China

Broken_Biscuits

Am interested to know people's thoughts on china funds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-03/china-makes-index-future-speculation-more-costly-as-stocks-dip

i'm sure most have been following their history setting fall over the last 3 weeks or so. Is there still more to go or do we think now is the time to buy in?

Personally I only started investing properly at the start of this year but decided to favour India over China for emerging markets. Over the long term i see India as a better investment, however, with such a significant drop in China markets there must be an opportunity to be had here? Can they in your opinion drop a little (a lot??) more still?

obviously no one can predict the future. Just interested in opinions of those looking to invest and of those sitting on a small lose currently.

thanks in advance

masonic

They could certainly drop lower. They are still up over 6 months and the average China fund has only fallen around 10% from the April peak. Losses of 60%+ have occurred in the not too distant past.

jamesd

Don't try to catch a falling knife. The Chinese government is clearly concerned and acting. Best to wait until there's proof that they have succeeded.

I'm not selling but I'm also not buying. Why not hold off for a bit more Greek resolution then buy into Europe instead? Or why not look at some of the really niece 10-12% or so secured lending that's readily doable via P2P?

cloud_dog

There are no guarantees and you may have to watch your investment lose money but it is at these times of uncertainty where it can be beneficial to make investments.

Depending on the OPs situation (personally) I would consider a monthly investment plan but, the psychology of seeing what you bought last month worth less than what you buy this month (etc etc) is something you will need to conquer.

The reason I see this as a viable option is for exactly the same reason you have posted. Its gone down and you are unsure whether to invest (hoping it doesn't continue to decline). If it had gone up for 3 weeks you would still be unsure (hoping it might fall back a bit before investing or thinking 'damn, I missed the boat, too late now').

EDIT: I am a seasoned investor (but don't confuse that with 'good' ) so, as an example.....

I have a largish holding in a stock, call it company A, acquired over a period of time with me using my skills, intelligence, and experience to time my investment purchases. Average buy price 5p

Because I beleive in the value of the stock I wanted to invest some of my DD CTF money in to the stock. I couldn't get a feel for where the SP might go so I set up a monthly investment plan. Result, her average buy price 3p.... go figure

Broken_Biscuits

jamesd wrote: »

Don't try to catch a falling knife. The Chinese government is clearly concerned and acting. Best to wait until there's proof that they have succeeded.

I'm not selling but I'm also not buying. Why not hold off for a bit more Greek resolution then buy into Europe instead? Or why not look at some of the really niece 10-12% or so secured lending that's readily doable via P2P?

Im a fan of CAPE and so do like a nice knife trick.

http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation?SortBy=Shiller_PE

the stats available for free are always out of date, but in this case they show the point china has dropped down to approx 3 months ago. 20 is the mid point that they are now at where history suggests they could go either way. Dropping just a few more percent would probably be enough to get me interested.

just to give a little background on myself so people don't panic about my risky attitudes...
im one of those that saves approx 40% of my income. High interest bank accounts, balanced monthly contributions to a balanced portfolio and a fair whack in what i consider to be the safest p2p, ratesetter.

when im talking about taking "gambles" or "playing" with CAPE im doing it with about a quarter of new money each month. Worst case scenario is i lose the lot and only save 30%. Still way above the uk average of under 6% as it was last year.