London is a joke (moan)

AdrianC

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

..and the shortage of housing comes from....pardon me for mentioning it....but too many people after it because there are too many people in Britain...

Small problem with that theory... there are hundreds of thousands of houses not selling, or even sitting empty, just about all over the UK.

Property shortages are confined to relatively small areas, primarily in the SE.

fitnessguy1

would it not be easier to buy in essex and commute? i live in essex myself and it has really close rail links to london, so visiting london is easy from essex. i know loads of people that do this. i understand it can be a nuisance, but if london is where the work is what can you do? is there any way you can get the same work here in essex? it isn't like you're all the way up north now, is it?

Jhoney_2

Digsby wrote: »

Incidentally, incidentally, the LR HPI report for March is out. England and Wales is -0.8% from February as expected. London is +0.2%, against my prediction of -1.5%. Then again, I only monitor Streatham and Kensington - Lambeth was static and Kensington and Chelsea was -1.6%, so I got it right for those areas, but I guess they just aren't representative of London as a whole. Of all the regions in England and Wales, only London and the South East were positive.

And yet

Top 10 suburban areas in England and Wales
Monthly rise Feb/Mar 2015 Annual rise March 14/15 Bracknell Forest, Berkshire -0.4% 13.6% Hertfordshire 0.7% 13.6% Reading 1% 13.5% Slough 1% 12.7% Milton Keynes 1.2% 12.5% Medway, Kent 1.2% 12% Southend, Essex 1.3% 12% Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales -0.3% 11.2% Luton 0.5% 10.6% Trafford, Manchester 0.4% 9.2% source: Land Registry

I hope i'm allowed to post that up, else can someone please get it taken off.

Here is the link for the above http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32529331

You mention K&C, but -1.6 down from 15/20/30% p.a (with most homes at a cost of multiple millions) is still unaffordable for most of the population. I have first hand examples but no point going over it again.

or see

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32510370



The prices are still rising in most areas south of the UK border, some dips were month on month, but the annual rise beside them, puts it into perspective. I am no analyst, but it's looking upward and indeed outward - even if the rises are moderate or static at the moment.

AubreyMac

I understand your frustration, OP. I'm a born and bred londoner.

I feel resentful at prices and the lack of good housing options here.

I lived at home (with parents) for a long time until I can affort to buy. I refuse to rent as it's dead money (and loads of it) and also my friends who rent tend to move around every 12-18 months as they get fed up with landlords or housemates which sounds too stressful for me, more stressful than putting up with my parents.

I earn very little too (I do basic admin work for local govt). But I've just brought my first flat and I'm in my 30s.

It is not ideal as it is tiny and needs updating. It's an ex council flat and most of my neighbours are on benefits. It is disheartening but I'm trying to stay focussed on the bigger picture and once all works are complete (it will take a couple of years to get everything as I want it as I slowly start saving again) it should be good. I'm also encouraged by the fact that as the flat is in London, though not a desireable area, I'm not ever likely to make a loss although you can never say never.

Digsby

Jhoney wrote: »

And yet

Top 10 suburban areas in England and Wales
Monthly rise Feb/Mar 2015 Annual rise March 14/15 Bracknell Forest, Berkshire -0.4% 13.6% Hertfordshire 0.7% 13.6% Reading 1% 13.5% Slough 1% 12.7% Milton Keynes 1.2% 12.5% Medway, Kent 1.2% 12% Southend, Essex 1.3% 12% Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales -0.3% 11.2% Luton 0.5% 10.6% Trafford, Manchester 0.4% 9.2% source: Land Registry

He - I had to laugh when I saw Merthyr Tydfil in the top 10. It's down on the month by -0.3%. I'd say that looks downward, but you're saying that if I look at the annual figure and that puts it into perspective.

OK - wow, a whopping 11.2%!!!!

Hang on... Merthyr Tydil has consistently been one of the worst performing parts of the UK, and suddenly this month it's one of the best? Even though prices were cheaper than the month before?

What was the annual rise last month.... 0%. So now were saying that prices in Feb 2015 were the same as prices in Feb 2014, but in March 2015, they fell by 0.3% and became 11.2% more expensive than March 2014.

