Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

silverwhistle

I normally assume he's lieing whenever he speaks and it's a principle that has would have yielded me big profits if they had been bets.

shinytop

Martyn1981 said:

Boris is talking big again, and now that it suits him (and denial won't work anymore) he seems to like renewables, and believe in AGW/science.

It's a tad frustrating to hear him saying what so many of us have been saying for decades, but if they can deliver on this, then all the best to them, they may have arrived late to the tent, but at least they've stopped pee'ing into it from outside.

UK electricity generation to be fossil fuel free by 2035, says Boris Johnson

The prime minister has confirmed plans to eliminate fossil fuels from UK electricity generation by 2035.

Speaking during the Conservative party conference, Boris Johnson said the proposed shift would help the UK decarbonise, while softening the impact of the kind of gas price fluctuations that have prompted fears of a winter energy crisis in recent weeks.

“What I’m saying is we can do for our entire energy production by 2035 what we’re doing with internal combustion engines in vehicles by 2030,” he said, during a visit to a Network Rail site in Manchester.

Johnson said removing gas from electricity generation would help safeguard against future price surges.

“We will be reliant on our own clean power generation, which will help us also to keep costs down.”

To be fair, this hasn't been a mainstream view for decades.  Anyone in power proposing this 20-30 years ago would have been very brave/laughed at. 

You say he's arrived late; which comparable countries/economies are ahead in the race?  (I'm not saying this because I'm a Boris fan).  Whether you believe him or not, it's an ambitious target. 

shinytop

silverwhistle said:

I normally assume he's lieing whenever he speaks and it's a principle that has would have yielded me big profits if they had been bets.

probably not; you wouldn't have got very good odds! 

Martyn1981

shinytop said:

Martyn1981 said:

Boris is talking big again, and now that it suits him (and denial won't work anymore) he seems to like renewables, and believe in AGW/science.

It's a tad frustrating to hear him saying what so many of us have been saying for decades, but if they can deliver on this, then all the best to them, they may have arrived late to the tent, but at least they've stopped pee'ing into it from outside.

UK electricity generation to be fossil fuel free by 2035, says Boris Johnson

The prime minister has confirmed plans to eliminate fossil fuels from UK electricity generation by 2035.

Speaking during the Conservative party conference, Boris Johnson said the proposed shift would help the UK decarbonise, while softening the impact of the kind of gas price fluctuations that have prompted fears of a winter energy crisis in recent weeks.

“What I’m saying is we can do for our entire energy production by 2035 what we’re doing with internal combustion engines in vehicles by 2030,” he said, during a visit to a Network Rail site in Manchester.

Johnson said removing gas from electricity generation would help safeguard against future price surges.

“We will be reliant on our own clean power generation, which will help us also to keep costs down.”

To be fair, this hasn't been a mainstream view for decades.  Anyone in power proposing this 20-30 years ago would have been very brave/laughed at. 

You say he's arrived late; which comparable countries/economies are ahead in the race?  (I'm not saying this because I'm a Boris fan).  Whether you believe him or not, it's an ambitious target. 

He's now suggesting that RE is a solution, and that it will give us energy independence, and that we should be striving for it. That's exactly what many have been saying for decades, but Boris has been one of the loud voices arguing against. He's only recently decided to follow the science of AGW and the climate crisis rather than keep denying it. The Tory party used to refer to RE as 'the green carp'. In 2015 when they won a majority Gov they slashed then ended the PV FiT, they removed onshore wind and PV from the CfD mechanism, they gave Gov the right to override LA permission for onshore wind, and gave the Gov the right to override LA refusal of shale gas, they cut the low carbon building standards.

So yes many of us have been saying this for decades, I've been saying it on here for a decade.

As to whether or not it's been a mainstream view, which I didn't say, it certainly has been a popular view, with the 10yrs of quarterly Gov surveys of public opinion showing massive support for RE, in the high %60's for on-shore wind, steadily rising into the 70's, and high %70's/low %80's for PV and offshore wind.

