interesting yougov piece on constituency boundaries

Mistermeaner

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/electoral-bias/


Or I thought it was anyway.

Challenge in this thread is not to mention either the SNP or corbyn

Thrugelmir

PRP is the way to go. Then votes do count. Wherever one lives.

Mistermeaner

Might that lead to a hung parliament and shakey coalitions? Fptp is designed to favour large parties

ukcarper

With labour losing Scotland are the figures in first paragraph still accurate.

Mistermeaner

Appears up to date: regional map for Scotland looks current with that horrible yellow colour

Thrugelmir

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Might that lead to a hung parliament and shakey coalitions? Fptp is designed to favour large parties

Even Greece is testament to the fact that people do come to that senses when they have to. If anything it's made Greece economically more stable.

If I was in the Labour party I would considering it seriously. As without Scotland there's no longer the historic Labour heartlands. They no longer exist to a large extent.

ukcarper

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Appears up to date: regional map for Scotland looks current with that horrible yellow colour

No yellow on iPad but reading the text I don't think it is.

antrobus

Mistermeaner wrote: »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/electoral-bias/

Or I thought it was anyway.

Challenge in this thread is not to mention either the SNP or corbyn

What would be really interesting is that UKPR's conclusion that "the Conservatives need a lead of 11 percentage points over Labour to win an overall majority, while the Labour party can achieve an overall majority with a lead of about 3 percentage points" is no longer valid.

The Conservatives only recently got a working majority with a lead of only 6.5%, and the post 2015 swingometer shows that now it is Labour that needs a 12.5% lead to achieve a majority of one.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/21/pollster-john-curtice-warns-labour-majority-2020-election-improbable-politics


.

Generali

Mistermeaner wrote: »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/electoral-bias/


Or I thought it was anyway.

Challenge in this thread is not to mention either the SNP or corbyn

Fascinating, thanks. I knew a lot of it but far from all.

Given the built in disadvantages the Tories have it's remarkable that they win a majority so often.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Fascinating, thanks. I knew a lot of it but far from all.

Given the built in disadvantages the Tories have it's remarkable that they win a majority so often.

The disadvantages are not built in. They were the product of a particular set of ciircumstances. In the post war period, the political demographics of the UK were broadly neutral during the period from 1945 to 1987. From 1992 onwards a bias in favour of Labour emerged which lasted until 2010. That pro-Labour bias has now gone. Indeed, particularly if the Conservatives succeed in implementing their boundary reorganisation, we may well have a pro-Conservative bias emerging.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

The disadvantages are not built in. They were the product of a particular set of ciircumstances. In the post war period, the political demographics of the UK were broadly neutral during the period from 1945 to 1987. From 1992 onwards a bias in favour of Labour emerged which lasted until 2010. That pro-Labour bias has now gone. Indeed, particularly if the Conservatives succeed in implementing their boundary reorganisation, we may well have a pro-Conservative bias emerging.

The piece seems to disagree with you (unless I misread it) and I'd be loathe to argue psephology with Lord Ashcroft.