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Coastalwatch

It wasn't so much the 1M cars sold that impressed me but more that it is the second fastest growing economy in the world behind China only. While recent headlines may have been about large corporates moving out, the underlying drive towards a cleaner environment including new solar panels on all non residential buildings together with making all new homes ready for an all electric energy supply to include heating, ventilation, DHW and EV chargers shows they are not resting on their laurels.

EVs hit 1M sold, are now California's top export as energy transition drives economy: CEC chair

• California's economy is the second fastest growing in the world, behind only China, and much of that growth is being fueled by investment in climate solutions and the clean energy transition, California Energy Commission (CEC) Chair David Hochschild said Monday at an event hosted by The Washington Post.
• "We just hit this month a very significant milestone, reaching 1 million electric vehicles sold in California," Hochschild said. There are almost three dozen companies making EVs in the state, which are now its largest export, he said.

The CEC also sets the energy code for new building construction every three years, and in August adopted energy efficiency standards to incentivize all-electric construction. The state has also mandated solar panels on all new non-residential buildings, which Hochschild said adds about 500 MW of new capacity each year.

"In addition to that, we are requiring greater electrification. So we're making every home electric ready, which means you have to have electric panels sufficient to support an EV charger, electric induction cooktop, heating, ventilation, water heating, etc.," he said.

CEC's ability to require improvements in energy efficiency in a wide range of products and sectors means "relentless, incremental improvements" can add up to major savings, said Hochschild. The agency adopted energy efficiency standards for televisions in 2009, for instance, which cut their electricity consumption by half and saves consumers $1 billion annually on electricity costs, he said.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/evs-hit-1m-sold-are-now-californias-top-export-as-energy-transition-drive/610099/

Martyn1981

This week's Carbon Commentary Newsletter from Chris Goodall:

Things I noticed and thought were interesting
Week ending 21st November 2021
 
1, Combining solar PV with agriculture (agrivoltaics). We’ve seen growing interest in farming underneath solar panels. Spanish utility Iberdrola awarded support to four projects in Spain and France that cover crops such as tomatoes and grapes with PV but which change the amount of shading dependent on the intensity of the sun. In Switzerland, Insolight publicised its first operational installation of panels placed above strawberries and raspberries. The PV lets more sun through when light levels are low, but switches to electricity production during sunny periods. In the US National Public Radio carried a programme that featured a simpler installation in Colorado covering vegetable plots. The big advantage there? PV can reduce evaporation from the soil, meaning plants need only 50% as much water.
 
2, Stranded assets. Danish Shipping Finance (DSF), a banker for the maritime industry, summarised a report it had published: ‘The price of renewable energy and its ability, when scaled sufficiently, to decarbonise and disrupt some of the shipping industry’s largest cargo categories may bring massive changes that cause assets to be stranded across multiple industries and sectors’. In the case of steel for example, cheap hydrogen in Australia may mean that iron ore is processed there, rather than being shipped to China alongside Australian coal. Instead of three tonnes of ore and coal being transported, hydrogen-based steelmaking may mean just one tonne of finished metal crossing the ocean. ‘The point is that the decarbonisation of industrial heat may not only cause onshore assets to be stranded but could also significantly change the demand outlook for vessels currently serving coal-fired blast furnaces for steel production, coal- or gas-fired cement kilns, ethylene plants, chemical plants and aluminium production plants.’

3. Carbon capture costs. The US government set what seems a very demanding target of $100 a tonne for capture and storage of atmospheric CO2 within a decade. (Climeworks charges its small customers perhaps ten times this amount for air capture and storage in Icelandic basalt today). The possible techniques covered in this ‘Earthshot’ include storage as soil carbon, genuine reforestation and enhanced rock weathering, as well as direct air capture. The intention is to grow a portfolio of approaches to more than gigaton scale (thus capturing more than 2% of world emissions). Previously announced 2021 Earthshots include $1/kg hydrogen and a 90% reduction in the cost of long duration storage. The benefits of having single unambiguous targets such as these seem overwhelming. But are they too difficult to achieve? Perhaps, but in 2011 the US set a target of 6 cents a kWh for solar power. It seemed a hugely challenging target at the time but was actually reached in 2017. It was revised downwards to 2 cents for sunnier US regions by 2030. This now looks eminently attainable.
 
4, Hydrogen from solar. If low cost heat is available, solid oxide electrolysis offers substantial advantages over conventional electrolysers, such as PEM machines. Bloom Energy ran an experiment with Heliogen at a concentrated solar power (CSP) site in California. CSP produces electricity using very high temperature liquids that have been heated by solar energy reflected onto the top of a tower. Bloom, which is better known for its fuel cells - essentially reverse electrolysers - used some of the heat to aid the hydrogen creation process. CSP has struggled to stay competitive with photovoltaics but the availability of very high temperatures for more efficient electrolysis may help restore the industry’s fortunes.
 