Thank goodness the Gov didn't undermine the off-shore wind industry, or we would be in a very bad state.

From what I can see, Boris has finally realised that he and the Tory Gov can't stand in the way of progress and reality any longer. Whilst I welcome him removing their obstructions, I certainly don't think he should be congratulated for getting out of the way.


Edit - Here's a good example, Boris recently started to talk about the UK's wind generation giving us the potential to be the 'Saudi Arabia' of wind energy.

And here's what a forum friend, who runs the 'Energy Numbers' website posted in 2012:

The UK is the Saudi Arabia of Wind Energy

thevilla

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/ofgem-opens-probes-into-two-electricity-producers-b1931914.html

You have to wonder when wind and solar produce 50% of demand and the wholesale price is still in the £100's is this the tip of the iceberg?  Seems the Market is simply a gentleman's agreement without gentlemen: like libor.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Boris is talking big again, and now that it suits him (and denial won't work anymore) he seems to like renewables, and believe in AGW/science.

It's a tad frustrating to hear him saying what so many of us have been saying for decades, but if they can deliver on this, then all the best to them, they may have arrived late to the tent, but at least they've stopped pee'ing into it from outside.

UK electricity generation to be fossil fuel free by 2035, says Boris Johnson

The prime minister has confirmed plans to eliminate fossil fuels from UK electricity generation by 2035.

Speaking during the Conservative party conference, Boris Johnson said the proposed shift would help the UK decarbonise, while softening the impact of the kind of gas price fluctuations that have prompted fears of a winter energy crisis in recent weeks.

“What I’m saying is we can do for our entire energy production by 2035 what we’re doing with internal combustion engines in vehicles by 2030,” he said, during a visit to a Network Rail site in Manchester.

Johnson said removing gas from electricity generation would help safeguard against future price surges.

“We will be reliant on our own clean power generation, which will help us also to keep costs down.”

Isn't this new and big? What do they think will fill the gas gap?  Big new (expensive) announcements on nuclear - probably including SMRs?  Have we seen any models/proposals on how this will be achieved beyond that?

[I'm not suggesting I think these solutions are the right way forward but I am speculating on what the govt intend to announce for COP26]

QrizB

thevilla said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/ofgem-opens-probes-into-two-electricity-producers-b1931914.html

You have to wonder when wind and solar produce 50% of demand and the wholesale price is still in the £100's is this the tip of the iceberg?  Seems the Market is simply a gentleman's agreement without gentlemen: like libor.

The headline price (the half-hourly one that's reported at Electric Insights and similar) is the balancing price. Very little electricity is actually sold at that price, it's just the marginal price of the most expensive power for those 30 minutes and is used to let the wholesalers balance what they've sold vs. what they've pre-purchased.
There are other, lower, prices for prior purchases day- or month-ahead.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Boris is talking big again, and now that it suits him (and denial won't work anymore) he seems to like renewables, and believe in AGW/science.

It's a tad frustrating to hear him saying what so many of us have been saying for decades, but if they can deliver on this, then all the best to them, they may have arrived late to the tent, but at least they've stopped pee'ing into it from outside.

UK electricity generation to be fossil fuel free by 2035, says Boris Johnson

The prime minister has confirmed plans to eliminate fossil fuels from UK electricity generation by 2035.

Speaking during the Conservative party conference, Boris Johnson said the proposed shift would help the UK decarbonise, while softening the impact of the kind of gas price fluctuations that have prompted fears of a winter energy crisis in recent weeks.

“What I’m saying is we can do for our entire energy production by 2035 what we’re doing with internal combustion engines in vehicles by 2030,” he said, during a visit to a Network Rail site in Manchester.

Johnson said removing gas from electricity generation would help safeguard against future price surges.

“We will be reliant on our own clean power generation, which will help us also to keep costs down.”

