Scotland and Greece

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

The SNP have stated that they wished to increase spending faster than inflation and then made claims, discredited by the IFS, that they could reduce tax avoidance to make up the revenue gap.

They claimed that in April. Perhaps they have belatedly become converts to the idea that spending in the UK needs to fall. I doubt it but am happy to be corrected as always.

Again statistically correct that modest 0.5% spending increase is faster than inflation, but shouldn't we be encouraging inflation to get back to the 2% target?

If that were achieved, the 0.5% increased spending would be below inflation

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Facts.....

Short termism and complete failure to read the post.

Your "Facts" are based on the dependency on oil and the current rate for a barrel of oil, yet fail to consider how we diversify and move away from that dependency on oil.

Try engaging, instead of repeatedly spamming your latest image preference.
We saw it earlier.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Short termism and complete failure to read the post.

Your "Facts" are based on the dependency on oil and the current rate for a barrel of oil, yet fail to consider how we diversify and move away from that dependency on oil.
.

Fact 1: The Scottish economy is dependant on oil

Fact 2: Scottish public spending vastly exceeds sustainable levels for our current economic position and is currently heavily subsidised by rUK

Fact 3: Scotland without the subsidy would have to cut it's cloth to fit, and impose Greek levels of Austerity on public spending

Fact 4: No economy in history has achieved the growth rates required to overcome such a large deficit without painful cuts

When any of the pro-indy crowd or SNP can come up with a realistic plan for independence which...

1) Admits the dire fiscal starting position of a iScotland

2) Admits the savage cuts and austerity that would be required in order to avoid bankruptcy until we can rebalance the economy

3) Explains to the Scottish people it would likely take decades to rebalance the economy and return to todays living standards, if it ever happened, and there is a real risk it would not.

and

4) Asks for our support on that basis

Then you might have a chance of achieving a better Scotland (as you see it), of course, you might also find most people don't want to see a decade or more of reduced living standards, lower pay, higher taxes, and slashed public services.

But at least you'd be honest....

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But at least you'd be honest....

I'm always honest and have long advocated that an Independent Scotland would cost the electorate in the short to medium term.

I've also said that I'd be willing to have that if there was a potential to improve the future for my children and grand children.

That's my opinion rightly or wrongly.

Let's be honest then Hamish, you are only interest in the here, now and yourself

Bridgeton_Boy

Dont really think that you can compare Greece with a Scotland which is independent of the UK. The tragedy which is Greece ( sorry no pun intended) was that it was allowed to join the Eurozone on false financial information from its government and also from Eurozone members ( like Germany & France ) who were prepared to turn a blind eye to this in their rush to get as many countries on board as possible in this project. The upshot for Greece is that the low Euro currency value and interest rates gained the German economy but not small countries like Greece ( or Ireland / Portugal etc). A succession of corrupt Greek governments failed to take any appropriate action and now they have an economy with debts incurred on loans issued and conditions made by the Trioka in financial bail outs which have just about destroyed this small country.
Scotland I would think would look at the mess that has been created in the Eurozone and would not enter into such a corrupt cartel. If they play their cards right like Norway and Iceland ( where they jail their criminal bankers by the way ) they could become a member of EFTA and trade with the EU but not have to become full member of the EU. The natural resources of Scotland and their positive use of renewables and diverse industries such as IT, engineering, fishing, farming, food and drink industry and tourism and a good standard of FE education establishments put them on a strong footing to be a successful independent nation.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm always honest and have long advocated that an Independent Scotland would cost the electorate in the short to medium term.

But I've never seen you admit it would require Greek levels of austerity to survive.

Or that 'short to medium term' might be decades of greatly reduced living standards.

I've also said that I'd be willing to have that if there was a potential to improve the future for my children and grand children.

That's my opinion rightly or wrongly.

There is the potential to improve the future now. Why do we need to take 10 steps backwards first?

