Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

This.
The move to EVs and (as with the BEV thread discussion) reduction in personal ownership through credit withdrawal etc etc and every government doing more QE only this time on infrastructure (public transport).
A drop in oil prices due to recession then massive increase in prices afterwards will also kill off a lot of it, taking us back to walking around and going by public transport.

Or simply just legislation or green deals will do the job.
The running to the shop for a pint of milk can be done by walking or electric moped/bike (if they ever get round to legalising them!) I saw a meme the other day saying the UK used to have the worlds largest fleet of electric delivery vehicles (milk floats!) and what happened to them?

You've posted like this a few times you remind me of the house price crash cheerleaders

Developed countries are very rich
A lot of people in the UK have a lot of wealth
About one third own their own homes outright
Another one third of homes have mortgages but small mortgages

Average male full time.median wages are in the ballpark of £35k
Some £200 billion a year is gifted from old to less old
Some £600 billion a year is earned outside of wages
Some £200 billion is eaent in the black/grey market

Never forget the UK is a £2 trillion per year value added economy with over £10 trillion net wealth

Simply put the negative picture you paid isn't accurate

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

Simply put the negative picture you paid isn't accurate

I guess time will tell... ;-)

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

I guess time will tell... ;-)

I've been hearing your type of doom and gloom since 2001......

There is another poster on these boards called western promise he sometimes links threads to internet discussions in the early 1990s with the same doom and gloom you prot..... It's fascinating it's just like a mirror imagine of today's doomers. It's probably been ongoing as long as humans have been around

You're not original you have no insight you're just one of the great apes that is always pessimistic and telling the tribe there are lions in them there bushes. Time to evolve

Even if you're right which is very unlikely it's better to live in optimism and be wrong rather than live in pessimism and be right

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

I've been hearing your type of doom and gloom since 2001......

Around the time of the dot com crash and around the time I was doing data comms software for a company supplying Worldcom..... About that time you mean? First and only time Id ever been laid off.. that time?

GreatApe wrote: »

internet discussions in the early 1990s with the same doom and gloom you prot.....

I remember 1991 quite well, I graduated with a degree in engineering, only 10% of my class could get jobs because there was something of a recession on. Went on to do a masters and get a job at the end of 1992 only as a temporary contractor as there was still a full time recruitment freeze on... around that time?
You can google the UK recession of 1991-1992 if you like...

GreatApe wrote: »

Even if you're right which is very unlikely it's better to live in optimism and be wrong rather than live in pessimism and be right

Personally I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Its funny when you have lived/graduated in/been laid off in/run a business through previous crashes, you get a sense for the things you missed back then. Im running the same business I did in 2007 and it looks very familiar at the minute.. uncannily familiar in fact.
I dont know about the rest of your sources but Ive only really noticed it the last 18 months 2 years or so, which prompted the installation of the solar/battery and bringing me to comment on this forum.

mmmmikey

GreatApe wrote: »

What self drive technology allows is to increase the utilisation of cars

So instead of the UK having 35 million cars used 5% of the time we might go to 12 million cars used 15% of the time. This is a massive increase in productivity. It means we need to manufacture only 1/3rd as many cars per year.

That alone saves the UK a massive sum of money. Going from 2.5 million cars at say £25k to 0.8 million cars at £30k each is a near £40 billion per year saving for UK consumers or close to £1,500 per household.

It's in fact more than this. For instant how much do kids spend learning to drive? Let's say £1k each and 800,000 people learn led year this is another £0.8 billion per year saving.

And ideally these will be safer than humans. If the average insurance is £500 and say half that goes to fix accidents and accidents fall by half that's about a £5 billion saving

Of you keep adding up the savings it comes to somewhere around £60-80 billion

So why do we need self drive cars?
Because it allows us to divert £60-80 billion in resources to something else
That's like hiring a million more doctors

It's a huge huge prize the biggest near term prize you can imagine

But isn't that a massively complicated way of solving the problem?



Why not simply adapt our lifestyles so we don't need as many cars, establish schemes for shared car ownership and improve public transport?

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

Around the time of the dot com crash and around the time I was doing data comms software for a company supplying Worldcom..... About that time you mean? First and only time Id ever been laid off.. that time?

I remember 1991 quite well, I graduated with a degree in engineering, only 10% of my class could get jobs because there was something of a recession on. Went on to do a masters and get a job at the end of 1992 only as a temporary contractor as there was still a full time recruitment freeze on... around that time?
You can google the UK recession of 1991-1992 if you like...

Personally I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Its funny when you have lived/graduated in/been laid off in/run a business through previous crashes, you get a sense for the things you missed back then. Im running the same business I did in 2007 and it looks very familiar at the minute.. uncannily familiar in fact.
I dont know about the rest of your sources but Ive only really noticed it the last 18 months 2 years or so, which prompted the installation of the solar/battery and bringing me to comment on this forum.

So you live in fear of temporary dips on economic output

Hardly a lion in the bush about to eat you

More like 1/20th of your tribe are temporarily unemployed

Best avoided but hardly the end of the world

GreatApe

mmmmikey wrote: »

But isn't that a massively complicated way of solving the problem?

Why not simply adapt our lifestyles so we don't need as many cars, establish schemes for shared car ownership and improve public transport?

Public transport is typically a net cost so does the opposite

Shared car ownership could potentially work but suffers from the problem of users not parking properly or parking in odd far away places making that unit unusable or low productivity.

Not sure how you plan to adapt your lifestyle to not need cars.
If a person lives 20 miles from work they are hardly going to walk or bus that
You can't just say move home because that is a huge cost and it's not a net solution as jobs as commercial and residential areas tend to be zoned into different places

We also don't want to make a saving at the cost of lost time because time has real value to people

One potential is electric scooters in urban areas which 80% of the UK is
But those are likely to lead to more accidents both minor or major so I'm not sure they will be a net saving


So yes maybe there are other ways but they must be unrealistic in the real world else this £60-80 billion prize would have been claimed by these other methods

JKenH

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/03/scrap-fuel-duty-introduce-road-pricing-herald-rise-electric/

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

Its not the software, its the data. Seriously, go sit in a Tesla and see what I mean.
The leaders are Tesla, Uber and Lyft, google maps traffic etc, the rest are so far behind (except surprisingly Volvo) because they dont have data of their own. The best self driving software is useless without the data.
Thats why I changed my mind about Tesla, that and every single place I stopped had a Tesla fast charger in the US. The cash burn also funded the infrastructure, which again the others are relying on 3rd parties to provide.

Definitely the data, especially as Tesla has 100's of thousands of cars out there right now collecting a ton of data every day. They are clocking up billions of miles of data v's at best millions by other companies.

Their big bet though is going with cameras not LIDAR due to the limitations on LIDAR in bad weather.

I've no idea if Tesla will pull this off, but they seem serious about autonomy in just a few years, and have just bought Deepscale AI, a small company but top talent and lower power running of neural nets, also their first products leverage data coming from cameras, which circles us back to Tesla.

Hyperchange article on Deepscale purchase with Galileo explaining potential reasons/benefits.

Regarding autonomy, it's essential for cheap taxi's, and cheap taxi's might displace most owned transport from cities if it gets cheap enough (per mile).

Tesla's already have lower crash rates per mile, and even lower again when autopilot is engaged, so fully autonomous cars should be far, far safer in the medium term - might even force us out of the driving seat via insurance costs!

Martyn1981

More strings to our bow.

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