Meanwhile in China....

cells

Generali wrote: »

I think you're convinced because you don't want to be convinced.

It's pretty obvious: if people are prepared to overpay vastly for an asset then investment will be directed to producing more of that asset. If that overpayment is a temporary thing then the price signal makes for a production of a whole lot of assets that are likely to end up under-utilised.

Read up on the South Sea Bubble or the Railway Mania for older examples.

Its quite possible that my brain has a bias that im not aware of but I don't think I am making a judgement. Im stating a fact which is that Ireland has fewer homes than France per capita. The slight judgment in my part is then concluding that its difficult to call Ireland a bubble with excess homes but not France who has even more homes or Germany who has even more homes.

Many people are not aware of Ireland recent history Ireland went from a very poor European country to a very rich one very rapidly. She built a lot of homes to 'catch up' which is why she only has a little more homes per capita than the UK

cells

Also a quick google search suggest average house prices in Ireland are €195,000 euro now, that doesn't seem a bargain basement overbuilt now crashed depression prices. That seems pretty close to the England and wales average of ~£180k (and if you exclude the global city that is London then the England average its even lower)


http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-house-prices-2-2180719-Jun2015/

Just stumbled across that link the comments are interesting in that they read like the views on UK house prices. Too expensive and rents too high seems to be the consensus not that tjere are ghost estates with homes for 2 ha penny

Generali

cells wrote: »

surely economic activity is not a zero sum game. Eg if the UK upped its house building to 400,000 units a year spending £60B a year extra creating that housing it doesn't mean we spend £60B a year less on constructing other stuff?

In investment terms it is.

There is an economic truism where investment = savings. As savings are limited, investment is limited.

As a result, if an economy is suckered in to investing huge amounts into a bubble where prices are temporarily elevated it isn't investing that money elsewhere.

In fact then you start to get second order effects. Because the economy invested in a less than optimal way, GDP and thus savings will be depressed. That means that there is less money available for investment in future.

Generali

cells wrote: »

Its quite possible that my brain has a bias that im not aware of but I don't think I am making a judgement. Im stating a fact which is that Ireland has fewer homes than France per capita. The slight judgment in my part is then concluding that its difficult to call Ireland a bubble with excess homes but not France who has even more homes or Germany who has even more homes.

Many people are not aware of Ireland recent history Ireland went from a very poor European country to a very rich one very rapidly. She built a lot of homes to 'catch up' which is why she only has a little more homes per capita than the UK

In Ireland, oversupply is such that housing has been demolished by the state:.

http://www.citylab.com/housing/2013/11/ireland-will-bulldoze-40-vacant-housing-developments-only-1260-go/7627/

In France numbers are probably skewed by the long term move of people from country to city. Similarly, I would imagine that there is still a lot of East-West internal migration leaving empty property behind in Germany.

antrobus

cells wrote: »

I'm not convinced that the info on either of those two links is credible enough to draw any conclusion....

The Guardian cites their source of the Irish data is the Irish National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis. Indeed, they are also the source of that figure of 621 ghost estates as well. The National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis sounds pretty credible to me. Certainly a bit more credible than Some Guy Off The Internet.:)

cells wrote: »

...also empty homes does not necessarily mean an oversupply. ....

But it's a good start.

cells wrote: »

....Ireland has the equivalent of an ONS I forget what they call it nut if you can find an empty homes figure on that it would be more concrete....

Central Staistics Office.

The number of vacant dwellings totalled 289,451 in April 2011, of which 168,427 were vacant houses, 61,629 were vacant apartments and 59,395 were vacant holiday homes.

http://www.cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pressreleases/2012pressreleases/pressreleasecensus2011profile4theroofoverourheads/

That is still a lot for a country of just 4.6 million people even if you knock off the 'holiday homes'.

cells wrote: »

...also as I've mentioned before. Ireland has fewer homes than France but more than the UK (per capita) so its hard to say they have a great surplus

France has 2.4 million empty homes.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

...In France numbers are probably skewed by the long term move of people from country to city. ....

In France the numbers are skewed because they count everything as a home; houseboats, caravans, hotels .....

padington

antrobus wrote: »

In France the numbers are skewed because they count everything as a home; houseboats, caravans, hotels .....

How did you get to be so damn knowledgable ?

cells

Generali wrote: »

In investment terms it is.

There is an economic truism where investment = savings. As savings are limited, investment is limited.

As a result, if an economy is suckered in to investing huge amounts into a bubble where prices are temporarily elevated it isn't investing that money elsewhere.

In fact then you start to get second order effects. Because the economy invested in a less than optimal way, GDP and thus savings will be depressed. That means that there is less money available for investment in future.

I don't agree at all with that. Clearly economic activity ia not a zero sum game

Using housing as the example if the UK went to 400,000 homes built per year imo that would be a straight £60B boost to economic activity other thibgs would not suffer (eg we would not build less cars or ships or office buildings if we built more homes)

Also there are secondary positive effects to more economic activity. The primarytwo being tthat employment goes up and so does productivity

cells

antrobus wrote: »

The Guardian cites their source of the Irish data is the Irish National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis. Indeed, they are also the source of that figure of 621 ghost estates as well. The National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis sounds pretty credible to me. Certainly a bit more credible than Some Guy Off The Internet.:)



But it's a good start.



Central Staistics Office.

The number of vacant dwellings totalled 289,451 in April 2011, of which 168,427 were vacant houses, 61,629 were vacant apartments and 59,395 were vacant holiday homes.

http://www.cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pressreleases/2012pressreleases/pressreleasecensus2011profile4theroofoverourheads/

That is still a lot for a country of just 4.6 million people even if you knock off the 'holiday homes'.



France has 2.4 million empty homes.

Why are houses so expensive in Ireland (€195k euro average price) if there are so mant theu are having to knock them down?

By comparison house prices in england and walea are now ~£180k (excluding London average house prices in England and wales are closer to £120k)

So how are prices in Ireland at €195k euro cheap depressed they are knocking them down.....and over in England prices of £120k are expensive massive shortage much more needs to be built?

So once more I am saying ireland may have very local house excess problems in a few areas but almost certainly not nationally especially as the average house there costs more than the average house in wales Scotland france Germany and England (minus London)

mwpt

Generali wrote: »

I think you're convinced because you don't want to be convinced.

It's pretty obvious: if people are prepared to overpay vastly for an asset then investment will be directed to producing more of that asset.

Pity we're not seeing this in London housing.