Isn't this new and big? What do they think will fill the gas gap?  Big new (expensive) announcements on nuclear - probably including SMRs?  Have we seen any models/proposals on how this will be achieved beyond that?

[I'm not suggesting I think these solutions are the right way forward but I am speculating on what the govt intend to announce for COP26]

I'm only guessing here, but I think Boris is 'bending the truth', but of course I hope that we can reach 100% RE (or RE + HPC (I'm going to leave out nuclear now, just to simplify my comment, and also because any new nuclear, or SMR development, is unlikely to result in actual generation before 2035)).

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that it's probably more like 100% RE net, as like you, I can't see how we would eliminate the need for gas to fill in the gaps from the ~25GW of CCGT's we have. Maybe, just maybe, the CCGT will be running on H2 sourced from RE, but that seems like a mighty task by 2035, not just to build out the storage, but also the electrolysers, and the even larger overcapacity needed to account for the ~50% efficiency.

So, again, all guesses, since we are massively expanding the number of interconnectors, up from 5GW to 7.4GW this year, and 16GW by 2025, then it might be a case that we generate most of our leccy from RE, then balance the FF gas we burn, against RE exports to Europe. There are massive problems with this idea though, the principle one being that our RE generation (mainly off-shore wind) is not exactly lined up with our European interconnectors, so we will also have to massively build out the UK grid to better serve a RE future.

But just for fun, let's run with my admittedly slightly far fetched theory, for now, and pretend we can generate the equivalent of 100% of UK leccy needs from RE. Of that we export 40%, during excess, and import 20% RE generation during shortfalls, and top up with 20% FF gas. That would mean that technically we'd be at about 100%RE 'net'. This would be akin to a PV'er being net neutral if half their leccy comes from PV, and the other half is import but equal to the PV export.

'Net' 100% RE isn't a con, nor a trick, it's just a step/milestone along the way to true 100% RE, and in my fictional example, the exports to Europe would hopefully be displacing FF generation, so the total benefits (like the PV'er helping to decarbonise the local grid) are real.

Sorry for the long waffle as usual, but do I believe Boris, of course not, the other parties (Labour, Lib Dems and Greens) have been pushing for higher targets and goals since the 2000's, so all he's doing is finally accepting that the move to RE is necessary and possible. But I do believe it's possible, and suspect that economics will drive this forward despite what the Tories really believe, so we win anyway, simply by removing the false negatives that working against RE for so long.

PS. We are currently at around 40% RE in the UK, and deploying ~3.5%pa, so 14yrs x 3.5% adds another 49%, add on HPC and we are very close to 100%. Whilst demand will slowly rise for BEV's and space heating, this can of course be balanced by simply ramping up the RE deployment, especially as costs continue to fall, so in theory we could be close to 100% low carbon by 2035, we just need to focus a bit harder, and also ramp up the intraday storage, then the longer term storage. It's actually pretty positive when you think about it, and the only hurdle was right wing negativity, that is now starting to wane.

NigeWick

shinytop said:

You say he's arrived late; which comparable countries/economies are ahead in the race?

Depends what you call a comparable country. Norway is doing quite well.

And, why should a country be "comparable"? Surely any country that has the political will can become energy independent using renewables plus storage.

"The Government of Costa Rica expects the country will generate more than 99% of its electric energy from renewable resources in 2020. ... In 2020, Costa Rica has generated 72% of its energy from hydropower, 14.9% from geothermal sources, 12% from wind and 0.54% ​​from biomass and solar panels."

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Boris is talking big again, and now that it suits him (and denial won't work anymore) he seems to like renewables, and believe in AGW/science.

It's a tad frustrating to hear him saying what so many of us have been saying for decades, but if they can deliver on this, then all the best to them, they may have arrived late to the tent, but at least they've stopped pee'ing into it from outside.

UK electricity generation to be fossil fuel free by 2035, says Boris Johnson

The prime minister has confirmed plans to eliminate fossil fuels from UK electricity generation by 2035.

