Hey generali I don't agree with your signature

vivatifosi

cells wrote: »

But we can predict more or less what the future holds just saying no one can predict it is just a silly empty statement

here are some pretty concrete predictions for you for the year 2050

The worlds population will be higher
The world will get richer
India will be more or less where china is today
The world will build about +1.5 billion homes by then
The world will be using more FF in 2050 than in 2000

You see the world as black and white, I see shades of grey.

The points you have stated do reflect the direction of travel and may well be the likely outcomes, but with the exception of demographic trends are they truly certain?

Going back to fossil fuels, much of the discussion is around disruptive technologies, but what of other issues? 35 years ago we were still in the Cold War. There had been no Gulf War or Arab Spring. Boko Haram had not brought chaos to Nigeria. The Arabian peninsula was more stable than it is now. Nobody had heard of Al Qaeda let alone ISIL/Daesh.

The world needs a constant supply of energy, for that reason it will need to consider alternatives. We've talked about batteries and solar, but also nuclear could play a big part. Similarly on the side of fossil fuels, wider extraction of say shale oil in more politically stable economies will tip the balance back the other way.

Fossil fuels face the green lobby, other technologies and probably most important in terms of potential for disruption, geopolitical uncertainty. For those reasons I don't think anyone can be certain what will happen 35 years from now.

Mistermeaner

globalds wrote: »

Petroleum by products ? Is that the point you are making ?

EDIT

It is probably easier in a discussion based forum to just say things rather than turn it into a kind of quiz ..Slows the flow down ..next time ..If you think you know something ..just pop right up and say it. I am more than happy to be informed of the less well known parts of a subject.

Hi sorry for slowing the flow that was not my intention. You are correct the point I was making, as per the original post, is that even if you find alternative energy sources fossil fuels are still really useful stuff that would still be required for a myriad of other uses than just energy, hence I don't see the age of oil ever 'ending' in the same way the stone age did.

Intent was to kick off some debate which I think has kind of worked. I've found it interesting anyway.

Generali

ggb1979 wrote: »

Hi sorry for slowing the flow that was not my intention. You are correct the point I was making, as per the original post, is that even if you find alternative energy sources fossil fuels are still really useful stuff that would still be required for a myriad of other uses than just energy, hence I don't see the age of oil ever 'ending' in the same way the stone age did.

Intent was to kick off some debate which I think has kind of worked. I've found it interesting anyway.

Love the new signature!!!

It is an interesting discussion you started.

The current Saudi minister said that he reckons oil output would be of the order of 0 by 2050 about a month ago at a conference in Paris my boss went to. He's not just going to say that for a laugh so either:

1. He (the minister) thinks it's true
or
2. He wants other people to think it's true as it suits his ends, whatever they may be

Martyn1981

cells wrote: »

Its going to be a terrible problem if battery cars are successful

an average car lasts what 10 years?

Imagine throwing away a 250kg battery pack every 10 years

And the world would need to build and scrap 200 million such cars a year

When the batteries are no longer suitable for automotive use, they are still in very decent order for stationary storage. Not only are off-gridders using packs from scrapped cars (perhaps 20+kWh storage for £1k), but now the big boys are doing it too:

Nissan to recycle electric vehicle batteries for commercial energy storage products

Energy storage project gives EV batteries a second life

Mart.

cells

Generali wrote: »

Love the new signature!!!

It is an interesting discussion you started.

The current Saudi minister said that he reckons oil output would be of the order of 0 by 2050 about a month ago at a conference in Paris my boss went to. He's not just going to say that for a laugh so either:

1. He (the minister) thinks it's true
or
2. He wants other people to think it's true as it suits his ends, whatever they may be

Maybe he is being philosophical.
When I die does the world continue?

But because he is an oil man its, when I die do the well continue?

Anyway he is definite wrong as coal would need to be in retreat well before pil starts retreating and coal use is continuing to grow



PS. He might be talking about oil revenue. If self drive cars kick in oil demand plummets we might also find that self drive tech is so productive that government take the opertunity to burden it with say only EVs as self drive. If something like that happened oil could well go to <$10 and its worldwide volume crash in half. That would mean a 95% fall in oil revenue (which if I believe that I would call it the end of the oil business) but it would still mean the world produces 40-50mbpd of the stuff. It would go from a product able to support whole nations just to a commodity like corn or sugar just profitable with a 10% or so margin

Mistermeaner

What was his reasoning? Sure he is involved but so are billions of others and he's not a market shifter.

Generali

ggb1979 wrote: »

What was his reasoning? Sure he is involved but so are billions of others and he's not a market shifter.

I'm not sure because I wasn't there. I'm going to find out if there's a transcript available for the conference.

cells

Martyn1981 wrote: »

When the batteries are no longer suitable for automotive use, they are still in very decent order for stationary storage. Not only are off-gridders using packs from scrapped cars (perhaps 20+kWh storage for £1k), but now the big boys are doing it too:

Nissan to recycle electric vehicle batteries for commercial energy storage products

Energy storage project gives EV batteries a second life

Mart.

Even the pyramids are falling down mart
Nothing lasts forever

Mistermeaner

Generali wrote: »

I'm not sure because I wasn't there. I'm going to find out if there's a transcript available for the conference.

A brief summary will do

wotsthat

cells wrote: »

Nothing lasts forever

Except the national grid?