Why the Tories Won

gadgetmind

They also have the problem that they call people at random and those in work will be harder to catch. In crude terms, those in work like lower taxes, those not (and I include pensioners!) want higher benefits, The pollsters try to apply corrections but I'd question how effective they are.

antrobus

Jon_B wrote: »

Regarding the polls. Simplistically, is it wrong to assume that the reason the polls were consistently so tight is that typical left-leaner voters are more proactive within politics and more likely to attract the pollsters as opposed to those who keep their thoughts to themselves and vote for conservatism (small "c" intended) at the ballot box?

gadgetmind wrote: »

They also have the problem that they call people at random and those in work will be harder to catch. In crude terms, those in work like lower taxes, those not (and I include pensioners!) want higher benefits, The pollsters try to apply corrections but I'd question how effective they are.

All that is all very well. But couldn't you have made those same arguments in 2010? Why is it only now in 2015, that the polls are wrong? What has changed?

LydiaJ

onlyroz wrote: »

But if they lied in the first poll why did they tell the truth in the exit poll?

Other posters have mentioned the "people changing their minds" issue and the "some people not getting to the polling station and actually voting" issue. There's also the "some people declining to answer opinion polls" thing, which might not apply in the same way to an anonymous exit poll.

onlyroz

LydiaJ wrote: »

Other posters have mentioned the "people changing their minds" issue and the "some people not getting to the polling station and actually voting" issue. There's also the "some people declining to answer opinion polls" thing, which might not apply in the same way to an anonymous exit poll.

But why isn't there a precedent for exit polls being so different to pre-election polls?

gadgetmind

antrobus wrote: »

All that is all very well. But couldn't you have made those same arguments in 2010? Why is it only now in 2015, that the polls are wrong? What has changed?

Lots more people in work so you're having to extrapolate the views of a whole load of workers from the few you manage to contact?

chewmylegoff

zagfles wrote: »

Twickenham wasn't typical. In loads of SW seats the Tory vote dropped yet they took the seat off the LibDems. Overall the Tory vote only increased 0.8%. The LD vote dropped 15.2%.

The idea that significant numbers switched from the LDs to the Tories is ridiculous.

It may sound ridiculous to you but if you look at the results in individual constituencies that seems to be what happened. There are also some examples of UKIP polling reasonably well in former LD seats like Berwick and Brecon. Tories gained significantly in those seats as well, presumably what really happened is LD lost votes to Tory and Tory to UKIP.

Lib Dems had a wide and varied support base and not all of them were "anti Tory" by any means. Tory leaning LD voters would have been able to see the writing on the wall for the LDs in this election and voted accordingly.

bigheadxx

onlyroz wrote: »

But why isn't there a precedent for exit polls being so different to pre-election polls?

I think it has got to be partly down to the fact that not all registered voters are able to vote in parliamentary elections.
These statistics show that on that date there were 47,383,464 entries on the local government electoral register and 46,107,152 entries on the Parliamentary electoral register There are two different electoral registers, one for Parliamentary elections and one for local government elections. For other elections or referendums, one register or the other is always used. The main difference between the two registers is that citizens of the European Union (EU) who are resident in the UK are eligible to be on the local government register, but not the Parliamentary one

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/total_number_of_registered_voter

So there are over one million registered voters who cannot vote in a general election, about 2.5% of the total. It is possible that they were polled before the election, are pro-Labour and of course would not show up in an exit poll.

bigheadxx

There is a big deal being made about the exit poll but in 2010 they did not release an exit poll when polls closes.

gadgetmind

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Lib Dems had a wide and varied support base and not all of them were "anti Tory"

Agreed, 100%, and I voted LD myself despite finding the conservative's policies (mostly!) more palatable. However, LD were just ahead of Labour locally, and the conservatives miles behind, so keeping Labour out by hook or by crook was order of the day.

Jon_B_2

gadgetmind wrote: »

Agreed, 100%, and I voted LD myself despite finding the conservative's policies (mostly!) more palatable. However, LD were just ahead of Labour locally, and the conservatives miles behind, so keeping Labour out by hook or by crook was order of the day.

+1, I voted LD in 2010 and Conservative this year to keep Labour out.