Hey generali I don't agree with your signature

purch

Generali wrote: »

I reckon he probably has a better idea than the rest of us.

There are numerous "google experts" on this forum who will beg to differ.

cells

Generali wrote: »

We had a speaker at work recently talking about the is reguuture for solar. He reckoned that individuals in Australia using solar panels and batteries would be able to produce electricity more cheaply than the electricity company by 2025 and for less than the cost of the 'poles and wires' (i.e. the way of delivering electricity from power station to home) by 2030.

The latter means that even if companies can produce power at nil cost, the cost of maintaining the delivery structure still makes them obsolete.

National grids are extremely robust and extremely cheap. In the uk the cost is approx 10p per day per house. So any alternative needs to best that and 10p a day is hard to beat especially considering that buys you 100KW of instant in off power and takes no space and already exists

cells

Generali wrote: »

Well my point is rather that the economics and engineering will say Yes! and in countries away from the northern and southern extremes of the world a lot quicker than many imagine.

Already with a small subsidy, which keeps getting cut, you can make a profit in Aus from having solar panels on your roof. Once storage becomes viable, which I understand to be very close, Australian households won't need to be attached to a grid. Once households start to withdraw from that grid, the costs for those that remain become higher and higher as most of the costs of an electricity grid are fixed. That forces more and more people to solar.

As for large scale users for whom a roof isn't going to supply their needs? The CSIRO is working on that:

http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/EF/Areas/Solar/Solar-thermal

My bold.

Most people simply don't understand how cheap and effective and amazing a national grid is.

Why would you disconnect from 10p a day?

Generali

cells wrote: »

Most people simply don't understand how cheap and effective and amazing a national grid is.

Why would you disconnect from 10p a day?

The Grid in Aus costs a lot more than that because, I assume, that we are more spread out.

The grid in the UK may cost 10p a day but the sun shines for free and IIRC electricity bills in the UK are a lot more than £9 a quarter, plus the gas bill of course.

When you buy a solar and battery system presumably you are buying a means of generating as well as storing power: you are not just looking to replace the means of getting power to your home you are also looking to replace the means of generating that power.

The problem that I believe that centralised power generation in Aus will face, and perhaps the UK too, is that as more people generate power, the fewer people there are to pay very high fixed costs and so the greater the incentive is to generate your own power.

Martyn1981

cells wrote: »

especially considering that buys you 100KW of instant in off power and takes no space and already exists

Not sure I understand that statement. Did you mean 80 to 100A (20 to 25kW)?

Mart.

cells

vivatifosi wrote: »

It was less than 30 years between the Wright Bros first flight and Lindbergh crossing the Atlantic. It was fewer than 35 years between Lindbergh crossing the Atlantic and Gagarin orbiting earth. Second guessing technological advances 35 years out, who knows what projects will win and which will fail?

I'd also be amazed if either of you were still hanging out here in 35 years discussing who was right. Perhaps I should bookmark the thread, just in case.

Yet 100 years on I've never been on a spaceship and the miles I do flying pales in comparison to the miles I drive train and walk....

it isn't a question about technology. No amount of technology can get over the fact that only a finite amount of sunshine hits a square meter of earth and no amount of technology can get over the fact that we live on a rotating planet.

Planes and rockets was a not so simple matter of getting them lighter and their engines more powerful. There was no reason to doubt that that could work.

cells

Generali wrote: »

The Grid in Aus costs a lot more than that because, I assume, that we are more spread out.

The grid in the UK may cost 10p a day but the sun shines for free and IIRC electricity bills in the UK are a lot more than £9 a quarter, plus the gas bill of course.

When you buy a solar and battery system presumably you are buying a means of generating as well as storing power: you are not just looking to replace the means of getting power to your home you are also looking to replace the means of generating that power.

The problem that I believe that centralised power generation in Aus will face, and perhaps the UK too, is that as more people generate power, the fewer people there are to pay very high fixed costs and so the greater the incentive is to generate your own power.

I understand your argument lots of people make it but its completely wrong. Lets assume your view holds true and the grid in the UK shrinks to 1/10th of what it was you think thats going to make it unviable....but we already have a grid 1/10th the size of the UK its called the irish grid and it functions just fine

A national grid is one of the simplest cheapest and long lastig inventions there is. Even if we lived on a star locked planet (that is to say the earth did not spin) then PV would win hands down. Well even in such a world a national grid would exist as its 10p a day cost provides back up and power levels not available without a grid.

so im as certain as I can be that national grids will stay even if solar panels wrre free

cells

Generali wrote: »

My argument is that before long, domestic rooftop solar will be cheaper than buying power from the electric company, even without subsidies. My SiL has solar on her roof with a small subsidy she can pay for the solar panels and the interest on the finance on the solar panels and still turn a small profit each quarter, even in winter.

In 4-5 years she will have repaid the debt and have an even bigger cheque coming from the utility firm.

Now in mitigation, she does receive a subsidy and also she is only running a split system air con unit, not a full blown reverse cycle one. She is a SAHM though living just north of Sydney, runs a business making cakes from home and likes the house hot in winter (25C!) and cold in summer.

A quick Google will show you what is happening regarding solar panel prices over time. The problem until now has been storage but my opinion is that is in the process of being solved.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/australia-lures-tesla-as-solar-battery-race-accelerates-20150707-gi6rh4.html

The CSIRO link covers some ideas of how to store large-scale solar.

As an aside:



Solar may not be a reasonable alternative to use in the UK because of the lack of sun in winter but I can see basically every home owner having solar power in a decade or so in Aus.



I was just pulling your leg. If you really want one, click on quick links and choose 'Edit Signature'. Then you edit your signature in a panel like the one you use to submit your posts.

If solar PV and batteries got so cheap why wouldn't big central solar PV plants and battery mountains not be cheaper than installing and maintaining a million small systems on individual roofs?

Very few people keep their own chickens or pigs or grow their own wheat and potatoes even though they are eternally free instead we buy them from a central producer. Why would PV and Batteries be any different?

cells

Generali wrote: »

The Grid in Aus costs a lot more than that because, I assume, that we are more spread out. .

Large (in size) countries tend to have multiple grids. Eg china has 7 grids the USA has 3. Australia might have multiple too.

also its name is misleading. Even the UK is more like multiple local grids with some interconnection rather than one national one. It is the reason power stations are dotted around the country and not all in one location.

For this reason you will find that grids in low density nations are also very cheap to run and operate especially in highly urbanised nations like Australia (although the national density is low most people live densely in big towns and cities)

cells

Generali wrote: »

but the sun shines for free

That should probably read, the sun exists for free

Well coal oil and gas exist for free too