Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Mart I think you did some calcs before on the amount of energy needed to replace ice fuels based on annual miles driven

Presumably the same could be done for replacing gas space heating

Very true. The problem with the calcs I did years ago*, is that leccy demand has fallen quite a lot since, so the (same) increase will now be a higher %age, that in itself leans into the higher increase being suggested?

But, what surprised me about that 64% increase, isn't so much the amount, as the year. Even if BEV's and HP's reach ~100% of new sales/installs by 2035, I'd have thought the bulk of their impact will be after 2035, as the fleets transition.

Not sure where to start with heating, as efficiency/insulation improvements will change things. Plus I think about 6-7% of properties use leccy already (not HP's), so if they change, that could mean current leccy heating is equal to about 20% of future demand .... not really sure about that line of thought. But heating will have a massive winter weighting, obviously, so that will have a greater impact on power demand increase, v's energy demand increase.

The more I think about this, the more I realise I'm very much out of my depth.

*Roughly I thought about +17% gross for cars, perhaps +10% net due to energy savings from reduced refining and fuel consumption, for fuel transportation. For all road vehicles perhaps 25% gross. But with demand dropping since my guess, it could now be +25% net? Perhaps by 2050, if sales reach 100% BEV in 2035, and take 15yrs to displace the bulk of the ICE fleet.

Coastalwatch

Not surprising perhaps considering the mild winter but encouraging to read all the same.

UK emissions fall as gas generation plummets, wind hits record

As per government figures, Britain emitted 384.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) over the year, with the energy sector recording the largest drop.

Some 41.1 MtCO2e was released by the sector, which accounts for 11% of UK emissions, against 51.9 MtCO2e in 2022.

This was as gas power generation fell by 21.1%, while wind made up a record 28.7% of the UK’s energy needs for the year.

Overall, renewables outperformed fossil fuels for a third year, generating a record 47.3% of Britain’s electricity, compared to 41.5% in 2022.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1044245/uk-emissions-fall-as-gas-generation-plummets-wind-hits-record-1044245.html

Martyn1981

This week's Carbon Commentary Newsletter from Chris Goodall.

1, Battery recycling. No European car company yet recycles vehicle batteries. Renault said it is now in ‘advanced’ discussions with partners aiming to develop a new factory to extract the metals from batteries that are being scrapped. Industry sources suggest lithium, cobalt and nickel represent almost 30% of the total cost of a passenger car. Renault first announced that it would enter the recycling business three years ago, saying it was intending to develop an experimental factory with large waste processing companies. That venture appears to have stalled but Renault’s interest in full recycling seems to have been restarted by concerns over China’s dominance of the supply chain for new batteries. Renault is also in the process of converting an existing car factory in France into a location for repairing existing batteries and restoring old cars for resale.

2, CCUS at cement plant. One of the largest projects funded by the US Industrial Demonstrations Program is a plan to capture the CO2 at a Heidelberg Materials cement works in Indiana. The target is the capture and storage of about 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year. Heidelberg Materials is unusual among global cement manufacturers in pursuing CCUS as its main decarbonisation route. Other major participants are largely looking at avoiding CO2 emissions by using non-carbonate raw materials. (Much more on this complicated topic in Possible). Heidelberg Materials has set an ambition of 10 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2030 and has about ten individual sites on which it is working. These include the cement works at the port of Brevik in Norway which will be ready to send its first carbon dioxide to the Northern Lights storage site in the North Sea by the end of 2024. (Thanks to Greg Yakolev).

3, Zeolites for Direct Air Capture. Zeolites, compounds of mostly aluminium, silicon and oxygen, can absorb gases in tiny molecular sieves. These gases can then be released with gentle heating. ZeoDAC, a new US company, raised venture capital to build a business that will use a proprietary zeolite with sieves that preferentially capture CO2. The carbon dioxide can be driven off and stored. One of the new investors is a large Coca-Cola franchise, a business that could use the CO2 in its products. This is a relatively low technology approach to DAC, using cheap materials. Some analysts think it will very much cheaper than the conventional routes pioneered by Climeworks and others.

