Solar: how much you paid (£) how much you have generated (kWh) and date of install.

spaceboy

cepheus wrote: »

You can't prove that a £5,000 for 4kW is possible either, since you don't know how reliable such as cheap system would be over the 25 years. There's all sorts of cheap appliances which are designed to sell not last, possibly like these companies themselves. What we can be sure of is that the same system will be far more cost effective in a sunnier country and with economies of scale. You can never win on a microscale in the Uk, because we are talking about the same technology.

Perhaps you can run through these figures from the consumer programme I posted, I don't think they will be on that site. These include a finance deal, but you can strip that interest out if you like.

Location 1 Yorkshire.
Cost £11,000 plus £6000 interest over 10y
It looks like much of their roof is covered both sides have a look at the link
They have generated £628 over 20 months
Payback time including finance 48 years. However because they took out finance they could claim of them when their installer went bust!

Location 2 Devon
£12,000+£6000 finance
They generate only £2 per day
This will take 40 years to pay off

Why are you looking at installations which cost over-the-odds?

zeupater

spaceboy wrote: »

Why are you looking at installations which cost over-the-odds?

Hi

Probably because Cepheus believes that it supports a viewpoint, which seems to be based more on some form of misplaced ideology than either logic or evidence ...

The quoted figures are in-line with a number of posts which we see on the boards which are related to sales & finance (possibly Green deal ?) 'companies' which use high pressure sales techniques but then sub-contract the installation, usually to an unrelated MCS registered installer, having set the price+finance combination at a level designed to relieve the customer of almost all savings benefit over the period of the FiT scheme ...

I'm surprised that there are still people around which are still naïve enough to fall for such schemes, but from a number of recent posts, there obviously are .... some may even justify the high price being due to additional administrational costs linked to arranging finance or the governments 'Green Deal' scheme ... we see it all and loads of regular members attempt to provide guidance to help steer people in the right direction whenever we can, but it's really got nothing to do with the industry as a whole and, in this case, is just an opportunist ploy to divert attention from more relevant issues on a number of threads - 'smoke & mirrors' and the offer to remove the finance costs still leave the high price which is related to the issue, which suits an ideological viewpoint more than looking for the truth ....

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

cepheus wrote: »

You can't prove that a £5,000 for 4kW is possible either, since you don't know how reliable such as cheap system would be over the 25 years. There's all sorts of cheap appliances which are designed to sell not last, possibly like these companies themselves. What we can be sure of is that the same system will be far more cost effective in a sunnier country and with economies of scale. You can never win on a microscale in the Uk, because we are talking about the same technology.

Now you are just getting hysterical in a desperate attempt to defend your unsubstantiated vitriol against PV.

Firstly, your original claims were that wind is cheaper than PV, so please don't think I (or I suspect anyone else) have missed the fact that you are trying to change the argument into a supply side v's demand side argument.

Next, claiming that I can't prove a £5k install is possible is absolute gibberish, there have been many such installs on here, and using (as Z points out) MCS approved kit. This is possibly your most pathetic attempt so far to rubbish PV. You are desperately suggesting that systems won't work (but wind turbines work without fault) so that you can get away with your unsubstantiated claims.

Then, you move on to saying PV generates more in sunnier climes. Of course it does, that's why I never thought it would meet (or beat) wind in the UK, but the relevant subsidies show that it is doing so. Also, why drag up this relative generation issue. Just because something works better elsewhere, doesn't mean it won't work here ..... DOES IT! Is the UK the very best place in the world for wind energy, if not, then does that mean we shouldn't be installing it. Should every car driver get rid of their cars because taxi drivers get better value from their's?

Micro-scale - you keep missing the point, firstly the economies of scale aren't as great for PV as with other technologies. Secondly, demand side generation doesn't have to be as cheap as supply side generation to be economically viable, since it's income stream is higher. Do you understand that, if not I'll explain more?

Mart.

Martyn1981

cepheus wrote: »

Perhaps you can run through these figures from the consumer programme I posted, I don't think they will be on that site. These include a finance deal, but you can strip that interest out if you like.

