Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

michaels wrote: »

Sorry, haven't read and my qs are probably answered in the link.
1 Are CFD payments symmetrical? Are subsidies paid when production happens when prices are below the strike price offset by removing profit when sales are at a price higher than the CFD.
2 Just be uase CFD are close to average market price doesn't mean subsidy free. If all wind generation happened when prices are low then there could still be huge subsidies paid even if the strike price was below the average market price.

1. Yes, the link has a graphic showing that when sales are made above the strike price, the extra is paid back into the subsidy pot.

If, big if, the government wanted to support PV and on-shore wind, but not pay out subsidies, then issuing a CfD with a strike price close to, or even below average prices would work well. the benefit to the developer is in having a guaranteed income, and from that could get lower financing costs.

2. Yes, theoretically having a CfD roughly at average doesn't guarantee subsidy free, and the obvious one (for me) would be PV, where there may be a glut around midday in the summer, so averages prices would be reduced, but hopefully storage and BEV's will balance that out.

But for off-shore wind I think average wholesale price is a fair comparison as wind generates most in winter (higher demand), at dawn and dusk (higher demand) and night ....... oops (lower demand) but ....... again back to BEV's, we can expect an increase in nightime demand.

Also note that UK off-shore farms generate ~85% of the time, and collectively 100% of the time, but to be clear, generation at those high percentiles will be very low.

I'm not suggesting that off-shore wind with CfD's close to anticipated wholesale averages will be subsidy free, but I'd hazard a guess that it'll be close, and therefore something to cheer, especially since that average price won't reflect all the externalities of the FF and nuclear generation.

Also, there is the potential for costs to keep falling, so we could in the future see subsidy free contracts but with a lease fee, raising income. Or bidding taking the CfD strike price below average, with hopefully an annual surplus into the subsidy pot.

Exiled_Tyke

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/DmZ6C9zSsR/road_to_clean_energy

Most readers on here will already know most of this, but it's an interesting, succinct and clear summary of where we have come to in an incredibly short space of time.

mmmmikey

Exiled_Tyke wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/DmZ6C9zSsR/road_to_clean_energy

Most readers on here will already know most of this, but it's an interesting, succinct and clear summary of where we have come to in an incredibly short space of time.

Yes, a good summary. There is an associated more detailed report you can download from here:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48186443

GreatApe

michaels wrote: »

If all wind generation happened when prices are low then there could still be huge subsidies paid even if the strike price was below the average market price.

Exactly

Wind and especially solar crash their own prices so subsidy is going to be stike price minus wholesale when they are producing which could even be negative. I wonder if there is a cap at zero or they get the difference even if negative. This also brings up the question of manipulation of the wholesale market....

Another factor is who pays the grid fees. I think in the UK it's the wind farms themselves but in some EU nations the grid operator pays for the connection and hence why they can bid lower prices although of course it's an accounting trick those wind farms aren't producing electricity cheaper than UK wind farms a few miles down the ocean it's that the accountants playing their tricks

Most important is the acceptance that the true value of wind farms or PV farms is the marginal cost of generating which is a lot lower than the wholesale price.

Martyn1981

Lots of news, but to save on posts I'll slap em all together!

Good news that the climate is taking top spot in people's concerns, but sad to see the UK a little behind:

Climate crisis seen as 'most important issue' by public, poll shows

Eight-country poll shows people view climate crisis as priority over migration and terrorism

A majority of the public recognise the climate crisis as an “emergency” and say politicians are failing to tackle the problem, backing the interests of big oil over the wellbeing of ordinary people, according to an eight-country poll.

The survey, which comes before what is expected to be the world’s biggest climate demonstrations on Friday, found that climate breakdown is viewed as the most important issue facing the world, ahead of migration, terrorism and the global economy, in seven out of the eight countries surveyed. In the US it comes third behind terrorism and affordable healthcare.

Be nice to see annual GHG's go down instead of up, and halving would be, very nice.

Scientists set out how to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030

Greenhouse gas emissions could be halved in the next decade if a small number of current technologies and behavioural trends are ramped up and adopted more widely, researchers have found, saying strong civil society movements are needed to drive such change.

Solar and wind power, now cheaper than fossil fuels in many regions, must be scaled up rapidly to replace coal-fired generation, and this alone could halve emissions from electricity generation by 2030, according to the Exponential Roadmap report from an international group of experts.

If the rapid uptake of electric vehicles in some parts of the world could be sustained, the vehicles could make up 90% of the market by 2030, vastly reducing emissions from transport, it said.

Wind power: crown estate opens new bids for seabed rights

The crown estate has opened the first leasing round for offshore windfarms in a decade to usher in a new generation of wind projects expected to eventually generate an investment of £20bn.

The business intends to auction off new seabed rights in the waters around England and Wales to wind power developers. The leasing scheme allows up to 7GW of electricity generation capacity – enough to meet the needs of more than 6m homes.

