Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

gefnew

Tidal barrier for the wash is being touted.
The Wash: £2bn tidal barrage plan including road and port unveiled - BBC News

gefnew

Some news about moving some of Scotland`s excess energy down south.
New subsea cables 'could help ease energy crisis' - BBC News

1961Nick

gefnew said:

Some news about moving some of Scotland`s excess energy down south.
New subsea cables 'could help ease energy crisis' - BBC News

Already long overdue considering we already suffer from a North/South traffic jam. The problem will be exacerbated by the recent auction of 25GW of offshore wind if something isn't done soon.

Martyn1981

gefnew said:

Tidal barrier for the wash is being touted.
The Wash: £2bn tidal barrage plan including road and port unveiled - BBC News

Fascinating.

Am I being stupid, or stating the obvious, but would this work at the opposite times to (say) Swansea or Cardiff tidal lagoons? Or perhaps, operating at the same time, just one side filling whilst the other(s) are emptying?

I'm just thinking that as tidal lagoons/barrages should operate for 14hrs out of 24 (4 periods of 3.5hr generating, and 2.5hr slack tide), then you wouldn't need too little overlap to be near 24hr generation as a package.

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

gefnew said:

Some news about moving some of Scotland`s excess energy down south.
New subsea cables 'could help ease energy crisis' - BBC News

Already long overdue considering we already suffer from a North/South traffic jam. The problem will be exacerbated by the recent auction of 25GW of offshore wind if something isn't done soon.

You're right, but some positive news is that the UK is also ramping up interconnectors to mainland Europe, they will triple by mid decade to about 15GW, possibly even forfold (~20GW) by 2030. I think the UK expects/thinks it will be a net exporter of leccy by 2030, due to the massive rollout of offshore wind.

I know 'net' regarding CO2 emissions, isn't quite the same, but our RE exports will hopefully net off the gas we will need to keep burning to balance RE - smaller annual amounts of energy, but possibly an increase in the short term power being generated. It will also be important what the sources of import are, but let's worry about that next decade.

For anyone interested, the DNV have the following projections for gas capacity in their 2022 UK outlook report:

2021 - 36GW
2030 - 43GW
2040 - 30GW
2050 - 19GW

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

1961Nick said:

gefnew said:

Some news about moving some of Scotland`s excess energy down south.
New subsea cables 'could help ease energy crisis' - BBC News

Already long overdue considering we already suffer from a North/South traffic jam. The problem will be exacerbated by the recent auction of 25GW of offshore wind if something isn't done soon.

You're right, but some positive news is that the UK is also ramping up interconnectors to mainland Europe, they will triple by mid decade to about 15GW, possibly even forfold (~20GW) by 2030. I think the UK expects/thinks it will be a net exporter of leccy by 2030, due to the massive rollout of offshore wind.

I know 'net' regarding CO2 emissions, isn't quite the same, but our RE exports will hopefully net off the gas we will need to keep burning to balance RE - smaller annual amounts of energy, but possibly an increase in the short term power being generated. It will also be important what the sources of import are, but let's worry about that next decade.

For anyone interested, the DNV have the following projections for gas capacity in their 2022 UK outlook report:

2021 - 36GW
2030 - 43GW
2040 - 30GW
2050 - 19GW

I would be really fascinated re the capacity factors they were anticipating

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

1961Nick said:

gefnew said:

Some news about moving some of Scotland`s excess energy down south.
New subsea cables 'could help ease energy crisis' - BBC News

Already long overdue considering we already suffer from a North/South traffic jam. The problem will be exacerbated by the recent auction of 25GW of offshore wind if something isn't done soon.

You're right, but some positive news is that the UK is also ramping up interconnectors to mainland Europe, they will triple by mid decade to about 15GW, possibly even forfold (~20GW) by 2030. I think the UK expects/thinks it will be a net exporter of leccy by 2030, due to the massive rollout of offshore wind.

I know 'net' regarding CO2 emissions, isn't quite the same, but our RE exports will hopefully net off the gas we will need to keep burning to balance RE - smaller annual amounts of energy, but possibly an increase in the short term power being generated. It will also be important what the sources of import are, but let's worry about that next decade.