Location 1 Yorkshire.
Cost £11,000 plus £6000 interest over 10y
It looks like much of their roof is covered both sides have a look at the link
They have generated £628 over 20 months
Payback time including finance 48 years. However because they took out finance they could claim of them when their installer went bust!

Location 2 Devon
£12,000+£6000 finance
They generate only £2 per day
This will take 40 years to pay off

Bad form cepheus, bad form. And just another diversion from the main point.

Now you are trying to rubbish the economics of PV by pointing out overpriced rip offs. How does that help.

You are now displaying very dirty tactics.

If you can be bothered you can do some checking over my posts, and see how many times I've tried to warn people about dodgy deals. I've also:

Contacted the EST to ask them to correct inaccurate and misleading figures.

Contacted RECC and asked them to look at several threads regarding the rip off guys, and had several e-mail exchanges with them.

Contacted Barclays Partner Finance and explained that most of the rip off deals are being offered with Barclays loans.

Have you done any of this?

So don't point to dodgy sales prices, when we were supposed to be having an adult discussion about the real costs of PV generation.

BTW - why won't you show your 15p calcs? I'm not asking you to do any work, or effort whatsoever. I'm simply asking you to show the calculations you did to arrive at 15p.

You did do some calculations ........ didn't you?

Mart.

silverwhistle

cepheus wrote: »

My concern about this board was that potential Eco-enthisiasts would think that 'Green living' is about solar panels. In reality it is probably the least effective methods in the UK, since the subsidy could be used to save so much more elsewhere. This includes not just generating power but avoiding the need for it.

I don't doubt your concerns, just your evidence (or lack of it) for the figures you've plucked out of the air. Why use examples of grossly over-priced systems and even more so, grossly over-priced finance? It really does devalue your argument completely, and makes people mark you down as someone who they can safely ignore.

As it happens you'll find that those of us who have spent 6 grand of our own money are also the ones who have already ensured avoiding the use of power, and indeed, a certain level of efficiency is required to receive the FIT.

cepheus

zeupater wrote: »

Hi Cepheus ..

If you're looking for data, then why not look for masses of data ... PVOutput ( http://pvoutput.org/ ) has somewhere around 20,000 systems registered globally, with a couple of thousand being in the UK

OK, I've entered the twenty longest records on that site 1588 to 2074 days, into a google spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jhNwvgAXPBFSoziGdmkAai-wL3gbBV_n70jRuKyo7sQ/edit#gid=0

Thats reasonably consistent with the few people who have supplied data on here. The average return is around 2.62 Kwh/day/Kw.

Now to convert this to non-subsided costs, there has to be a lot of assumptions. Obviously there will be large differences of opinion on maintenance/replacement costs, particularly the inverter, so I've included these input variables in red so you can change them to your hearts content.

Another variable is how much is used and exported, I understand a lot of the calculators assume a 50:50 split which I've used here but you can change it if you wish.

The Exported retail price is around 5p/kWh and the domestic price around 15p/kWh

I've entered the default cost of inverters as £1000 per ten years, but this can be changed in accordance the reference given. I expect the components in the cheaper Chinese PV systems might not last as the more expensive German ones so it's important to state which ones are being used.

One Northern company thinks the cost of cleaning the panels is around £35 and this should be once a year. Another company claims twice a year. My guess is that frequent cleaning can rarely be economically justified. However, the reduction in PV output of 0.8% in the study cited must assume clean units, so I've conservatively assumed the cleaning only takes place every other year for the purpose of this sheet, or else a larger deterioration figure should be used.

Most insurance companies only expect their customers to ensure the overall sum insured for their house covers the cost of the panels. However, it would be inappropriate to assume they are zero cost, so I've assumed the PV panels add 4% (£6000 of a 150k rebuild) to the average premium of £250 which is £10 per annum. This assumes, however that the reliability/security of PV is no different than any other part of the house which is a very unlikely. If PV clients aren't paying more, someone must be, the cost of accidents isn't negative or zero. Either the employees, shareholders or most likely other customers must be paying it in their premiums. Remember this is an unsubsidised calculation! For the sake of ten quid a year it makes little difference unless the real costs are much higher which they could be.

