Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

ASavvyBuyer wrote: »

Even more great news:
Electric Cars Are Cleaner Even When Powered by Coal

I will see your more good news, and raise you, even more.

Immediate fossil fuel phaseout could arrest climate change – study

Climate change could be kept in check if a phaseout of all fossil fuel infrastructure were to begin immediately, according to research.

It shows that meeting the internationally agreed aspiration of keeping global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is still possible. The scientists say it is therefore the choices being made by global society, not physics, which is the obstacle to meeting the goal.

The study found that if all fossil fuel infrastructure – power plants, factories, vehicles, ships and planes – from now on are replaced by zero-carbon alternatives at the end of their useful lives, there is a 64% chance of staying under 1.5C.

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used computer models to estimate by how much global temperatures would rise if a fossil fuel infrastructure phaseout began immediately. The lifespan for power plants was set at 40 years, cars an average of 15 years and planes 26 years. The work also assumes a rapid end to beef and dairy consumption, which is responsible for significant global emissions.

silverwhistle

zeupater wrote: »

.... I seem to remember that
Z

My recollection was of a Tory peer, and the wilds of Northumberland were also mentioned..


The interesting thing about the study Martyn references is that it assumes replacement at end of life. When you hear people talking about EVs one of the objections is "why scrap a perfectly good car?".



In the case of FF plants it may happen earlier as they get uncompetitive based on the fuel cost alone.

EricMears

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

I'm astounded that it's taken so long for an article to appear that states this ....

Possibly because it's self evident ?

Whether petrol or diesel, ICEs have a pretty low efficiency AND dump all their waste gases wherever they happen to be, Catalytic converters are only a slight amelioration.

OTOH, however old a coal fire power station might be , its efficiency is a lot better than an ICE's, exhaust gases are probably filtered far more efficiently than an on-board exhaust system could ever manage and they're discharged to atmosphere at a very high level so dissipate before anyone can breathe them in.

Martyn1981

And the good news keeps coming. Well good ideas that could be positive for UK PV and on-shore wind.

I've mentioned net-subsidy free CfD contracts before (I think), but this idea goes a step further. It suggests a floor price for the technology, which could even be lower than the expected average wholesale price.

The benefit, is that the company can get investors because there is a guaranteed minimum income - a back stop of a strike price, even if it is lower than the hoped for average.

Any subsidies received have to be repaid from more profitable sales, before the company can pocket the extra, hoped for income.

Nice idea? I think so, plus the suggested prices of around £30-£35/MWh for on-shore wind, and PV £40 (in 2030, so perhaps a £40-£45/MWh CfD for 15yrs that straddle that point) compare well with estimated wholesale costs of about £50/MWh.

Perhaps, another way to look at it is that we (the folk paying into the subsidy pot) only 'lose' by seeing too much paid out, if prices are much lower than expected ..... at which point we benefit from the overall lower prices anyway ..... IYSWIM.

Hard to see the downside, or am I missing something?

Government must re-examine established renewables policy, consider ‘CfD Floor’ mechanism

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

And another 10 arrives, expect 'Spinal Tap' and more soon.

Sometimes it's nice to be wrong!

Forget Spinal Tap, the dial has been turned up to 12 for an actual deployment (OK prototype testing) this year ...... already:

World’s Largest Wind Turbine Prototype, GE’s 12 Megawatt Haliade-X, To Be Installed In Rotterdam

Any bets on when we'll see an actual deployment of a 15MW, 20MW .... 50MW WT?

ASavvyBuyer

More News:

Wylfa Newydd: Hitachi to halt work on UK nuclear plant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46900918

michaels

ASavvyBuyer wrote: »

More News:

Wylfa Newydd: Hitachi to halt work on UK nuclear plant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46900918

Did this plant have a strike price for its output?

I ask as that determines whether the decision is based on build and operating costs being uneconomic given the strike price or whether it is actually uncertainty over long term energy prices (due to how cheap renewables are getting as mentioned above) that is the problem?

Martyn1981

michaels wrote: »

Did this plant have a strike price for its output?

I ask as that determines whether the decision is based on build and operating costs being uneconomic given the strike price or whether it is actually uncertainty over long term energy prices (due to how cheap renewables are getting as mentioned above) that is the problem?

So far only HPC has gotten a strike price. That was £89.50/MWh, (in today's money £99.87/MWh) for 35yrs. This was an agreed price, not an auction.

If its sister plant Sizewell C (SC) doesn't begin construction before the first HPC reactor comes on line, then the price goes up to £92.50/MWh (approx £103/MWh). [We get a £3/MWh discount on HPC if we order SC too.]

For SC no price has been announced, but negotiations are apparently based around - needing to be significantly cheaper than HPC.

What does significantly cheaper mean - I've no idea. £90/MWh today would be significantly cheaper than £100 (10% cheaper, and 20% lower subsidy, assuming an average wholesale price of £50).

For the other 3 powerstations, Wylfa, the government was going to invest £5bn itself in order to reduce the required CfD price, and therefore the subsidies. But note that 2017's off-shore windfarm price of £57.50 (about £64 in today's money) would provide the equivalent amount of generation for approx £5bn in subsidies. And this years CfD auction is expected to be cheaper again.

Wylfa's sister (Olbury) must now also be at risk, and then there's the slightly smaller Bradwell B scheme, but this time with the French/Chinese teams reversed, and the Chinese to lead the project.

Given that negotiations have been going on for years, regarding all the projects, I think it's fair to assume that a mutually acceptable price couldn't be agreed. The government wants to pay less, the companies can't afford to risk going cheaper. I doubt these giant corporations would want to lose this business by playing hardball, so I suspect new nuclear simply can't be delivered at an agreeable and economic price for both sides.

Purely my thoughts, but I'm still fascinated by the government's decision to review the HPC deal in 2016, after the Brexit vote. Folk may recall that TM announced a review the day before the signing ceremony, and when the Chinese were already here. To embarrass the Chinese like that, when future trade deals had just become more important, suggests to me that they were desperate and really, really didn't think it was a good price anymore, and wanted out, or a better deal. I suspect the Chinese suggested that she didn't want to embarrass them, and TM went on to sign the contract.

Based purely on my thoughts, I think the government, whilst still supporting nuclear, has realised that the prices are extremely high v's falling RE costs, and that's why everything has gone to carp as there simply is no solution at the moment, unless they get a much, much cheaper price, or pull the plug and go all in on RE.

PS - Whilst already low RE prices are most certainly an important part here, as you suggested, I think even more doubt is being delivered with the falling costs of storage, and the potential for a wider range of RE and inter country trading. Nuclear really needs the wind to not blow and the sun to not shine, to make it worth considering, and storage might be the coming change that is undermining nuclear's last argument.

Martyn1981

Better than my 'off the top of head' rememberings, here's a news article looking at nuclear and other possibilities for the UK:

Does Hitachi decision mean the end of UK's nuclear ambitions?

Martyn1981

And another article, but this one is clearly more pro-RE (a bit like me )

Nuclear power can be green – but at a price