Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

ASavvyBuyer

Not sure if Martyn has posted this before, but details of the battery system at the Pen y Cymoedd Wind Farm in South Wales (not far from where we live).

https://corporate.vattenfall.co.uk/projects/batterypyc/

lstar337

ASavvyBuyer wrote: »

Not sure if Martyn has posted this before, but details of the battery system at the Pen y Cymoedd Wind Farm in South Wales (not far from where we live).

https://corporate.vattenfall.co.uk/projects/batterypyc/

Sweet! Now I know where to go when I need some batteries! :rotfl:

Martyn1981

lstar337 wrote: »

Sweet! Now I know where to go when I need some batteries! :rotfl:

Should I be worried, could you clarify which S. Wales location you intend to 'visit'?

Need to get a large dog.

Martyn1981

Very big news, and I mean big news. This article suggests that off-shore wind could deliver an enormous amount of additional capacity (30GW up from 6GW) with a subsidy free CfD. That is a CfD based on average prices, so net subsidy will be zero, but it gives developers the assurance to invest and build.

UK could support 30GW by 2030

Aurora suggested by awarding Contracts for Difference (CfD) support deals that are effectively subsidy free but give revenue stabilisation; and by allowing offshore wind projects to "revenue-stack" — permitting entrance in to the capacity market, for example — offshore wind capacity would grow from the 6GW currently installed, to up to 30GW by 2030.

Aurora's research found offshore wind can expect a 25-30% reduction in capital costs to 2025 due to the growth in turbine ratings, which many in the industry believe to reach 13-15GW in that period.

Beyond the report, Aurora said it has modelled some scenarios in which UK offshore capacity could reach 40GW. That would require the implementation of the measures above, plus a carbon price reaching £100 per tone by 2030, no further nuclear build beyond the delayed and overpriced Hinkley Point C, a limited onshore wind build-out, and a greater reduction in offshore wind capex and opex through technological advancement.

For context, an increase of 24GW of off-shore wind, with a capacity factor of 50% (the bigger WT's are approaching these cf's), would be an average of 12GW.

Average UK demand is approx 40GW, so this additional generation would be 30%, roughly equal to all renewable generation last year which was somewhere in the high 20's as a percentage.

michaels

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Very big news, and I mean big news. This article suggests that off-shore wind could deliver an enormous amount of additional capacity (30GW up from 6GW) with a subsidy free CfD. That is a CfD based on average prices, so net subsidy will be zero, but it gives developers the assurance to invest and build.

UK could support 30GW by 2030







For context, an increase of 24GW of off-shore wind, with a capacity factor of 50% (the bigger WT's are approaching these cf's), would be an average of 12GW.

Average UK demand is approx 40GW, so this additional generation would be 30%, roughly equal to all renewable generation last year which was somewhere in the high 20's as a percentage.

Isn't there a problem here though that the more wind you have the more often it will be generating at times where there is a 'glut' of power and spot prices are bid right down. Thus just because wind is competitive with the 'average' spot price doesn't mean that the average price that wind leccy is sold at will be the average market price. IE still needing a subsidy and perhaps the more wind you build the more subsidy it will need?

zeupater

michaels wrote: »

Isn't there a problem here though that the more wind you have the more often it will be generating at times where there is a 'glut' of power and spot prices are bid right down. Thus just because wind is competitive with the 'average' spot price doesn't mean that the average price that wind leccy is sold at will be the average market price. IE still needing a subsidy and perhaps the more wind you build the more subsidy it will need?

Hi

Seems that you've missed the 'cunning-plan' email .. it must be lurking at the bottom of your inbox ...

With all of this talk about Brexit, people are completely forgetting that Europe will still be as many miles away as it is now (give or take a few yards as the tide changes!), so there's a massive 'cheap' energy export potential .. the UK effectively becoming the 'Saudi Arabia' of the north with sovereign wealth funds etc ...

Now, just to upset up to 48% of the population to some degree or other .... as the UK economy grows, the EU considers that they're due more into their pot to pay for sandwiches & wine in Brussels & maybe some 'Partially financed by .." advertising billboards which seem to clutter every corner of the continent ... Brexit's just a cunning plan to keep all of those £squillions in HMTreasury's money-box not someone else's ... well isn't that what everybody else's secret email (the red,white&blue one that says that we're not supposed to tell anyone with an EU security ID dangled around their neck!) says ? ... :shhh::whistle: ... :rotfl:

Rather flippant, but the truth is out there (or in there) somewhere ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

michaels wrote: »

Isn't there a problem here though that the more wind you have the more often it will be generating at times where there is a 'glut' of power and spot prices are bid right down. Thus just because wind is competitive with the 'average' spot price doesn't mean that the average price that wind leccy is sold at will be the average market price. IE still needing a subsidy and perhaps the more wind you build the more subsidy it will need?

It also means more off-shore wind selling into the higher and peakier price range, which can be many times greater than 'average'.

Also don't underestimate storage/arbitrage. The cheaper leccy gets at peak supply, the greater the profit margin of selling it at peak demand, combined with falling storage costs. So this will act as a natural balance to prevent prices moving too far (either way) from average.

Also consider that whilst nuclear is relatively predictable to generate during peak demand times, it's also just as predictable to generate during low demand times, so whilst less peaky than wind, it raises similar issues but at nearly double the price giving a lot of headroom for storage.

And no I'm not nuclear bashing, just looking for the alternative, and 30% of UK demand by 2030 at zero subsidy (net) is a hell of a challenge to nuclear deployments of 5-7% of demand each from 2030 onwards at a much higher price.

Martyn1981

Detailed article on CSP and the tumbling costs. Sadly not a UK option. Phooey.

24-Hour Solar Energy: Molten Salt Makes It Possible, and Prices Are Falling Fast

Martyn1981

Brexit aside, this is good news:

European Union Votes To Increase 2030 Renewable Energy Goal To 35%

Just for clarity, that's 35% of energy, not electricity. I think the UK is now around 10%.

Also whilst not wishing to play with numbers, an increase from 27% to 35% is quite substantial, as the increase (in the target) is nearly 30%, so certainly a positive move.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Well, well, wind went 'off the dial' on Gridwatch last night, hitting 10.4GW. And the 'owner' of this site just said that he'll need to change his 13GW dial as that's been 'hit' too.

[Edit - As at 8am it's off the dial again on Gridwatch with 10.2GW. That won't make the author of the site happy, as he doesn't like RE. M.]

And the results are in, and the winner is .....

UK storms ahead with new wind power record

The UK’s wind power sector has reached new heights this week by breaking its record for the amount of electricity generated at any one time.

At lunchtime on Tuesday, wind power was generating 13.6 gigawatts (GW), supplying 29% of all electricity in Britain. The previous record was 12.4GW, set in December 2017. By contrast, coal power was producing 2.5GW at the time.

The record is the latest example of the central role that wind power, and renewables, is now playing in the UK’s rapidly changing energy mix. Figures for 2017 show that wind generated 14.6% of electricity, while all low-carbon sources provided a record 50%. Fossil fuels provided 47.7% across the whole year.