Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

Hiya. looking at the report, which is great by the way, thanks, the numbers don't look quite as bad. I'd suggest the historical average is ~£45/MWh*, and the future prediction ~£90MWh*, so 'only' 2x. Though to be honest, I'd have thought it would be less of an increase, but so many factors in play, I don't really have a clue. For instance, I'd have assumed OCGT generation would die off, but their report seems to suggest a small growth with it displacing CCGT.

*I'm taking a straight average, though presumably the winter price should have a higher weighting, as demand/consumption is greater, but it'll affect both figures (old and new) so probably not important, as even taken to the extreme it would still be 2x (£50 v's £100).


So, trying to remember what the World was like before it went crazee, we had wholesale prices at ~4p to 5p and retail at around 15p to 18p, so an increase of wholesale prices to 9p by 2030, would maybe mean retail prices of 20p to 23p (ish)(plus inflation / index linking). I wonder if standing charges will go back down to represent costs of about £100 pa (27p/day) for the transmission and distribution networks?

2nd_time_buyer

Yes, you are right, I misread the graph and did a stealth edit to change it to 2X hoping no one would notice (Darn!),
 

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

I'd suggest the historical average is ~£45/MWh*, and the future prediction ~£90MWh*, so 'only' 2x.

And Ripple's business case was based on OPEX of £20/kWh and selling into the market at £65/kWh, a margin of £45/kWh. If we settle at £90/kWh that's a margin of £70/kWh, so 50% greater returns than forecast.

(There are probably flaws in this analysis, bit even so I'm feeling quite optimistic about my stake in Kirk Hill!)

Exiled_Tyke

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'd suggest the historical average is ~£45/MWh*, and the future prediction ~£90MWh*, so 'only' 2x.

And Ripple's business case was based on OPEX of £20/kWh and selling into the market at £65/kWh, a margin of £45/kWh. If we settle at £90/kWh that's a margin of £70/kWh, so 50% greater returns than forecast.

(There are probably flaws in this analysis, bit even so I'm feeling quite optimistic about my stake in Kirk Hill!)

I'll take your flaws and any other excuse to be optimistic right now! 

At the other extreme (and of course they really have to be conservative in their estimates) I always thought that the Ripple numbers being based on a return to the 'historical average' was (and still is) unlikely. 

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Hiya. looking at the report, which is great by the way, thanks, the numbers don't look quite as bad. I'd suggest the historical average is ~£45/MWh*, and the future prediction ~£90MWh*, so 'only' 2x. Though to be honest, I'd have thought it would be less of an increase, but so many factors in play, I don't really have a clue. For instance, I'd have assumed OCGT generation would die off, but their report seems to suggest a small growth with it displacing CCGT.

*I'm taking a straight average, though presumably the winter price should have a higher weighting, as demand/consumption is greater, but it'll affect both figures (old and new) so probably not important, as even taken to the extreme it would still be 2x (£50 v's £100).


So, trying to remember what the World was like before it went crazee, we had wholesale prices at ~4p to 5p and retail at around 15p to 18p, so an increase of wholesale prices to 9p by 2030, would maybe mean retail prices of 20p to 23p (ish)(plus inflation / index linking). I wonder if standing charges will go back down to represent costs of about £100 pa (27p/day) for the transmission and distribution networks?

Retail used to be about 2.5p for gas and 10p for electric

Martyn1981

Couple of Aussie news items.

The first is one that's been mentioned before, where a town is closer to RE operation thanks to a micro-grid, with batts and PV, plus demand side PV. It has gas/diesel back up, but much reduced. The news now, is that the idea/format is being looked at for rollout in more locations.

Western Australia utility replicating success of 100% renewable energy town

The small town of Onslow, Western Australia, is now powered almost entirely by renewable energy, and the utility behind that project wants to roll out the same tech across the state.

State-owned utility company Horizon Power said today that it will deploy distributed energy management system (DERMS) technology that helps coordinate the use of different resources like rooftop solar PV, battery storage and electric vehicles (EVs).

In the demonstration project at Onslow, the entire town ran on renewable energy and battery storage for a period of about an hour-and-a-half last year, thanks to a microgrid system which allowed it to operate as a self-contained electricity grid.

While that means Onslow still relies on natural gas engines and diesel generators, that reliance is greatly reduced, and the energy minister for Western Australia, Bill Johnson called the demonstration a “landmark step towards building a cleaner, brighter, renewable energy future for our state”.