Australia could produce 200% of energy needs from renewables by 2050, researchers say

Australia could run entirely on renewable electricity and produce double what it needs to create a massive green export industry by 2050, leading experts say.

A report from scientists working under the Australian-German Energy Transition Hub has examined the economic opportunities of decarbonisation over the coming decades.

It finds that with the right policy support, Australia could become a global leader “both in climate mitigation and the export of zero-carbon energy” in the form of green hydrogen, green steel and other products such as aluminium produced from green electricity.

Martyn1981

If you've ever wondered how the US went from President Bush (Republican) in 1988 confirming the existence and seriousness of AGW, and the need to act, to today's Republican Party whose individuals political existence depends on them denying AGW science, then this short and funny explanation pretty much covers it all.

Meet the Rich: The Koch Brothers | Full Frontal on TBS


And a bonus, golden oldie, because it's just so funny.

Climate Change Debate: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

Martyn1981

I'm getting all excited, we are nearly there, 8am tomorrow morning can't come quick enough - reminds me of Xmas Eve back in the 70's.

UK auction results expected on 20 September

Industry sources have suggested that bid prices could well be below £50/MWh (US$62/MWh) or lower still, well below the reference prices published by BEIS.

Analysts have previously suggested that a subsidy-free deployment of offshore wind capacity could occur with contracts in the range of £47-£49/MWh (US$58-$61/MWh).

Of course they could be wrong, and I assume that those prices are in 'baseline 2012' monies, but still well below the 2017 results of £57.50/MWh (£65/MWh 2019 monies).

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If you've ever wondered how the US went from President Bush (Republican) in 1988 confirming the existence and seriousness of AGW, and the need to act, to today's Republican Party whose individuals political existence depends on them denying AGW science, then this short and funny explanation pretty much covers it all.

Meet the Rich: The Koch Brothers | Full Frontal on TBS

And a bonus, golden oldie, because it's just so funny.

Climate Change Debate: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

Reality 2008 - 2018

USA per capita emmissions down 16%
Germany per capita emmissions down 11%

In fact the USA figures are even better than this 16% reduction because they have also reduced oil imports from about 3 billion barrels towards net zero.

The left like to think the world works on 'will' especially 'political will' if only we can protest enough then the 'will' will solve it all. Poverty homelessness despair illnesses cancer sadness depression and wind power it's all just a lack of will......those evil right wingers lack will when we are in power we will will into existence prosperity and wealth and the cure to cancer

Clearly reality doesn't work off will but works off economics and technology and productivity.

Having said that the USA could and should deploy more and more wind and solar
If they maintain a -16% per decade figure that's pretty good
I suspect in a 'do nothing scenario' this reduction will in fact accelerate as near AI allows more economic more rapid deployment of alternatives and BEVs make the grid and solar/wind deployment more productive

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I'm getting all excited, we are nearly there, 8am tomorrow morning can't come quick enough - reminds me of Xmas Eve back in the 70's.

UK auction results expected on 20 September

Of course they could be wrong, and I assume that those prices are in 'baseline 2012' monies, but still well below the 2017 results of £57.50/MWh (£65/MWh 2019 monies).

Are the bids for a certain capacity and if so how much capacity is it for and which years are they bids coming online. Might be worthwhile you making a separate thread for that tomorrow would be interesting

At a certain price it's probably worthwhile increasing deployment more rapidly
At £40/MWh at today's prices I'd be happy to see 5GW/Yr
Up until 15% of wind is curtailed
At £40 and 15% curtailment the non curtailed would be £47/MWh equivalent which is probably acceptable

But really sooner rather than later wind farm developers should be forced to develop wind farms that are at least 60% CF this can be done by oversizing blades or over locking wind farms basically curtailment at the farm level which is more efficient and productive than Curtailment at the grid level

JKenH

GreatApe wrote: »

Reality 2008 - 2018

USA per capita emmissions down 16%
Germany per capita emmissions down 11%

In fact the USA figures are even better than this 16% reduction because they have also reduced oil imports from about 3 billion barrels towards net zero.

The left like to think the world works on 'will' especially 'political will' if only we can protest enough then the 'will' will solve it all. Poverty homelessness despair illnesses cancer sadness depression and wind power it's all just a lack of will......those evil right wingers lack will when we are in power we will will into existence prosperity and wealth and the cure to cancer

Clearly reality doesn't work off will but works off economics and technology and productivity.

Having said that the USA could and should deploy more and more wind and solar
If they maintain a -16% per decade figure that's pretty good
I suspect in a 'do nothing scenario' this reduction will in fact accelerate as near AI allows more economic more rapid deployment of alternatives and BEVs make the grid and solar/wind deployment more productive

There is a fundamental difference between the Right who tend to be more optimistic that things will work out (not just regarding climate change) and the Left who are more pessimistic in outlook and feel greater need for intervention by the state.