Debate House Prices


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Asking prices up 3% in a month according to June rightmove report ...

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Comments

  • padington
    padington Posts: 3,121 Forumite
    That's may report - post election stats.

    That in itself show the pressure built up between supply and demand. Even Milliband hardly could keep the housing market underwater.
    Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    michaels wrote: »
    I wonder if asking price increases are more closely correlated with increased selling prices or the difference between original asking price and selling price?

    Someone measures the fluctuation in the difference between asking and selling prices, I just can't remember whom.

    IIRC, the norm is that it widens as prices fall and people 'chase the market down' and tends to shrink as prices rise.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 15 June 2015 at 1:39PM
    Generali wrote: »
    What could possibly go wrong?

    Nothing - were all getting rich beyond our wildest dreams.

    If I've learnt anything from this forum it's that rising prices are:

    - Good for growth
    - Good for the treasury
    - Good for FTBs
    - Good for Movers
    - Good for Sellers
    - Good for current mortgagees
    - Good for potential mortgagees
    - Good for ex mortgagees
    - Good for local business
    - Good for the grandkids
    - Good for investors
    - Good for kittens

    They even make the sun shine.
  • caronoel
    caronoel Posts: 908 Forumite
    I've been Money Tipped!
    Nothing - were all getting rich beyond our wildest dreams.

    If I've learnt anything from this forum it's that rising prices are:

    - Good for growth
    - Good for the treasury
    - Good for FTBs
    - Good for Movers
    - Good for Sellers
    - Good for current mortgagees
    - Good for local business
    - Good for the grandkids
    - Good for investors

    They even make the sun shine.

    Not so good for the muppets who have been consistently predicting the sky is about to fall in for an entire decade now!

    :rotfl:
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Key points....

    - Highest ever price and biggest ever rise in month of June

    - 6/10 regions set new record price as the imbalance between supply and demand spreads further North - This is no longer just a London issue.

    - Busiest ever May on Rightmove - 115 million viewings - suggests significant pent up demand.

    - Number of properties coming to market down 8.5% on last year.

    Some extracts from the commentary...
    “The aftermath of the previous general election in May 2010 saw a 17% surge in fresh stock, and a similar increase would have been a welcome—albeit temporary—relief for the under-supplied housing market, as well as for choice-starved buyers.

    Instead supply has tightened further, underlining the effects of the historic lack of new build.

    The new government and other stakeholders now need to urgently deliver more new-build homes, to stop asking prices being pushed up further as demand continues to outstrip supply of suitable homes in many areas.”
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Generali wrote: »
    Someone measures the fluctuation in the difference between asking and selling prices, I just can't remember whom..

    Hometrack I think....

    But a close proxy is to use Rightmove and Acadametrics as their indices have similar methodology.

    Rightmove = £294,351

    Acadata = £277,178

    Based on that, actual selling prices are about a 5% discount to initial asking price, on average.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    Generali wrote: »
    An annualised increase in prices of well over 40%. What could possibly go wrong?



    The most efficient thing for the market to do would be to jump to its next price all in one go....until something changes to determine a new price

    So if someone thinks prices could double in the next 5 years, then they should not find it impossible or even that undesirable for prices to double over the next 5 weeks rather than five years.
  • PixelPound
    PixelPound Posts: 3,059 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    Key points....

    - Highest ever price and biggest ever rise in month of June

    - 6/10 regions set new record price as the imbalance between supply and demand spreads further North - This is no longer just a London issue.
    No it just suggests prices are increasing now outside London, so they are following. Does not mean that supply/demand is the cause.
    - Busiest ever May on Rightmove - 115 million viewings - suggests significant pent up demand.
    or people were waiting until after the election so all those viewings that would have occurred before came after
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    nic_c wrote: »
    Does not mean that supply/demand is the cause.

    Supply/Demand is always the cause.

    There is nothing else.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • padington
    padington Posts: 3,121 Forumite
    Supply/Demand is always the cause.

    There is nothing else.

    You get structural demand and speculative demand though which are quite different. Speculative demand being more related to a possible future crash. I would argue all investor properties are bought with speculative demand and that more and more are being bought in this way, which does suggest a good old bubble could be building.

    However, I think it will yet blow up to be massively bigger than it is now and will crash down to higher than it is now. So right now, still nothing to worry about.

    Hence the crazy current speculative demand.
    Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.
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