4, Biochar. Of the 125,000 tonnes of paid-for carbon sequestration in 2023, biochar seems to have been responsible for over 90%. Biochar is very largely composed of carbon which would have eventually entered the atmosphere as CO2. One source suggests that the cost of a tonne of CO2 avoided using this route fell to as little as $131 in 2023. Microsoft added to the purchases of biochar by signing a six year 95,000 tonne carbon removal deal with a company operating in Mexico. The biochar will be made from agricultural wastes and then returned to farms where it is applied to soils to help improve yields and reduce fertiliser use.

5, Charging infrastructure for trucks in the US. A sharp intake of breath greeted an estimate that the cost of infrastructure to allow full electrification of US road freight would be about $1 trillion by 2040 (about 4% of US annual GDP). This would include charging points and electricity network improvement. Others rushed in to question the estimates produced by the Clean Freight Coalition. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) suggested the report exaggerated the cost of chargers by about ten-fold, quoting estimates from Daimler Truck. The ICCT also suggested a much lower cost for upgraded electricity infrastructure. Whoever is right, if the US is to reach its target of 100% electric truck sales by 2040 it will need very substantial investment in charging, new charging parks and greater electricity supplies.

6. Non-Chinese solar PV manufacturing. Details are missing on some of the main projects to set up PV manufacturing sites outside China but nevertheless the momentum seems to be increasing. Nordcell, a new Swedish company, announced a plan to build a factory with 1.2 GW capacity in the north of the country. (The world had production capacity of about 450 GW at the end of 2022). This factory will use about 1% of the country’s electricity supply and the very low cost power available in northern Sweden is a critical component of any plan to manufacture PV modules. In India, a market analyst wrote that the country had installed about 21 GW of new production facilities for making solar modules in 2023, adding about 50% to the already available capacity. India’s capabilities to manufacture the cells that form the main components for solar modules remains much more limited. As in Sweden, solar PV manufacturing tends to be located where electricity prices are cheap. Australia pledged a US $650 million fund to push local PV manufacture. At the announcement, electricity producer AGL and an innovative Australian solar cell company said that they would explore plans to develop a manufacturing plant at the site of former coal-fired power station in New South Wales.

7, Hydrogen boiler. Very few analysts give hydrogen much of a role in low temperature heating for homes and commercial buildings. Nevertheless, what I think may be the first commercial hydrogen boiler has just been installed to provide heat to a 1400 square metre industrial building in the port of Antwerp. Antwerp is vying with Rotterdam and Hamburg to be the centre of hydrogen shipment in Europe. The hydrogen comes from a 30 kw electrolyser using the output from solar panels on the roof of the building and from grid electricity supplies. Waste heat from the electrolyser is also used to heat the building. No sceptic is going to be convinced by this demonstration site but the project is carefully structured to show hydrogen heating in its best possible light.

8, Buildings made from mass timber. Large buildings made from wood products such as cross laminated timber are being built more frequently and are becoming more complex and interesting in their designs. These structures sequester carbon rather than needing large quantities of high emissions concrete. The first university building in Europe to be constructed in solid wood was recently completed at Tilburg University in the Netherlands. Clad in stone, this a remarkably lovely piece of architecture. An even more striking proposal is to build a 155,000 square metre warehouse for a fashion company entirely in wood on the Dutch island of Flevopolder. A beautiful addition to the landscape.