For anyone interested, the DNV have the following projections for gas capacity in their 2022 UK outlook report:

2021 - 36GW
2030 - 43GW
2040 - 30GW
2050 - 19GW

I would be really fascinated re the capacity factors they were anticipating

Here you go sir - 

Gas-fired power plant capacity will increase until the late 2030s, but then gradually reduce as older plants coming off-line are no longer replaced. We also see their capacity factor reducing from around 40% today to below 20% in 2050, reflecting their increasing role to provide dispatchable back-up power during low production periods of wind and solar.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

1961Nick said:

gefnew said:

Some news about moving some of Scotland`s excess energy down south.
New subsea cables 'could help ease energy crisis' - BBC News

Already long overdue considering we already suffer from a North/South traffic jam. The problem will be exacerbated by the recent auction of 25GW of offshore wind if something isn't done soon.

You're right, but some positive news is that the UK is also ramping up interconnectors to mainland Europe, they will triple by mid decade to about 15GW, possibly even forfold (~20GW) by 2030. I think the UK expects/thinks it will be a net exporter of leccy by 2030, due to the massive rollout of offshore wind.

I know 'net' regarding CO2 emissions, isn't quite the same, but our RE exports will hopefully net off the gas we will need to keep burning to balance RE - smaller annual amounts of energy, but possibly an increase in the short term power being generated. It will also be important what the sources of import are, but let's worry about that next decade.

For anyone interested, the DNV have the following projections for gas capacity in their 2022 UK outlook report:

2021 - 36GW
2030 - 43GW
2040 - 30GW
2050 - 19GW

I would be really fascinated re the capacity factors they were anticipating

Here you go sir - 

Gas-fired power plant capacity will increase until the late 2030s, but then gradually reduce as older plants coming off-line are no longer replaced. We also see their capacity factor reducing from around 40% today to below 20% in 2050, reflecting their increasing role to provide dispatchable back-up power during low production periods of wind and solar.

36 x 0.4 = 126 TWh
19 x 0.2 = 33 TWh

75% reduction but still a long way from zero fossil fuels. 

I wonder what they anticipate will cover the 24GW (43 down to 19, probably higher with more switching of the economy to electricity) in 2050 when the wind doesn't blow?

Martyn1981

Bear in mind, that as we move to electrifying everything, leccy supply/demand is expected to increase by ~150%, so up from say 300-350TWh today, to around 750-900TWh in 2050. So 33TWh from gas isn't bad, perhaps a score of 'could do better'.

[Edit - Should have said, this won't necessarily be FF gas, it could be H2, synthetic methane etc. M.]

Rather than wondering so much, why not be boring like me and download a copy of their report. Other reports, analysis etc will offer other numbers. Marc Jacobson and the team at Stanford University will have some different numbers.

And of course humans aren't particularly good at predicting large changes, especially if exponential growth happens, as we do like to look at things from a linear perspective. If wind, PV and storage costs keep falling (outside of short term issues like material shortages, and inflation spikes), then many of the projections/predictions will need revising. The obvious one being annual PV capacity rollouts, and the IEA's hopeless, linear projections*. Now we are heading for 222GWp this year, and possibly annual TWp levels by 2030(ish).

*Has the International Energy Agency finally improved at forecasting solar growth?

zeupater

michaels said:

[...]

I wonder what they anticipate will cover the 24GW (43 down to 19, probably higher with more switching of the economy to electricity) in 2050 when the wind doesn't blow?

Hi

Probably not fusion considering what came out of the woodwork after some prodding around on the recent 'historical announcement' concerning fusion net energy ...

... turns out that the 'big brain bods' in announcing that for the first time a fusion reaction reached ignition and generated ~50% more energy than was used by the lasers to seed it may have been a little 'generous' in their self congratulatory tone & assessment .... it's since been pointed out that ignition has been achieved many times before, and ..... <wait for it> .... <drum roll to build the suspense> ... someone 'forgot' to include ALL of the energy consumed to create and, importantly, CONTAIN the ignition product (plasma), so what was claimed as being an energy efficiency of  ~150% turns out to be closer to ~1% ... this obviously moves the announcement from being an 'astonishing breakthrough' down quite a few pegs towards 'justification hype' ....

... with this level of spun disappointment, no wonder it looks like thoughts around more reliance on schedulable renewable energy schemes such as barrages, barriers & tidal flow schemes is finally back on the books ...

HTH - Z