Asking prices up 3% in a month according to June rightmove report ...

PixelPound

padington wrote: »

You get structural demand and speculative demand though which are quite different. Speculative demand being more related to a possible future crash. I would argue all investor properties are bought with speculative demand and that more and more are being bought in this way, which does suggest a good old bubble could be building.

However, I think it will yet blow up to be massively bigger than it is now and will crash down to higher than it is now. So right now, still nothing to worry about.

Hence the crazy current speculative demand.

That's not a crash though!If you crashtrolls talk of short term undulations in housing price trends as crashes no wonder so many people don't take you seriously . The market will go through cycles of heating up and cooling down, but longterm trend will be upwards.

padington

nic_c wrote: »

That's not a crash though!If you crashtrolls talk of short term undulations in housing price trends as crashes no wonder so many people don't take you seriously . The market will go through cycles of heating up and cooling down, but longterm trend will be upwards.

Crash troll, moi ? :rotfl:

Graham_Devon

padington wrote: »

Crash troll, moi ? :rotfl:

You said prices might go down one day.

You are therefore a troll. Welcome to the club!

Had to laugh though, one of the most uber optimistic on house price increases gets labelled a crash troll simply because you accept price might realign one day!

chewmylegoff

padington wrote: »

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/articles/property-news/prices-surge-to-new-record-as-buyers-act-but-sellers-hold-back

The crashists could never have been so wrong.

Harringey down 1% YOY. Second worst performing London Borough. Oh no.....

PixelPound

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You said prices might go down one day.

You are therefore a troll. Welcome to the club!

Had to laugh though, one of the most uber optimistic on house price increases gets labelled a crash troll simply because you accept price might realign one day!

Glad it brought a smile/laugh

mwpt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Supply/Demand is always the cause.

There is nothing else.

I would probably classify myself as a HPI sceptic. I believe in the fundamentals of supply/demand and as long as rent prices are increasing, house prices will too because the asset can yield better than most other investments (in the current low yield world). But the rent price vs house price graphs just don't indicate that supply/demand are the only drivers in the housing market.

Bob and Alice currently rent and pay £1700 pm, because that is the limit of what their salaries allow. They want to buy and have £100k deposit. At current interest rates of 2%, they can "afford" to borrow £400k (repayments of £1700), giving them a total purchasing power of £500k for a similar property to the one they currently rent.

Now, in an alternate reality, Bub and Ellis also rent a place for £1700 and want to buy, also have a £100k deposit. But in this reality, interest rates never went down and are 6%. The max mortgage they can afford to make repayments on is £265k giving them a total purchasing power of £365k. And that I believe would be approximately what the same property that today costs £500k would cost had we not seen interest rates slashed.

I always try to tread carefully when discussing this stuff because it's so emotive to all of us. So if you disagree, please go easy

ruggedtoast

So, if my house is worth £200,000 and the house I want to upgrade to is worth £300,000 I need to find £100,000.

Then if while I am saving up, house prices go up 10%, which means my house is now worth £220,000. And I go out and groin thrust and celebrate with the boomers, who incidentally probably own the house I want to buy. But then the house I want is now £330,000, meaning I need £110,000.

So In this scenario I am better off in what way?

ukcarper

ruggedtoast wrote: »

So, if my house is worth £200,000 and the house I want to upgrade to is worth £300,000 I need to find £100,000.

Then if while I am saving up, house prices go up 10%, which means my house is now worth £220,000. And I go out and groin thrust and celebrate with the boomers, who incidentally probably own the house I want to buy. But then the house I want is now £330,000, meaning I need £110,000.

So In this scenario I am better off in what way?

Always thus, by the way I'm a boomer and not prone to groin thrusting I think I might cause myself a permanent injury if I tried.

PixelPound

Do house prices scale that way i.e. the YoY growth of a £100K house will be the same percentage as a £300K one?

ukcarper

nic_c wrote: »

Do house prices scale that way i.e. the YoY growth of a £100K house will be the same percentage as a £300K one?

Land registry give figures for property type.