9, Green steel. The battle as to how to decarbonise steelmaking is far from over. Electra makes iron using electricity and some proprietary chemistry. Crucially, it only needs to heat the iron ore raw material to about 60 degrees, unlike Boston Metal which also uses electricity but heats the ore to well over 1,000 degrees. Also of importance, Electra’s process can turn ore containing 55% iron into raw metal whereas hydrogen direct reduction requires much higher percentage iron content. A third advantage is that the process can be powered by intermittent electricity, meaning that users should be able to operate the plant only at times of surplus low-cost power. Finally, Electra’s technology can be operated at any scale. The iron plants can be small or large. Last week the company announced the opening of its pilot plant in Colorado and reiterated its target of ‘millions of tonnes of clean iron by the end of the decade’. (Total global primary steel production is about 1,300 million tonnes a year.) Countries with large reserves of low quality iron ore, such as Australia, will be studying this company’s progress carefully.

Martyn1981

Article detailing the rapid expansion of storage in Europe, and suggesting ~120GW's of power available by 2030. Also interesting to see that most of the capacity last year (about 3/4) was behind the meter.

Hopefully more international interconnectors, will also mean less total storage capacity needed across Europe.

Europe installed 10GW of energy storage in 2023, EU policies to drive major growth this decade

It found that total installations in Europe – including European Union (EU) and non-EU countries – across the residential, utility-scale, and commercial and industrial (C&I) market segments throughout last year added up to around 10.1GW.

That was more than double the 4.5GW recorded across Europe for 2022, and way above the 6GW forecast for 2023 by LCP Delta in last year’s EMMES 7.0 report published around this time last year.

The “impressive results” were driven by a combination of support schemes and improving market conditions for storage, LCP Delta said.

One key takeaway, which we wrote about in the most recent ESN Premium Friday Briefing, was the split between front-of-the-meter (FTM, utility-scale) and behind-the-meter (BTM, residential and C&I). There were around 2.7GW of FTM installations completed in 2023, versus around 7.3GW of BTM systems installed.

Martyn1981

Study on wind energy variation across a year - shows individual sites can vary about 25%pa, with Europe at about 7% overall and the World having just a 3% variation.

Wind power production ‘very predictable’

A new study shows worldwide wind power production is very predictable, with annual variations remaining within a ±3% range.

The report comes from wind and solar resource assessment consultancy Eoltech, which aimed at assessing the variations of the global wind resource over the last 15 years.

The results are based on irec index, the wind energy index covering 80% of the world’s onshore wind farms installed as of 2023.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Study on wind energy variation across a year - shows individual sites can vary about 25%pa, with Europe at about 7% overall and the World having just a 3% variation.

Wind power production ‘very predictable’

A new study shows worldwide wind power production is very predictable, with annual variations remaining within a ±3% range.

The report comes from wind and solar resource assessment consultancy Eoltech, which aimed at assessing the variations of the global wind resource over the last 15 years.

The results are based on irec index, the wind energy index covering 80% of the world’s onshore wind farms installed as of 2023.

So wind would work well with inter-seasonal storage - not sure how useful that is until the storage solution is available....

Netexporter

An interesting article on large heat-pumps to produce heat for industrial processes and district heating schemes:

Large electrical heat pumps can be key to decarbonising Europe’s industry – Euractiv

Martyn1981

This week's Carbon Commentary newsletter from Chris Goodall,

1, Consumer electronics and cars. Automobiles are becoming more like computers every day. But that doesn’t mean that all consumer electronics companies will add cars to their product ranges. Apple announced its final withdrawal from plans to enter vehicle manufacture. But its mobile phone competitor Xiaomi told us that it was starting full scale production of its own car. Apple has been working for the best part of ten years on an electric car and failed to launch even a prototype while Xiaomi’s formal announcement of its $30,000 electric vehicle resulted in 50,000 orders in the first 27 minutes after the launch, selling out production capacity for this year.

2, Steel industry transition. Sweden’s SSAB took another step in its planned transition to low carbon steel manufacturing, confirming it would close its blast furnace, replacing it with two electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and in so doing reducing the country’s overall emissions by 7%. The EAFs will use scrap steel, complemented by low carbon iron from SSAB’s trial hydrogen direct reduction plant and from its planned commercial scale replacement. SSAB is also in line to get $500m support from the US government to build the first hydrogen direct reduction iron plant outside the EU and China in Mississippi.

