Corbynomics: A Dystopia

cells

TheNickster wrote: »

For a substantial number of people rents are only affordable because of housing benefit and they cannot use housing benefit to help buy a home.

Sure but they can use it to rent homes. There is no need to build more homes in say stoke-on-trent one of the cheapest places in the whole country. That some people in stoke need HB is no reason to build additional homes in stoke especially when a new build runs at ~£150k while an existing home in stoke runs at about half of that

If there is enough affordable housing being built why is home ownership falling and not just in London. In Manchester it has fallen from (if memory serves) from 72% down to 59% and in at least 2 other areas away from the SE it has fallen almost as much.

Two main reasoons, a structural change (more students, later marriage, fewer jobs for life needing more internal migration within the uk, more divorce etc etc) and also mortgage rationing (specifically self cert)

How about social housing.

but we have already concluded that about 75% of the country is more affordable than social housing. At best you can make the argument that the government should BUY existing homes from estate agents in those areas and slap a social label on it

why would/should the government spend £150k to build a new social home in stoke when it can buy one for £75k?

Also we dont need any more social homes. 17% is sufficient. In some parts over 40% of the stock is social yet people still think more is needed.

upgrading infrastructure such as roads, railways, sewers, etc. History shows that after a period of Tory governments lack of maintenancefunding has often resulted in a requirement for expensive repairs.

we already have very good infrastructure and you are too old minded. most of the transport problems will be fixed by advanced software. specifically for railways things like digital rather than analog signalling. and for roads self drive vehicles. im going to guess you dont think the government should become world best coders. maybe corybn can take a degree in coding and make it happen

The problem here is ideological. Tory governments prefer givaways to the rich who often do not spend it in the British economy but squirrel it away offshore.

yes the problem is ideological in that a lot of very silly people think the tories are this or that and refuse to look at the present to come to a conclusion about policy

what do we know about the present (very recent past)?

falling unemployment
Long term unemployment now just 1%
falling deficit
growing economy
increasing house building
increasing GDP

cells

TheNickster wrote: »

One swallow doe not make a summer.

If there is enough affordable housing being built why is home ownership falling and not just in London. In Manchester it has fallen from (if memory serves) from 72% down to 59% and in at least 2 other areas away from the SE it has fallen almost as much.

mortgage rationing & structural changes

clearly Manchester is very affordable as those buying are paying less in mortgage interest than the local council rents. Often half as much

cells

mwpt wrote: »

So basically, we've had our house price crash, except it was just the monthly affordability which crashed, due to the lowering of mortgage rates.

You need to break it down

We have had a real house price crash and a mortgage price crash in about 3/4ths of the country making that 3/4ths very cheap so cheap that you will pay less in interest, much less, for a terrace than the local council property

Of the remaining 1/4th of the country. Half are 'affordable' in that the cost is not much more than a council property and the there is London which has of course boomed in price and now costs more than it ever had. But that is only about 1/8th of the market

gadgetmind

TheNickster wrote: »

One swallow doe not make a summer.

Perhaps not but maybe try Right Move and see what you can get for your money in the "grim North".

If there is enough affordable housing being built

I'm not saying there is, but there is certainly a lot of affordable property around.

why is home ownership falling and not just in London. In Manchester it has fallen from (if memory serves) from 72% down to 59% and in at least 2 other areas away from the SE it has fallen almost as much.

I have no idea but suspect there are multiple factors. One that I've heard people grumbling about is the affordability checks that lenders now make, which go beyond most definitions of "affordability".

cells

gadgetmind wrote: »

And this is also worth reading to understand why it's planning permission that's the problem. Even Shelter agree!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordability_of_housing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Impact_of_planning_restrictions_on_house_prices

I used to think that too I have probably spent a thousand posts saying just that however I now think in about 75% of the country planning is not the limiting factor. Its mortgage availability and actual build costs (S106 CIL 'affordable housing contribution etc)

For the remaining 25% its also not that simple as just planning. For inner London the councils need to do much more to knock down the old inefficient poorly built council stock and rebuild at a much higher density. They are already doing this by knocking down some estates and rebuilding at twice the density but they really need to be doing more and building at 5x the density not twice. Outer London either needs more greenbelt freeded up for new builds or again they need to compulsory purchase lower density terrace/semis and knock down whole streets and replace with higher density terraces/flats. This wont be cheap so London will always be a premium above rUK as its build costs will always be at a premium in that they have little greenfield sites that can be used

TheNickster

cells wrote: »

mortgage rationing & structural changes

clearly Manchester is very affordable as those buying are paying less in mortgage interest than the local council rents. Often half as much

Interest rates are low because of problems with the economy.

How long do expect interest rates to stay as low as they are now.

5 years ago the economy was expected to be booming by now. It is now teetering on the point of recession.

one final point is that people on housing benefit do not get paid enough to qualify for a mortgage even if the rent (before HB is applied) is below a mortgage repayment.

TheNickster

cells wrote: »

what do we know about the present (very recent past)?

falling unemployment
Long term unemployment now just 1%

What kind of jobs have been created? Are they well paid full time jobs? or are they zero hour contract sports direct type of jobs? or are they self employed where the so called living wage does nor apply.

cells wrote: »

falling deficit

very slowly and target has been put back again.

cells wrote: »

growing economy

Only just and is teetering on the point of recession.

cells wrote: »

increasing house building

Wrong type and in the wrong place

I did read recently that private sector builders like to build 3 or 4 bedroom houses because they make more money of them (as you would expect from the private sector). Starter homes not being a priority for them.

cells wrote: »

increasing GDP

See under 'growing economy'.


Marks 3/10

Could do a lot better

westernpromise

fafafafafafasadsong wrote: »

A thought: should a taxation system be progressive or should each tax in a taxation system be progressive?

Many taxes are regressive but yet seem like a good idea such as taxes on smoking, alcohol, CO2e and sugar/soft drinks.

Local government taxes other than the poll tax have always used people's houses as a proxy for ability to pay. There's always some proxy being used; with the poll tax the proxy was how many adults of working age there were at an address.

What it exposed was that there is a hard core of people who feel entitled to everything for nothing and who see taxation as something to be applied vindictively to punish people they envy and hate.The entire national agenda should be about all of us being tapped to fund them.

Blair buried this attitude from daylight for a few years, but this view that what's yours is mine is in the Labour Party's DNA, I'm afraid; Labour without envy is like spaghetti without pasta. Blair thought he could take the word "Brighton" out of the stick of rock but unfortunately this left nothing of the rock.

This foaming hatred and cupidity, like syphilis, never truly went away; it disappeared for a few years but only in order to come back worse. The selfishness and entitlement of such people is bestial and shameful, and it's why I have difficulty seeing the Labour Party as anything other than abject moral incompetents.

westernpromise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Critical thinking at its finest. :T

In practice it always means "anyone making more than me".

westernpromise

seven-day-weekend wrote: »

We bought in 2015 a two-bedrooom semi detached bungalow with a garage and large garden in a nice part of Wolves for £138k.

My son's decent-sized two bed flat with garage in a nice part of Wolves cost £65k in 2012 and last year I bought a year-old two bedroom flat with ensuite and a parking space in an OK area for £85k.

We don't all have London prices.

Sorry, a what???!