Are you a risky investor? What is your take on negative funds?

Broken_Biscuits

TH1878 wrote: »

This obviously doesn't apply to every single situation and I've not done any research into it but.....

I reckon that if you select the worst performing asset class over the last two years, it will be one of the best performing asset classes in the next two years, more often than not.

If this sort of thing interests you, do some research on CAPE.

if you followed CAPE blindly you would be heavily invested in both Russia and Greece. This could be the best or worst thing you could ever do. No one can predict the future!

a safer bet would be brazil. Most funds connected to Latin america/brazil are at negative growth (as per the thread theme) but are probably a better long bet. China gets its iron ore from brazil and so has recently committed to a significant investment in brazils roads and infrastructure which should help brazil kick on from their recent slump.

so, yes, im looking at funds with negative growth.

TH1878

Broken_Biscuits wrote: »

If this sort of thing interests you, do some research on CAPE.

if you followed CAPE blindly you would be heavily invested in both Russia and Greece. This could be the best or worst thing you could ever do. No one can predict the future!

a safer bet would be brazil. Most funds connected to Latin america/brazil are at negative growth (as per the thread theme) but are probably a better long bet. China gets its iron ore from brazil and so has recently committed to a significant investment in brazils roads and infrastructure which should help brazil kick on from their recent slump.

so, yes, im looking at funds with negative growth.

Will look at it - for myself rather than clients.

On Russia, I put £10k into the JPM Russian investment trust on 15th December 2014 because it seemed like too good an opportunity to pass up. Sold on 1st April for a £4k gain so, like you, a negative return wouldn't scare me; I'd be more likely to see it as a positive in the long run.

Reaper

On the subject of CAPE and contrarian investing I am trying a new European ETF. It tracks the Shiller Barclays CAPE Europe Sector Value index and the idea is it invests in whichever European sectors have a CAPE suggesting they might be undervalued, in the hope they will return to "normal" in the long term.

It is too recent to judge if it will be a success or not but I thought it an interesting idea.

Here is an Investors Chronicle article on it. You might need to do the free signup to see it, I'm not sure:
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2015/02/06/tips-and-ideas/market-tactics/the-cape-factor-WIUbSkdnHLsZBzxiMIQr2M/article.html

Broken_Biscuits

TH1878 wrote: »

Will look at it - for myself rather than clients.

On Russia, I put £10k into the JPM Russian investment trust on 15th December 2014 because it seemed like too good an opportunity to pass up. Sold on 1st April for a £4k gain so, like you, a negative return wouldn't scare me; I'd be more likely to see it as a positive in the long run.

about 6 weeks ago I bought into a Russia fund- seems to be about the time you sold up. Its up around 15%... Unfortunately i only put in £500.

with the daily negative press articles about Russia, i wouldn't be brave enough to put 10k in. But then who knows. Maybe your 10k as a percentage of your wealth is the same as me putting in £500!!

without paying for it, CAPE information is scarce.
heres a 3 month old site with dated info

http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation?SortBy=Shiller_PE

TH1878

Broken_Biscuits wrote: »

about 6 weeks ago I bought into a Russia fund- seems to be about the time you sold up. Its up around 15%... Unfortunately i only put in £500.

with the daily negative press articles about Russia, i wouldn't be brave enough to put 10k in. But then who knows. Maybe your 10k as a percentage of your wealth is the same as me putting in £500!!

It was money in my SIPP which I can't touch for another 23 years anyway so I didn't see it as being that much of a risk. When a market falls as much as the Russian one did, it's just too good an opportunity to let pass by.

Similarly with Tesco; they buried all of their bad news on one particular day when they announced record losses. I bought shares at around £2.20 and expecting them to start rising by the end of the year. However, I'm willing to hold on to them for 5-10 years if necessary.