Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

Couple of car stories caught my eye, first the boring one

Sales Of Petrol/Gas-Powered Cars Have Overtaken Diesels In Europe

nothing too shocking there as we move away from diesels, especially concerns about being able to use them in cities in the future.


But enough of the teasers, here's some genuinely shocking news:

51% Of British Motorists Expect To Be Motoring In An Electric Vehicle Within 5 Years

That's an incredible figure for such a short timeline.

Putting aside the problem that I can't imagine supply will be anywhere near that level, it's still amazing news that so many people are willing/interested in EV's already. [I think they mean BEV's but electric vehicle could mean hybrids too, I'm not sure.]

Northern Ireland is 77%, blimey!

PS Imagine how high the numbers would be if they had frickin lazers?

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

That's an incredible figure for such a short timeline.

Easily done if manufacturers get a grip and produce EVs that people are willing to buy.

I've got a 30kWh Nissan Leaf and have driven 200+ mile journies in it using Ecotricity's Electric Highway chargers. When the lease is up June 2019 I shall probably buy the 60kWh version they're bringing out next year. That will mean I only have to stop once on our regular 280 mile trip. And, not at all on the 115 and 135 mile ones. That last is the furthest I can manage before bladder anxiety really sets in.

BEV life will be a doddle when there are charging stations in every place where there are now fossil fuel ones.

EricMears

NigeWick wrote: »

Easily done if manufacturers get a grip and produce EVs that people are willing to buy.

I've got a 30kWh Nissan Leaf and have driven 200+ mile journies in it using Ecotricity's Electric Highway chargers. When the lease is up June 2019 I shall probably buy the 60kWh version they're bringing out next year. That will mean I only have to stop once on our regular 280 mile trip. And, not at all on the 115 and 135 mile ones. That last is the furthest I can manage before bladder anxiety really sets in.

BEV life will be a doddle when there are charging stations in every place where there are now fossil fuel ones.

It would help me considerably if charging stations were more reasonably priced.

For instance, I drove my e-Up! home from Southampton needing 4 motorway charging stops which at the time were free. Now that Ecotricity are charging £6 per session, that would cost me £24 which is actually more than I'd spend on diesel for my other car. Hence, I shall continue to leave the BEV at home when undertaking longer trips.

Switching to them as a home provider isn't much of an answer either - they're nowhere near competitive even if I factor in the 'free' BEV charging.

zeupater

NigeWick wrote: »

Easily done if manufacturers get a grip and produce EVs that people are willing to buy.

Hi

No, it's impossible, bordering on land of the fairy's pipe-dream ... even leaving energy/fuel-source aside there just isn't the manufacturing capacity to have 51% of motorists driving EVs in 5 years ...

In the UK alone there are ~37million vehicles on the road with around 2.7million new registrations per year ... if every car sold was an EV from tomorrow (which is impossible) and for every new EV registration an ICE vehicle was scrapped, then at the end of 5 years only a third of vehicles would be EV .. But we can increase capacity ? ... no, the automotive industry couldn't do that because investment in production facilities would be wasted through creating a boom & bust production/sales cycle for probably most of the next century ...

Realistically, if the number of EVs registered in the UK doubled each year for the next 5 years you'd be looking at around 1 million vehicles added ... so well over 90% of those 'expecting to be motoring in an EV in 5 years' will in all likelihood be very disappointed ...

Just taking the rose tinted specs off & being realistic ..
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Just taking the rose tinted specs off & being realistic ..
Z

I agree with your figures on realistic rollout numbers, but I think Nigel is right about the number of drivers that will see themselves owning an EV in 5yrs, if the industry produces the cars people want to buy - but sadly, most of those potential owners will be disappointed as supply (new or secondhand) just won't be ready in time.

Still, better to have too much demand than too little. But I've got a horrible feeling that by the time I can afford a BEV, we'll be shifting to on-demand cars, and I'll miss out completely. Bah!

Mind you, if demand does start to shift that hard, and that fast, think how little new ICEV's today will be worth in 5-10yrs, you might have to pay to get rid of em. :eek:

Cardew

I suspect, as mused earlier, many of that 51% were thinking of a hybrid car(e.g. a Toyota Prius).

From many sources on the internet, even the upgraded 30kW Nissan Leaf has considerably lower range than the brochure indicates - especially in winter. see this from a EV enthusiast's forum https://speakev.com/threads/real-life-range-leaf-30-in-winter.24081/

We drive regularly 500+ miles in a day to one of the remotest parts of the Scottish Highlands. It takes around 9 hours of actual driving - not including stops. I think it will be a long time before an EV will be suitable for such a journey.

zeupater

Cardew wrote: »

I suspect, as mused earlier, many of that 51% were thinking of a hybrid car(e.g. a Toyota Prius).

Hi

As previously mentioned, it doesn't matter what technology the power-train uses, there's simply a vehicle manufacturing capacity issue ... then again, if we were to consider global battery manufacturing capacity, timescales would need to slip more than a little ... even Tesla are barely building enough batteries for a couple of thousand vehicles/month at the moment ...

Z

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

... Still, better to have too much demand than too little. But I've got a horrible feeling that by the time I can afford a BEV, we'll be shifting to on-demand cars, and I'll miss out completely. Bah!

Hi

Demand management is key ... the auto industry will need to control production in order to smooth long term replacement demand, however, if demand is higher than supply then new prices will remain high (usual £supply/demand) and so will pre-owned prices ....

No doubt the pitfalls will become more apparent over the coming few decades ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

Cardew wrote: »

We drive regularly 500+ miles in a day to one of the remotest parts of the Scottish Highlands. It takes around 9 hours of actual driving - not including stops. I think it will be a long time before an EV will be suitable for such a journey.

I've got good news for you, there's been an EV capable of this for several years already.

The Tesla S 100 can do 514 miles at 45mph, or 319 miles at 70mph, and somewhere in-between at somewhere in-between. An 80% charge will only take 40 mins at supercharger sites. And the cars cost much less than a Ferrari.

I think EV's are a bit like PV, batts and heat pumps, many folk just don't realise how good they are.

Of course, a rental car for some journeys is another option, allowing for the use of an EV with a smaller range, and after deducting wear and tear, 1,000 miles nearer to next service and mileage depreciation, could even be cheaper than using your own.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

As previously mentioned, it doesn't matter what technology the power-train uses, there's simply a vehicle manufacturing capacity issue ... then again, if we were to consider global battery manufacturing capacity, timescales would need to slip more than a little ... even Tesla are barely building enough batteries for a couple of thousand vehicles/month at the moment ...

Z

Psst, don't mention the batteries, total PITA. I suspect (hopeless optimism) that things are now shifting. There are a lot of plans for large batt factories, plus of course some real ones being built, and the Nevada Gigafactory extensions will take it to 150GWh pa, up from the original 35GWh.

Next year I think Tesla plan to ship 500,000 cars, plus those pesky Powerwalls and Powerpacks* too.

Of course, even 150GWh/500,000 cars is still small change, so all eyes are on TGF 2, 3 & 4 (with rumours of #5 already), and other non-Tesla factory announcements taking the total to 10+.

* For full disclosure, the Australian news attracting "100 days or they're free" Powerpack farm will actually use Samsung batts, as Panasonic/Tesla need all of theirs currently for the S, 3 & X models. Roll on the Y to complete Elon's 10yr promise to make SEXY EV's.