5, Fusion energy. Nature carried a long article on the prospects for the many private sector companies racing to build a small fusion reactor. Over $2.4bn has been invested in these ventures. The huge international experiment in southern France (ITER) will not start generating bursts of power until 2025. Full operation is targeted for 2035. The reactor will almost certainly cost over $20 billion and possibly much more. Heat generation is expected to be about 500 MW from about 50 MW of electricity. (This heat could be used to generate about 250 MW of electricity in highly efficient turbines). The new generation of private competitors claims lower costs per unit of heat generated. The Nature article contains very few numbers so I thought I would guess at the costs and energy generation potential. Tokamak Energy, based just outside Oxford, talks of smaller plants than ITER costing a billion dollars by 2030 or so. Perhaps the heat output is 200 MW, enabling 100 MW of electricity output. Averaged over the course of a year, that amount of electricity might need a budget of just $300m if invested in solar PV. It is a mystery to me why so much money is flowing into nuclear fusion when the prospective economics seem inferior to well-established existing technologies.
 
6, Implications of COP26. Respected industry analysts Rystad Energy suggested that if all COP26 measures were implemented it might be possible to limit warming to 1.6 degrees. This represents an improvement of 0.2 degrees over their 1.8 degrees forecast prior to the Glasgow meeting. Particularly helpful will be the tightening of methane emission rules and the proposed brake on deforestation. Of course countries will have to deliver on their promises if Rystad’s optimistic figures are to be achieved. (Thanks to Kingsmill Bond). 
 
7, Synthetic fuels. UK start-up Zero Petroleum manufactured the aviation gasoline for a short flight by a military aircraft, the first ever air journey using 100% synthetic fuel. Partly in response, I blogged about the likely cost of aviation kerosene by estimating the cost of its key ingredients: green hydrogen and captured CO2. I showed that CO2 costs will need to fall to below $150 a tonne and hydrogen to less than $1.50 a kilogramme to directly compete with today’s liquid fuels, even when loaded with a $100 a tonne carbon tax. 
 
8, Green ammonia. The Canadian company Fuel Positive said that its small-scale plants will produce green ammonia at less than $600, below today’s price in many North American markets. If this new technology works, it has highly disruptive potential effects, including reducing the need for large scale ammonia factories. It may make sense, for example, to install a containerised ammonia works on a farm, alongside a new solar park to provide the electricity needed for preliminary hydrogen manufacture. The ammonia might also be used for a crop dryer and fuel for tractors. Details of the technology are sparse but the company claims that its replacement for the conventional Haber Bosch process is very much less energy intensive. Fuel Positive appears to be intending to use the innovative micro-electrolysers produced by German/Italian Enapter for the hydrogen supply.
 
9, EV sales. Interesting data from last month’s figures for European car sales. The market share of BEVs and PHEVs rose sharply to 23% in France, 23% in the UK, and 30% in Germany. The share estimates are distorted by the lack of availability of new internal combustion engine cars in European markets. Industry commentators say that the relatively high sales of EVs arises because they are now more profitable than the petrol equivalents, pushing manufacturers to prioritise using their limited chip supplies for electric vehicles.
 
10, Electric trucks. UK electric truck manufacturer Tevva announced a successful $57m fundraising. Although the amount is small relative to the huge sums being raised on US markets, Tevva has some interesting features. Its 7.5 tonne truck now features a back-up hydrogen fuel cell, enabling a doubling of the range of the pure electric version to over 300 miles/500 kilometres. Tevva also says its trucks can be made in multiple small factories, close to customers, as with the green ammonia in note 8.  

EVandPV

Whitelee green hydrogen facility receives £9.4m investment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-59365823

QrizB

I'm going to put this here for now, witthout comment other than "look at the data for 2021Q4".

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dashboards/cfd/actuals-dashboards/historical-dashboard

I might come back and add some more thoughts later

2nd_time_buyer

Is it low because we are only half way through Q4?

QrizB

QrizB said:

I'm going to put this here for now, witthout comment other than "look at the data for 2021Q4".

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dashboards/cfd/actuals-dashboards/historical-dashboard

I might come back and add some more thoughts later

What I find interesting is that, for Q4 to date, the subsidy paid out under CfDs is negative. That is, the generators are paying into the fund and nor vice-versa. This is one of the unexpected consequences of the current crazy energy market.

Imagine, for the moment, that you have two sources of power; a wind farm with a CfD set at £100/MWh and a CCGT that buys and sells at the market rate. In essence the CCGT *is* the market. Let's also assume that both produce the same amount of electricity, all the time.