Speaking during the Conservative party conference, Boris Johnson said the proposed shift would help the UK decarbonise, while softening the impact of the kind of gas price fluctuations that have prompted fears of a winter energy crisis in recent weeks.

“What I’m saying is we can do for our entire energy production by 2035 what we’re doing with internal combustion engines in vehicles by 2030,” he said, during a visit to a Network Rail site in Manchester.

Johnson said removing gas from electricity generation would help safeguard against future price surges.

“We will be reliant on our own clean power generation, which will help us also to keep costs down.”

Isn't this new and big? What do they think will fill the gas gap?  Big new (expensive) announcements on nuclear - probably including SMRs?  Have we seen any models/proposals on how this will be achieved beyond that?

[I'm not suggesting I think these solutions are the right way forward but I am speculating on what the govt intend to announce for COP26]

I'm only guessing here, but I think Boris is 'bending the truth', but of course I hope that we can reach 100% RE (or RE + HPC (I'm going to leave out nuclear now, just to simplify my comment, and also because any new nuclear, or SMR development, is unlikely to result in actual generation before 2035)).

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that it's probably more like 100% RE net, as like you, I can't see how we would eliminate the need for gas to fill in the gaps from the ~25GW of CCGT's we have. Maybe, just maybe, the CCGT will be running on H2 sourced from RE, but that seems like a mighty task by 2035, not just to build out the storage, but also the electrolysers, and the even larger overcapacity needed to account for the ~50% efficiency.

So, again, all guesses, since we are massively expanding the number of interconnectors, up from 5GW to 7.4GW this year, and 16GW by 2025, then it might be a case that we generate most of our leccy from RE, then balance the FF gas we burn, against RE exports to Europe. There are massive problems with this idea though, the principle one being that our RE generation (mainly off-shore wind) is not exactly lined up with our European interconnectors, so we will also have to massively build out the UK grid to better serve a RE future.

But just for fun, let's run with my admittedly slightly far fetched theory, for now, and pretend we can generate the equivalent of 100% of UK leccy needs from RE. Of that we export 40%, during excess, and import 20% RE generation during shortfalls, and top up with 20% FF gas. That would mean that technically we'd be at about 100%RE 'net'. This would be akin to a PV'er being net neutral if half their leccy comes from PV, and the other half is import but equal to the PV export.

'Net' 100% RE isn't a con, nor a trick, it's just a step/milestone along the way to true 100% RE, and in my fictional example, the exports to Europe would hopefully be displacing FF generation, so the total benefits (like the PV'er helping to decarbonise the local grid) are real.

Sorry for the long waffle as usual, but do I believe Boris, of course not, the other parties (Labour, Lib Dems and Greens) have been pushing for higher targets and goals since the 2000's, so all he's doing is finally accepting that the move to RE is necessary and possible. But I do believe it's possible, and suspect that economics will drive this forward despite what the Tories really believe, so we win anyway, simply by removing the false negatives that working against RE for so long.

PS. We are currently at around 40% RE in the UK, and deploying ~3.5%pa, so 14yrs x 3.5% adds another 49%, add on HPC and we are very close to 100%. Whilst demand will slowly rise for BEV's and space heating, this can of course be balanced by simply ramping up the RE deployment, especially as costs continue to fall, so in theory we could be close to 100% low carbon by 2035, we just need to focus a bit harder, and also ramp up the intraday storage, then the longer term storage. It's actually pretty positive when you think about it, and the only hurdle was right wing negativity, that is now starting to wane.

Thanks Martyn, really useful.  I think Scotland already claim something similar by using the rest of the UK as a 'giant battery' so it is clearly the way politicians think....

I also sadly expect that there will be a lot of fanfare re govt Nuclear investment both the two big stations plus SMR that will be presented as definitely being on line by 2035.  I say sadly as I suspect SMR will swallow money but never happen and the large stations may happen but at similar/higher cost than HPC locked in for 25-30 years and this is power that is basically use it or lose it and so would most likely crowd out RE overbuild