Concrete over the greenbelt. Generation Rent is at breaking point

Generali

Cornucopia wrote: »

That's a good question, and one that I've asked property bears before (and received no response).

The difficulty in coming to an answer for a 3-4 bedroom house, is that that purchase, for most people, is some way down the line from their first purchase, which is the one linked more directly to earnings.

We can come up with a purchase scenario, though:

FTB: 4x Salary = £100k (in many areas), with a £5k-10k deposit

Owned for 5 years with 3.5%pa HPI = £118k, £28k equity.

New mortgage: 3x Both Salaries (£27k+£22k) = £175k + additional savings, maybe £10k = purchase price of £185k

These figures (£100k for a 1-2 bed flat, and £185k for a 3-bed House) are not far off the figures in my area (Medway Towns) which is still commutable (at a cost) to London.

I don't dispute your numbers but the problem is where do you fit having kids into that scenario.

You leave Uni aged 22-23. Spend perhaps a couple of years saving a deposit so are now 24-25.

You then still require two incomes five years later (aged 29-30) to buy the three bed house.

When does a woman get to fit in having kids and how can they afford childcare? At age 30 a woman's fertility starts to decline quite quickly. Lest we forget a man is a sperm factory whereas a woman is an egg warehouse. Once the eggs have degraded or been expelled there ain't no more coming along.

Economics trumps politics but biology trumps economics.

remorseless

Cornucopia wrote: »

These figures (£100k for a 1-2 bed flat, and £185k for a 3-bed House) are not far off the figures in my area (Medway Towns) which is still commutable (at a cost) to London.

I should have asked how much it should be in sqm/sqf! a bit more relative for pricing!

£185k for a 3-bed house is pretty affordable. That is a house, it is a luxury. For an average family (2 parents, 2 adults) that means a room for each child and parents, family rooms, backyard, driveway, etc.

If they were cheaper, people would still complain.

cakeforbrains

remorseless wrote: »

but do you need a 3-bed house? How much do you think a house should be worth where you are?

No, we need a four bedroomed house, and we can afford one since my husband earns about 2.5 times the UK average wage.

London prices are pushed up by 'foreigners'. Our prices are pushed up by second-home owners and people retiring to the coast.

I say there's plenty of land for building (green-belt or not). Just build.

remorseless

cakeforbrains wrote: »

No, we need a four bedroomed house, and we can afford one since my husband earns about 2.5 times the UK average wage.

You are sorted. No need to complain then.

Cornucopia

Generali wrote: »

I don't dispute your numbers but the problem is where do you fit having kids into that scenario.

You leave Uni aged 22-23. Spend perhaps a couple of years saving a deposit so are now 24-25.

You then still require two incomes five years later (aged 29-30) to buy the three bed house.

When does a woman get to fit in having kids and how can they afford childcare? At age 30 a woman's fertility starts to decline quite quickly. Lest we forget a man is a sperm factory whereas a woman is an egg warehouse. Once the eggs have degraded or been expelled there ain't no more coming along.

Economics trumps politics but biology trumps economics.

Yes, I agree with all of that.

In reality, my numbers are fairly conservative. The reason being that I wanted to test the hypothesis of average earners having access to housing.

The reality of child-rearing is that you have to just get on with it. You could, at a push, cope in a 2-bed flat with 1-2 small children, and then be looking for a larger property as they grow up.

It's not ideal, but we are talking about people who some claim are completely marginalised in the property market, so it's not unreasonable that they should be making hypothetical sacrifices in our hypothetical scenario.

My personal view is that the 50% target for University is unnecessarily high, but even then, it leaves 50% who don't go. I certainly wouldn't advocate that the people in my scenario should spend the time or the money on attending Uni, if they could be earning.

cakeforbrains

remorseless wrote: »

You are sorted. No need to complain then.

We're sorted, but I can still 'complain' on behalf of those who aren't.

remorseless

Cornucopia wrote: »

The reality of child-rearing is that you have to just get on with it. You could, at a push, cope in a 2-bed flat with 1-2 small children, and then be looking for a larger property as they grow up.

Reading this I don't think it's foreigners pushing the prices up, its' the "notion" that kids need their own room and those expectations that push the price up.

Did you all grow up with your own room?

ukcarper

Perhaps what is needed is more suitable properties for older people to move to. I'm occupying a 4 bed house and don't need it but I'm not prepared to move to a retirement flat with high monthly outgoings and no garage.

CLAPTON

ukcarper wrote: »

Perhaps what is needed is more suitable properties for older people to move to. I'm occupying a 4 bed house and don't need it but I'm not prepared to move to a retirement flat with high monthly outgoings and no garage.

why do you think no suitable places are being built for people like you?

ukcarper

CLAPTON wrote: »

why do you think no suitable places are being built for people like you?

No idea but if you look at the price of a 2 bed semi bungalow in many areas they are not far short of a small 4 bed detached so the demand is obviously there. Probably more profitable to cram in Small terraced houses onto a site.