Now some scenarios for you:

1. The market price of electricity is £20/MWh. The suppliers pay £20/MWH but the wind farm receives a top-up of £80/MWh from a levy on consumer bills. The effective cost of the power to the consumer is (£20+£20+£80)/2, ie. £60 per MWh.
2. The market price rises to £60/MWh. The suppliers pay £60/MWH but the wind farm receives a top-up of £40/MWh from the levy. The effective cost of the power to the consumer is (£60+£60+£40)/2, ie. £80 per MWh.
3. The market price rises to £120/MWh. The suppliers pay £120/MWH but now the wind farm refunds £20/MWh to the levy. The effective cost of the power to the consumer is (£120+£120-£20)/2, ie. £110 per MWh.

As you can see, the net effect of having the wind farm on a guaranteed rate is to increase electricity bills when the market price is low, but to reduce them if the price exceeds the fixed CfD price. and this is what we're seeing in the UK at the moment; market prices for electricity are averaging £150-£180/MWh and so the renewable generators who have CfD prices lower than this are having to pay their unexpected profits back into the scheme.

I don't know exactly how this works under the previous ROC scheme but I'd guess it's a similar effect.

If you look at Ofgem's calculations, the electricity component of the current £1277 cap includes around £32/MWh of RO and CfD levies; £93/yr for the average 2900kWh/yr customer. Some of that (potentially all) will be cancelled out by the current high prices of wholesale energy.

Martyn1981

Thanks QrizB, I personally find this fascinating, and a testimony to the sucess that is possible when a technology gets the necessary support needed to expand demand/supply/production and thereby massively reduce prices/costs.

I know I talk about this way too much, and go on about the early CfD prices v's the latest, but it's a real eye-opener, especialy over the relatively short time period involved. Such as the £150/MWh CfD's issued for off-shore wind (todays money £177) that's been generating since 2016/17(ish) v's the latest contracts issued at £40 (today's money £47) that start generating around 2024/25. That's an amazing reduction, and dare I say that even the early rates (to get the market going) are acceptable given the reasonably short 15yr subsidy period.

So moving forward we have ever more generation, typically with higher capacity factors and lower costs that will steadily reduce the cost of RE leccy. It will also act as a cap on prices as RE expands and volatile FF reduces. In fairness of course, it'll also act to prevent prices dropping too low, but that part gets really complicated with excess RE, possibly unsubsidized in the future pushing prices down, and the growing need for storage helping to increase demand (at those times). Should be fun to watch.

Fingers crossed for the 2021 CfD auction coming up soon, with results next year. Hopefully we'll see more wind and PV prices at the lower end, and the net effect (I suppose) of helping to stabilise prices towards the weighted average of the RE CfD's as they continue to fall over time, and the early expensive ones fall out of the subsidy period. On that note, it'll also be interesting to see what happens to those schemes, for wind they may have another 5-10yrs of operational life, and the PV, perhaps 15-25yrs outside of subsidies?

Martyn1981

This article starts off looking at the BEV container ship that has now gone into operation (and has been mentioned in the past on the BEV thread). But it then goes on to expand into multiple ideas and fuels for addressing larger ships and longer routes.

Electric Cargo Ships Vs. Green Ammonia: Yara’s Got ‘Em Both

The new electric container ship, dubbed Yara Birkeland, set out on her maiden voyage in the fjord of Oslo, Norway, last Friday, with the aim of ferrying fertilizer from Yara’s production facility at Porsgrunn to a port at Brevik for export overseas.
Though Yara Birkeland is relatively small in size, it could have a big impact on regional carbon emissions. Yara anticipates that it will replace 40,000 diesel truck trips annually, which adds up to about 1,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year.

Of course, the diesel emissions angle will be a moot point whenever electrification hits the global truck manufacturing industry in full force, but that will take some time.

On the other hand, electrifying the container ship industry will also take some time. Yara anticipates that it will be two years before the Yara Birkland achieves fully certified status as a zero emission, autonomous container ship.

Cargo ship builders are already beginning to plan for their future fleets to accommodate green ammonia, and researchers are plowing ahead with R&D leading to commercially viable fuel cells that run on ammonia instead of hydrogen.

While all that is going on, the shipping industry is already pivoting towards yet another decarbonization pathway.

Last August shipping giant A.P. Moller – Maersk booked an order of 8 new oceangoing cargo ships that will run on carbon neutral methanol, which apparently is now a thing.

In terms of scale, Yara’s electric boat is a speck on the ocean compared to the new vessels, each of which will be capable of carrying 16,000 standard shipping containers. Plans for another 4 methanol ships are already under way.

Martyn1981

Portugal becomes the fourth EU country to close down their coal generation and beat their target date by 9yrs.


Portugal closes its last remaining coal plant

The Pego plant in central Portugal was shut down on Friday, 10 days ahead of schedule. It was Portugal’s second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide.

Saturday was the first day that electricity was produced in Portugal without the use of coal.

Verdigris

Good news and well done Portugal.

I notice we're burning a lot at the moment.