Since the panels used in the calculation have already 4-6 years old I've assumed the figures relate to a 5yr old system and the output was slightly greater than the figures used in previous years.

The return from saved plus exported electricity is £7026 over 25 years, just enough to cover the cost of the panels. However, if the cost of inverters, cleaning and insurance is allowed for the return is £3839 over this period. If I increase the retail cost to 15p/kWh this seems enough to cover the upfront costs of the cheaper units presently available, which is the guesstimate I originally used, although I would be surprised if these prove reliable.

Note I've not allowed for price or electricity inflation, risk free return rate, discounted cash flows, reduced carbon and pollution costs, all these are important factors. However, these will be applicable to other forms of sustainable generation.

Martyn1981

Well ...... at least you tried!

Firstly, cleaning doesn't seem worthwhile in the UK, given our rain levels. Also, I'd assume that the systems you've referenced won't be doing any cleaning, to give you the results you are using.

Secondly, insurance, maybe somebody has been charged, but I've yet to hear of anyone. So it seems that the insurance companies don't consider it a significant risk.

Inverter cost, I've often suggested £1k for a replacement at some point, but that's a pessimistic figure, to ensure folk (sitting on the margins) don't jump in if monies are tight. However, inverters cost around £400 to £800. With the most expensive German models suggesting they should last 20 years. The cheaper models offer warranty extensions. Some inverters like my SolarEdge have a standard 12yr warranty, and can be extended to 20 years for £200. So by all means use £1k as a warning, but not as a 10 year average, it's way too high.

You haven't explained all your numbers, but if I work backwards from an average of 10p, and 25 years, you seem to be suggesting 2,800kWh pa and also mention £6k install cost.

I need to remind you again, that if you really want to discuss un-subsidised PV, then you should really be looking to the better sites and prices at this point in time. Like all technology, it will roll out along economic lines first. Hence why I pointed (and kept referring you, with references) to £5k costs, 4kWp, and 1,000kWh/kWp. [I could reference £4.5k installs, and 1,100kWh/kWp generation. But I've kept that extra 20% in reserve, to show I'm talking better, not best.]

cepheus wrote: »

If I increase the retail cost to 15p/kWh this seems enough to cover the upfront costs of the cheaper units presently available, which is the guesstimate I originally used, although I would be surprised if these prove reliable.

I'm not sure I've read that paragraph correctly, but are you still suggesting that the lower quotes and installs are using inferior equipment? If you read the threads, you'll see a mix of kit, but all in line with what was being installed for £10k a few years ago, and £20k 5+ years ago. Some of those quotes are using the more expensive German inverters too. So I'm still struggling to understand why you keep trying to sneak this bit in.

cepheus wrote: »

Note I've not allowed for price or electricity inflation, risk free return rate, discounted cash flows, reduced carbon and pollution costs, all these are important factors. However, these will be applicable to other forms of sustainable generation.

Yep. But you've missed a few points out:-
Demand side generation doesn't require the extra grid re-inforcement costs.
Demand side generation opens up additional investment monies.
Demand side generation involves the public directly, and places giant billboards on the rooves of houses advertising the arrival and integration of renewables, for all to see. Public acceptance of renewables, and the realisation that there is nothing to fear, is very important
Demand side generation helps to educate children, who, let's face it, are far less resistant to new ideas.

Lastly:-

cepheus wrote: »

Another variable is how much is used and exported, I understand a lot of the calculators assume a 50:50 split which I've used here but you can change it if you wish.

I think you are being too generous. I could suggest best suited properties first again, but in this case I'd say 67% export and 33% import. Hence why in my calcs (which admittedly used a £1k inverter replacement after 12 yrs) I suggested a target of 8p/kWh value (import & export earnings), and showed how generation costs as low as 7.3p/kWh could be possible today ....... with all factors still improving each year.

Mart.

