interesting yougov piece on constituency boundaries

cepheus

Generali wrote: »

That's a bit of a nonsense though. The nunber of votes a party gets is partly based on the electoral system. For example, I could vote in the constituency that I left when I moved to Aus. I don't bother because it's a Tory certainty but if it was a marginal then I would.

I suspect that what happens is that election winners tend to have concentrated voting patterns.

I don't think it's due to that though or else we would be unlikely to see such a change in bias between Blair and Cameron, the same seats would have remained marginal. After adjustments for bias Blair would have struggled to gain a majority as well in his last parliament. According to the author:

The causes are several. The Conservative-threatening Liberal Democrats have been replaced as the main third party by the more Labour-threatening Greens and UKIP. Labour has lost many of its smaller-than-average Scottish and inner-city seats. And all the while the Conservatives have honed an increasingly effective target seat strategy.