really angry and sorry for people being priced out of the owning a home. There are a few points here, I want to present a balanced view (in my opinion).

- That person is going to be given one sided advice on that thread. He/she has followed that same one sided advice for years and is far far worse off for it. Yet this will not be mentioned or tolerated on the site. All because the crash is always "just around the corner".

- On the other hand, I myself viewed the property market in the UK as overvalued LONG before I ever found a site called housepricecrash or even this site. IF the government had not bailed out borrowers through lowered interest rates, FLS for the banks, and various other demand side schemes, people like myself who independently came to the conclusion, may have finally had the chance to buy at value. I should have done so in 2009 but in the areas of London I looked at, prices stood still rather than lowered. So I was wrong, but I can see that there are reasons I was wrong. I finally realised I could not fight those reasons and had to take the plunge as I got older.

- My point above is that most people who feel the market is overvalued are not being any more selfish that someone who buys into the market. They are just people trying to make the most of their finances and make sensible investment decisions. Sure, they may have made wrong decisions but the problem is the UK housing market, not the people.

If I could still post to HPC my advice to that chap on the thread would be that he has to start thinking in terms of probabilities and hedging. In the end my decision came from viewing the likelihood of a crash vs the likelihood of the government forever trying to support prices. Now if HPI of (say) > 5% is certain, then by far my best decision would have been to leverage up to the absolute max I could do and watch the equity in the house exceed the huge mortgage repayments each year. On the other hand, being naturally cynical and not believing in a free lunch, I had to let my risk averse side in to the decision. I now own a moderate house in an area where the houses are quite nice but the area (high street) is pretty dull. I can afford the repayments way above the 7% checks. I now have a hedge against positive HPI and a lesser hedge against negative HPI, in the sense that I have a lot of equity left over in shares and cash, while my house tanking in value won't ruin me. In this event I will look at the opportunity to upsize.

Of course I had another alternative which was to prefer to live a better life right now, remaining in my old very up market area renting for pretty decent value (as opposed to what I'd pay on a mortgage) - and there isn't anything wrong with this approach in the short term. Long term, different story.

But I wonder if the poster on HPC will hear anything like that?

Why don`t you start a thread after the crash telling us how much your house is losing in "value", they will probably leave that on the main board?

mystic_trev

.....has changed his tune.

There may only be a 2008 25% fall in HPs before it takes off again

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207511-aging-out-and-tired-of-waiting-for-a-crash/

westernpromise

There cannot be a worse place anywhere on the web to ask for advice about anything.

Those people have been exactly 180 degrees wrong for as long as the site has existed.

mwpt

westernpromise wrote: »

There cannot be a worse place anywhere on the web to ask for advice about anything.

Those people have been exactly 180 degrees wrong for as long as the site has existed.

Not really. Prices came down in Northern Ireland and many areas of north England. In fact, the national average only just passed the 2007 peak fairly recently didn't it?

wotsthat

mwpt wrote: »

Not really. Prices came down in Northern Ireland and many areas of north England. In fact, the national average only just passed the 2007 peak fairly recently didn't it?

The HPC formula for predicting when there will be a crash is as follows..

2008:2 = today + soon

Prices will go up, down and sideways with no regard to the formula.

MFW_ASAP

Wow, I forgot just how deluded they are on HPC. They're STILL going on about a housing crash that's just two years (and in one case 10 to 15 years away - OMG!).

It's funny how none of them are 'paying off their landlord's mortgage', they're all being subsidized by them. Absolutely crackers.

Wednesday2000

People have been predicting a house price crash for years now.:rotfl:

caronoel

mystic_trev wrote: »

Jonathan Davies has changed his tune.




http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207511-aging-out-and-tired-of-waiting-for-a-crash/

He really is a prime banana

Glad that he isnt on the TV or radio anymore and just keeps his rants to his fellow nutters over on HPC.

The irony is that this chap is supposed to be a Wealth Manager - anyone who had followed his advise on the property market since 2009 would probably have healthy grounds for a claim against the muppet.

gadgetmind

Of course, there are house price crashes, equity crashes, bond bubbles, and gold slumps. The shape and depth of these varies, as does the time required for things to get back to "normal", but the one constant is that predicting them in advance in any useful way is impossible.

TheeMaskedTurnip

caronoel wrote: »

He really is a prime banana

Glad that he isnt on the TV or radio anymore and just keeps his rants to his fellow nutters over on HPC.

The irony is that this chap is supposed to be a Wealth Manager - anyone who had followed his advise on the property market since 2009 would probably have healthy grounds for a claim against the muppet.

Is he the HPC gentleman that stuck a golf umbrella up his !!!!?