Martyn1981

Probably worth pointing this out too, since we are discussing the possible ability of domestic PV to become unsubsidised (and are using 2015 figures) that this discussion started with:

cepheus wrote: »

If you remember, my view is that solar is unlikely to become cost effective, for this country as a whole and we should be concentrating on more cost effective renewables such as wind and conservation. This situation remains the case in high latitudes such as the UK.

which was posted as a result of the CfD auction results, in which on-shore wind succesfully bid for £80/MWh in 2017/18.

Compared to the average market price of £50/MWh, that is actually 60% above un-subsidised*.

*Personally, I don't like comparisons to the £50/MWh figure since that hides externalities such as current nuclear subsidies, CO2 costs, and pollution costs. But that £50/MWh figure also relates to the supply price we all pay. If it was a more 'honest' figure of £80/MWh, then our leccy prices would also go up 3p/kWh, increasing my weighted average 'target' price of 8p to 11p.

I doubt even cepheus could argue against domestic PV being able to generate for 11p/kWh or less.

Mart.

zeupater

cepheus wrote: »

..... Thats reasonably consistent with the few people who have supplied data on here. The average return is around 2.62 Kwh/day/Kw .....

... assume a 50:50 split which I've used here but you can change it if you wish.

The Exported retail price is around 5p/kWh and the domestic price around 15p/kWh ....

.... The return from saved plus exported electricity is £7026 over 25 years ....

.... 4% (£6000 of a 150k rebuild) to the average premium of £250 which is £10 per annum ....

Hi

Using 2.62*365*4= 3825kWh/year for a 4kWp system and a 50:50 split between 15p & 5p is 10p average .... Therefore £7026 is undervalued by £2536.50 ((3825*.1*25)-7026) ... I have absolutely no idea why a high(ish) price for a 4kWp system would be used in combination with a system generating 2810kWh/year((7026/25)/.1), which suggests a 2.94kWp((2810/3825)*4) system's generation ...

Cleaning, well who does that?. I think that everyone understands that the panels could do better if clean, but would it ever justify the cost of a window-cleaner ?? ... anyway, are you sure that the 0.8% shouldn't be a 'one off' and shouldn't be compounded ?? .... I'd be much happier with using the degradation rate if it fell within the industry guidelines .... anyway, if the argument is based on not using industry data because it's from a 'vested interest' source (although verified) then why assume that a window cleaner somewhere up north would know better and not also have a vested interest to overestimate the value of cleaning ?? .... the best cleaning my panels have had is snow & slush sliding off them ...

... the difference between a £5k & £6k install cost not only makes a difference to the return, but also the insurance according to the above ....

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Using 2.62*365*4= 3825kWh/year for a 4kWp system and a 50:50 split between 15p & 5p is 10p average .... Therefore £7026 is undervalued by £2536.50 ((3825*.1*25)-7026) ... I have absolutely no idea why a high(ish) price for a 4kWp system would be used in combination with a system generating 2810kWh/year((7026/25)/.1), which suggests a 2.94kWp((2810/3825)*4) system's generation ...

HTH
Z

Yep, I got the same 2,810kWh. So he appears to have increased the cost by 20%, decreased generation by 26%, charged £2,500 for replacement inverters, added £437 for cleaning, and another £250 for insurance ....... before concluding that the earnings don't cover costs?

[Edit: Whilst still rather extreme, shouldn't the replacement inverter costs be £1,500 not £2,500? £1k for replacement at yr10 to yr20, and half the cost of replacement at yr20 to yr25.

Something else has now occurred to me. If we use cepheus' figures, with the £1,500 inverter costs (£6k + £1.5k + £437 (cleaning) + £250 (ins)) the total is £8,187.50. Then divide that by his generation figure of 25 x 3825kWh (2.62*365*4) = 8.56p/kWh. A figure not far off my 7.3p and within my range of 7p to 9p, whilst being absolutely nowhere near his 15p figure.

I accept that I haven't included degradation, but inflation should push up the value part faster than degradation lowers the generation part. M.]

I'm not sure the 5 month wait for this information was worth it! :sad:

Mart.