Let's be honest then Hamish, you are only interest in the here, now and yourself

I'm completely honest that I care more about protecting the living standards of ordinary people for the next few decades than I care about having a Scottish passport.

Flag waving MacJingoism does nothing for me whatsoever.

CLAPTON

Bridgeton_Boy wrote: »

Dont really think that you can compare Greece with a Scotland which is independent of the UK. The tragedy which is Greece ( sorry no pun intended) was that it was allowed to join the Eurozone on false financial information from its government and also from Eurozone members ( like Germany & France ) who were prepared to turn a blind eye to this in their rush to get as many countries on board as possible in this project. The upshot for Greece is that the low Euro currency value and interest rates gained the German economy but not small countries like Greece ( or Ireland / Portugal etc). A succession of corrupt Greek governments failed to take any appropriate action and now they have an economy with debts incurred on loans issued and conditions made by the Trioka in financial bail outs which have just about destroyed this small country.
Scotland I would think would look at the mess that has been created in the Eurozone and would not enter into such a corrupt cartel. If they play their cards right like Norway and Iceland ( where they jail their criminal bankers by the way ) they could become a member of EFTA and trade with the EU but not have to become full member of the EU. The natural resources of Scotland and their positive use of renewables and diverse industries such as IT, fishing, farming, food and drink industry and tourism and a good standard of FE education establishments put them on a strong footing to be a successful independent nation.

The SNP are 100% committed to joining the EU.

In fact they argue they are already full members and won't even have to apply to join.

Of course they refuse to discuss the currency question or their budget deficient issue so starting on the same corrupt path that Greece followed.

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But I've never seen you admit it would require Greek levels of austerity to survive.

Or that 'short to medium term' might be decades of greatly reduced living standards.

Two points, I disagree that it would take Greek levels of austerity. That's your opinion to sensationalise your point.
You like to do that

I have a long time ago (IIRC) admitted it could take a number of years increased costs.
I'm not going to waste my time searching for it, but I can assure you I have.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There is the potential to improve the future now. Why do we need to take 10 steps backwards first?

To use an analogy.
You do realise that as you change up the gears, you actually lose momentum and slow down before re-engaging the clutch.

Taking stock and a few steps back to adjust can allow you to achieve greater results.

You can't just go head strong, foot down, flat out and achieve the full potential.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm completely honest that I care more about protecting the living standards of ordinary people for the next few decades than I care about having a Scottish passport.

Flag waving MacJingoism does nothing for me whatsoever.

Your not being honest here.
Admit it, your only interested in the here, now and yourself

antrobus

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Two points, I disagree that it would take Greek levels of austerity. ....

It depends on what exactly you think constitutes a "Greek level of austerity".

Given that you are talking about a deficit of £12.4 billion (8.1% of GDP) for 2013/14, even with an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, compared to £97.3 billion (5.6% of GDP) for the UK as a whole, there is clearly a requirement for more austerity, not less.

And of course you have to factor in the fact that the "illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue" of around £4 billion was based on Brent Crude trading at $100 a barrel, as opposed to $50, so that's another hole to plug. Would the required fiscal contraction of 2% of GDP required to offset the loss in oil revenues qualify as a "Greek". I don't know really, but it is certainly in the same ballpark.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Two points, I disagree that it would take Greek levels of austerity.

Then explain how we get our deficit down to acceptable levels without it.... The UK deficit is falling, Scotland's is rising and wholly unsustainable without subsidy.

To use an analogy.
You do realise that as you change up the gears, you actually lose momentum and slow down before re-engaging the clutch.

And to use another analogy, when you drive a car into a ditch at 60 mph, the usual result is the car gets smashed up and people get badly hurt.

Most people will recover from their injuries but will have to endure pain and suffering for some time. The car may be repairable but will likely never be as good again.

Sometimes however, driving into the ditch results in the car being a write off and people being killed.

And very rarely, people walk away with only minor injuries and the car can be fixed with only cosmetic damage.

Until you do it however, you don't know which will be the outcome.

Why would we take that chance?