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Brexit
Comments
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Generali,
Remember also that the current 2-1 polls have not always been that way if you go back a year or two where the out vote has been shown to be in the 47/48 region at times.
Ashcroft did a large poll last year which was split 41-41.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/LORD-ASHCROFT-EUROPE-ON-TRIAL.pdfFew people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Generali,
Remember also that the current 2-1 polls have not always been that way if you go back a year or two where the out vote has been shown to be in the 47/48 region at times.
Ashcroft did a large poll last year which was split 41-41.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/LORD-ASHCROFT-EUROPE-ON-TRIAL.pdf
Note the sample size of Lord Ashcroft's poll. 80 people.
Yes, polls have fluctuated pretty dramatically but without going back and seeing what and when it was asked it's hard to see whether people are flip-flopping or there's some 'comfort polling' going on.0 -
The details of how the vote will be structured is intetesting.
Will Wales and Scotland and Northern Ireland get separate votes?
Could a compulsory vote be imposed? With 3 options Yes, No, Don't Know.
Could a threshold be set for turn out to validate the vote?
Can all statistics used in the campaigns be independently verified?
With UKIP exposing the realities of what the EU is and what it is heading towards it will be an interesting couple of years.
For me the yes and no campaigns will not likely be able to agree on what the definition of the EU is.... so how can we decide?!Peace.0 -
TickersPlaysPop wrote: »For me the yes and no campaigns will not likely be able to agree on what the definition of the EU is.... so how can we decide?!
The EU is chugging along on a set route. People will have plenty of time to make their own informed decisions.0 -
TickersPlaysPop wrote: »
Will Wales and Scotland and Northern Ireland get separate votes?
No. The UK is the member.TickersPlaysPop wrote: »Could a compulsory vote be imposed?
How would you suggest that is enforced, and what penalties ?
What would you suggest ?TickersPlaysPop wrote: »Could a threshold be set for turn out to validate the vote?TickersPlaysPop wrote: »Can all statistics used in the campaigns be independently verified?
No.
Who is independent anyway ?'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
Note the sample size of Lord Ashcroft's poll. 80 people.
Yes, polls have fluctuated pretty dramatically but without going back and seeing what and when it was asked it's hard to see whether people are flip-flopping or there's some 'comfort polling' going on.
80 people took part in a QUALITATIVE conference to validate the methodology. But the actual poll was of 20000 peopleThe research documented here, including a poll of more than 20,000 people, shows Britain is split down the middle. Four in ten want Britain to stay in the EU – the same number as want to leave. One in five say they don’t know.
All I am saying is that while the polls look favourable now, this could change over a year from now. People forget that it is relatively recent that the polls have moved to strong support for staying in. The link below shows YouGov tracking of opinion during the past few years and for long periods the polls have showed a much narrower difference.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/11/how-people-would-vote-eu-referendum/
I agree that the public will be deluged by pro-EU messages whatever is negotiated.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Before this election I had no doubts that we would stay in Europe. Unfortunately English working people seem to be returning to a pattern of voting pretty comprehensively against their own self interests.0
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ruggedtoast wrote: »Before this election I had no doubts that we would stay in Europe. Unfortunately English working people seem to be returning to a pattern of voting pretty comprehensively against their own self interests.
Unfortunately if you trust the public you have to accept that a small % have views based on facts and evidence and a large % cannot understand the issues or will not bother to understand them.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0
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