3, Railway locomotives. Trenitalia showed off a new version of a low emissions train in southern Italy. Made by Hitachi, the new train is powered by electricity, batteries or diesel and operates in hybrid mode similar to a car, regenerating electricity during braking. Hitachi claims an 83% reduction in emissions compared to a conventional diesel unit of similar size. In the UK, Freightliner, an operator of railway freight transport services, said it had entered a partnership with Zero Petroleum, an innovative start-up that will manufacture synthetic liquid fuels for aircraft, cars and other transport vehicles. The intention is that Zero Petroleum will provide the low carbon fuel for the existing fleet of diesel freight locomotives. No new transport infrastructure required, a major benefit.

4, Shipping fuels. New academic research questioned the viability of ammonia as a shipping fuel. Although it may be less costly than other alternatives, the researchers write that NH3 is an unattractive route partly because of the likely emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent GHG. The lead author says that ammonia is ‘probably not green enough’, also mentioning its potential impact on ocean acidification and eutrophication. Other new fuels, including synthetic methanol, don’t escape criticism either. Nevertheless, last week saw a big step forward in the use of this alternative liquid. Maersk carried out the first methanol bunkering of a full sized container vessel in Europe. About 4,300 tonnes of methanol were taken on board in Antwerp as well as about 1,400 tonnes of back-up diesel. XPress feeders, which operates smaller vessels that collect containers and takes them to the main ports separately said it had established methanol supply facilities in several Baltic ports as well as Antwerp.

5, Biochar for industry. An Australian startup has established a factory for making biochar in Malaysia for supply as a fuel source (or reductant) for metallurgical industries such as steel and magnesium manufacture. The source organic material is bamboo. 10 tonnes of this wood produces 3 tonnes of biochar and 2 tonnes of other valuable products such as oils. Biochar, or pyrochar, as it is called by the Australian state agency that helped develop the product, resembes coal in that it is almost pure carbon. It can therefore replace coal in steel furnaces, for example and the startup is intending to supply trial quantities to industries around the world. The carbon benefit is that the bamboo source material has extracted the carbon from the air, making the fuel a low emissions product. However we will all have a nagging concern that success in this venture will mean old forests being cut down to grow bamboo.

6, Battery swapping for EVs. The Chinese car manufacturer Nio is the most active proponent of battery swapping and operates about two thirds of the 3,500+ swapping stations in China. Could this solution be more widely adopted elsewhere, particularly in rural areas with low density of charging stations? Would it reduce the nervousness of potential purchasers of electric vehicles around the world who worry about getting access to charging stations. This article reports official Chinese research that states that during national holidays the typical EV owner has to queue for ‘well over an hour’ to get access to a charger whereas battery swapping is ‘complete in just five minutes’ according to the journalist writing on the topic.

7, Germany hydrogen storage. Hydrogen storage, and hydrogen transmission networks, will probably develop alongside natural gas distribution systems, and pipelines will gradually be converted. A good example of this is the newly announced plan to store hydrogen in new caverns in the Berlin area close to existing natural gas facilities and then connect into the proposed hydrogen transmission network from the Baltic Coast into eastern Germany. Without substantial storage capacity and widespread distribution systems, as well as clear subsidies and regulation, hydrogen will struggle to develop.

8, Light commercial vehicles. Renault, Volvo and the venture capital arm of giant shipper CMA CGM gave more details of their partnership to build electric light commercial vehicles for urban delivery routes. The head of Flexis, the name for the new business, provided some information about the proposed product. The CEO started with an interesting comment: 50% of logistics costs arise in the final part of the delivery but Flexis thinks it can reduce this by 30% with its new vehicles. The design will be ‘Lego-like’, he said, enabling many different types of vans to be constructed on a single skateboard. Typically, vehicles will be shorter and taller than today’s vans, with a much tighter turning circle. As with all new road transport products, the vehicles will be ‘software-defined’, a way of emphasising the highly connected features of the vans, which will be in constant communication with headquarters via the Cloud. The head of Volvo also stressed the emphasis to be given to ensuring that all aspects of the vehicles will be carbon neutral, including manufacture, repair and disposal. This new venture is an illustration of how electrification and ‘software-defined’ vehicles may completely change the structure of a well-established industry. Startled by the innovations of competitors such as Rivian, as well as the threat from China, older vehicle manufactures have begun the rapid evolution that will be required.

