Fed uo with BBC/Met Office

Honey_Bear

Have you tried putting in your postcode? That gave me a choice of five different locations, all of which are within 1.7 miles.

Azari

I heard, many years ago, that the most accurate weather forecast is: 'Tomorrows weather will be the same as today's' for any given location.

I find that to be pretty much the case. (i.e. it's more accurate than the forecast, not that it's 100% accurate.) If you use that, generally, but use the given forecast when something very definite is happening (e.g. vast banks of cloud moving in or out of the region), you'll get the best result.

Of course, if the forecasters would move from an 'it is/isn't going to ...' model to a 'there is an x% chance of ...', not only would the forecasts be a lot more useful, but I suspect their quantitative accuracy would rocket.

Moto2

We have a maritime climate that can change without much warning at all. We don't live in the middle of a big land mass

Learn to accept it and live with it.

Azari

thriftymanc wrote: »

But then wouldn't the weather stay the same forever...?!

No, of course not.

We are talking about what is statistically likely to be the most accurate forecast.

It seems that when they checked a variety of different methods, from meteorologists with hundreds of millions of pounds worth of super-computer via animal entrails to seaweed, the method that was correct most of the time was: "Today's weather will be the same as yesterday'".

It was, however, some years ago that I read of this study so things may have changed, but I find that unless the weather is in, or is about to enter, a very stable phase, the forecast for sun/cloud/rain is just about useless. The forecast for temperature and wind is a lot more likely to be correct - as you would imagine.

The-Truth

Azari wrote: »

I heard, many years ago, that the most accurate weather forecast is: 'Tomorrows weather will be the same as today's' for any given location.

That experiment was done in the States where with most of the country in summer has sunshine day in, day out with the odd thunderstorm. That theory however would simply not work in the UK.

sgun

Weatherbadger are good and also XC weather forecasts. I have found them very accurate for North East England/Scotland but also for Germany, Poland, Hungary area. They have been consistently accurate over the last 6 or so years so maybe just try a different forecast. Their "longer" range is also pretty good (up to 10 days).

I find generally if I look at the BBC forecast for my area I can plan for the exact opposite. If they predict sun it will be rainy and I can't count the number of times recently I have looked out to clear blue skies and been told by the BBC that we have low cloud and heavy rain. As they are consistently wrong I can still use them as a forecast

Azari

The-Truth wrote: »

That experiment was done in the States where with most of the country in summer has sunshine day in, day out with the odd thunderstorm. That theory however would simply not work in the UK.

Actually, you have that the wrong way around.

It's much easier for meteorologists to predict stable weather of the type you describe in the US.

It's when they try and predict unstable weather that things go awry.

peter_the_piper

Shame on the BBC they were a quarter of an hour late with the rain forecast yesterday, give them the sack.

barbiedoll

I don't find the Met office/BBC weather reports to be particularly inaccurate, their timings can be a little off, but then again I understand that it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where it is going to rain and at what time. I work 7 miles away from home and I have noticed that while it may have rained heavily at my workplace, it will be completely dry at home and the rain may not start until I've been indoors for half an hour.

I can live with the fact that no-one on the telly can tell me that it's going to rain within the next half an hour, like most Brits, I have my own prediction methods (putting the washing out or washing the car practically guarantees rain within minutes!)

But what does annoy me is the meandering warnings and descriptions of the expected weather...you know, the "It may feel a little chilly so do take a cardigan if you're taking the dog for a walk" type of thing. A 1 minute weather bulletin is expanded into a general advice programme for anyone who is daring to venture outdoors, pollen count, UV warnings and all.

All I want is hot or cold, with approximate temperatures, and rain/snow or not. I don't need someone to tell me to take an umbrella out with me. :mad:

Azari

barbiedoll wrote: »

But what does annoy me is the meandering warnings and descriptions of the expected weather...you know, the "It may feel a little chilly so do take a cardigan if you're taking the dog for a walk" type of thing. A 1 minute weather bulletin is expanded into a general advice programme for anyone who is daring to venture outdoors, pollen count, UV warnings and all.

All I want is hot or cold, with approximate temperatures, and rain/snow or not. I don't need someone to tell me to take an umbrella out with me. :mad:

I suspect that's because with some weather patterns, there is much less to say (for example, if the weather is the same across the whole country), but they have a fixed time slot to fill, so they have to pad it out.