The second item is about the expansion of iron flow battery production. I get a bit excited about any 'alternative' battery technologies that begin to succeed and scale, as that helps to spread the load across materials and supply chains, as storage expands.

ESS Inc ramps iron flow battery production capacity to 500MWh, signs 12GWh Australia deal

Iron flow battery company ESS Inc has recognised revenues for the first time since it publicly listed, while also closing in on its targeted annual production capacity of 750MWh.

Alongside its latest quarterly financial results release yesterday, the Oregon, US-headquartered technology provider also announced a major deal for up to 12GWh of its systems to be deployed in a new partnership.
ESS Inc listed on the New York Stock Exchange in late 2021 after a SPAC merger. Having said from the outset that it would likely be a couple of years before it would be able to reach profitability, it has also not been able to recognise revenues until this quarter.

It registered revenues of US$686,000 for Q2 2022, relating to the sale and installation of three of its Energy Warehouse systems, which are behind-the-meter commercial and industrial (C&I) devices of 400kWh capacity each.

ESS Inc is the only manufacturer and holder of patents on its flow batteries, which use an iron and saltwater electrolyte in rugged systems that can deliver long-duration energy storage (4-12 hours’ duration) over many years without the degradation that lithium-ion batteries experience with use, in particular from frequent and deep cycling.

Martyn1981

2nd_time_buyer said:

2nd_time_buyer said:

Does anyone know when Hornsea 2 will be operating? It was scheduled for June 2022 but I can't see any revised dates and it is not showing up in the Crown Estate asset map:

https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/en-gb/what-we-do/asset-map/

 

In answer to my own question, it is looking like the end of this month.

https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/08/11/world-days-away-from-getting-new-biggest-offshore-wind-farm/ 

Another 1.3 GW of capacity to help through the winter!

Only a tiny update, not really worth it, but I'm excited, so thought it worth posting:


The world’s largest offshore wind farm is about to officially launch

The UK’s Hornsea Two, the world’s largest single operational offshore wind farm, is expected to be fully commissioned before the end of August.

The 1.32 GW Hornsea Two will dethrone the 1.2 GW Hornsea One as the largest operating offshore wind farms in the world. It’s 462 square kilometers (178 square miles) in size, and it will power more than 1.3 million homes.

There are other big offshore wind projects in the pipeline globally, such as Ørsted’s Greater Changhua 1 & 2a in Taiwan, which is also expected to be commissioned this year.

The 4.8 GW Dogger Bank, off the Yorkshire coast in the UK, is expected to become the world’s largest offshore wind farm in 2026.

70sbudgie

I share your excitment. I was lucky enough to pass by it last month (on a cruise ship). Fortunately my family are used to me getting excited about big electrical engineering projects!

Exiled_Tyke

70sbudgie said:

I share your excitment. I was lucky enough to pass by it last month (on a cruise ship). Fortunately my family are used to me getting excited about big electrical engineering projects!

I genuinely find them awe-inspiring. I remember the first time seeing the big 'fields' of wind turbines from a ferry in the North Sea and was indeed excited.  I really cannot understand people who say they are ugly or an eye-sore whether on land at see. They are magnificent, and are our hope for the future and do that job magnificently too. 

Martyn1981

Not just the UK with massive potential from offshore wind, the Germans are looking to generate a significant amount too.

Interestingly, the amount of generation the article suggests is only a cf (capacity factor) of 41%, whilst the current UK fleet is showing 42% over the last 12 rolling month period, and cf's are rising as newer, larger WT's roll out. Hence why I tend to use 50% when quickly working out the rough impact of a new windfarm in the news, or approved capacities in the CfD allocation rounds, eg the recent round 4 contracts for 6.99GW would be roughly equal to a constant 3.5GW.

Just a quick reminder of a very old article, but the estimate of UK potential for offshore wind in 2012, was between 1,000GW and 9,000GW's ...... but let's not brag!

Germany 'could develop up to 82GW' of offshore wind

Research from the Fraunhofer IWES research institute has found that up to 82GW of offshore wind could be realised in the German North and Baltic Seas.

This is significantly more than the 70GW of offshore wind energy planned by the German federal government by 2045.

The new study has calculated in various scenarios, concluding that the offshore wind power potential can be increased by using additional areas, for example, with new offshore wind power technologies.

These could be deployed in such a way that other users and important concerns such as nature conservation are not adversely affected.

With a total potential of 81.6GW of installed capacity, yields of up to 292.1TWh can be achieved with around 3.580 full-load hours of the wind farms in the German EEZ, according to the results of the investigations.