9, Green fertiliser. IFFCO in India, the world’s largest fertiliser cooperative, said it would be buying 200,000 tonnes of green ammonia, using about 35,000 tonnes of hydrogen. The ammonia will be made by a specialist Indian producer using hydrogen from electrolysis generated by renewable electricity. Green ammonia made for fertiliser production is likely to be the early driver of green hydrogen development in India, aided by the availability of international carbon credits for emissions reduction. A recent report suggested that continued support from the central government might push Indian green ammonia production to about 9 million tonnes a year by 2030 on the way to complete decarbonisation and 55 million tonnes of production by mid-century. Fertiliser manufacture is going to be one of the most important uses for green hydrogen.

10, The solar eclipse. The eclipse on Monday 8th April across the US, running from Texas to Vermont, will provide interesting information on the resilience of electricity grids. 20 gigawatts of grid solar capacity will lose at least 80% of their likely generation at some point in the middle of the day when PV is normally at its peak. But almost 85 gigawatts of solar farms, or about 90% of all US utility-scale solar, will see measurable losses in electricity production. Small rooftop systems will also be affected by the eclipse but the overall effect is uncertain because it’s not known exactly how much capacity they represent. Average US power usage is about 500 gigawatts on an April day so the impact on grid operations will be substantial, particularly in Texas. Total battery capacity is only about 15 gigawatts meaning that other sources of electricity will have to be switched on.

Martyn1981

Article looking at the FoE report on England's PV and on-shore wind potential. It's truly staggering to see how much generation potential there is, especially if you swop out the Guardian's G's with T's, as they've used GWh's instead of TWh's.  Doh!

Here's the FOE map if you want have a look.

England could produce 13 times more renewable energy, using less than 3% of land – analysis

England could produce 13 times more renewable energy than it does now, while using less than 3% of its land, analysis has found.

Onshore wind and solar projects could provide enough electricity to power all the households in England two and a half times over, the research by Exeter University, commissioned by Friends of the Earth (FoE), suggested.

Currently, about 17 gigawatt hours of electricity comes from homegrown renewables on land. But there is potential for 130 GWh to come from solar panels, and 96GWh from onshore wind.

These figures are reached by only taking into account the most suitable sites, excluding national parks, areas of outstanding natural beauty, higher grade agricultural land and heritage sites.

Martyn1981

CAES (compressed air energy storage) is one of the storage options that could provide vast amounts of longer duration storage, perhaps many days.

This is actually a smaller scheme, more on par with a very large battery, but presumably it will help to demonstrate the viability of the technology, and the economics. The article states that this scheme expects a round trip efficiency of 64% (upto 70%).

Purely for my own thoughts, so don't draw too much from this, but checking on Tesla Megapack prices, for a 300MW/1,198MWh battery, including the installation, prices start from $385m. Or a 375MW/1,500MWh for $481m, but the Megapacks have a higher round trip efficiency of ~94%. [V's the $270m for this scheme.]

‘World’s largest’ compressed air energy storage project connects to the grid in China

A compressed air energy storage (CAES) project in Hubei, China, has come online, with 300MW/1,500MWh of capacity.

The 5-hour duration project, called Hubei Yingchang, was built in two years with a total investment of CNY1.95 billion (US$270 million) and uses abandoned salt mines in the Yingcheng area of Hubei, China’s sixth-most populous province.

It is the largest grid-connected CAES project of its size in the world, engineering firm China Energy Engineering Corporation claimed in its announcement of the project (or specifically, the first in the world of that scale).