How can that be? Well, in Feb 2014, prices fell by 5% in one month. And in March 2014, prices fell by 10% in one month.

So the reason for the whopping 11.2% price increase over the year - is because prices *haven't* fallen by 14.5% in two months this year. Puts a rather different perspective on it.

Jhoney wrote: »

I am no analyst,

No, you're not.

Sorry... couldn't resist - please take it as intended! :A

Jhoney_2

Digsby wrote: »

He - I had to laugh when I saw Merthyr Tydfil in the top 10. It's down on the month by -0.3%. I'd say that looks downward, but you're saying that if I look at the annual figure and that puts it into perspective.

OK - wow, a whopping 11.2%!!!!

Hang on... Merthyr Tydil has consistently been one of the worst performing parts of the UK, and suddenly this month it's one of the best? Even though prices were cheaper than the month before?

What was the annual rise last month.... 0%. So now were saying that prices in Feb 2015 were the same as prices in Feb 2014, but in March 2015, they fell by 0.3% and became 11.2% more expensive than March 2014.

How can that be? Well, in Feb 2014, prices fell by 5% in one month. And in March 2014, prices fell by 10% in one month.

So the reason for the whopping 11.2% price increase over the year - is because prices *haven't* fallen by 14.5% in two months this year. Puts a rather different perspective on it.



No, you're not.

Sorry... couldn't resist - please take it as intended! :A

I didn't attempt to (nor could I!), but this is from your own data source - as provided to the news site.

My point being, whilst you assess/analyse the monthly changes - the annual change for Streatham and much of the country is UP...the intersections are less and getting farther away from you as a buyer.

Newham for example, month growth 0.1 annual c20% - it's a poor borough by all accounts, so that jump is probably because it's a more affordable one and the market for buyers are growing.

H&F 0%monthly growth yet annually 14%. Ex council 3/4 bed,estate 2014= 600k on a road 850k Q1 2013 (someone I know was looking at the time). I don't think the owner is going to mind much (indeed probably unaware) and will laugh if you offered that 2015 - if you dot it past the EA.

If your method works for you, I am glad you are sharing it amongst those in a similar situation and good luck to you,:)

Pixie5740

I'm curious to know what these jobs are that people are drawn to London to do. Are these kinds of jobs and professions not available outside of London?

AubreyMac

Pixie5740 wrote: »

I'm curious to know what these jobs are that people are drawn to London to do. Are these kinds of jobs and professions not available outside of London?

From what I hear (through friends from out of London), there's just more opportunities & available jobs here.

One of my friends is from a remote part near Newcastle, her parents are farmers and live quite remotely (nearest neighbour 5 miles away). She came to London to study & stayed when she got a simple admin job after. Even a admin job is hard to get where she's from especially given the fact she can't drive (for medical reasons) and transport there is pretty much non existent.

Of course not everyone out of London is from such a different culture to her though.

Digsby

Jhoney wrote: »

My point being, whilst you assess/analyse the monthly changes - the annual change for Streatham and much of the country is UP...the intersections are less and getting farther away from you as a buyer.

I don't just analyse the monthly changes, I analyse all of the data. My point being, if you go look beyond the headlines, beyond the asking prices, you'll see a different picture that which some people would seem to rather keep veiled.

I'm sure plenty of the good people of Merthyr also had a chuckle this morning when they saw themselves in the top 10 best performing areas in the country. They'll know what's really happening. Sometimes the figures lie, if you don't interpret them properly.

The annual change in Streatham (Lambeth rather), is positive, yes, but it is decreasing, fast.

If you had bought in Lambeth in March, then you'd have paid, on average, 15.2% more than you would have in March 2014. Now that's a lot, I agree.

But if you had bought in February, then you'd have paid, on average, 19.6% more than you would have in February 2014. In January, it was 20.9%, in December it was 23.4%, in November it was 25.6%. In fact, you'd have to all the way back to November 2013 before the annual rise was as little as 15.2%.

Now there's been no point, in that time, when the annual % change was negative, so property in Lambeth is up every year. But the annual % change hasn't fallen between months since November 2013 (again), and that was only a fall of 0.5%.

It hasn't fallen as precipitously and for as long as it has for the last 8 months, since 2010, when the housing market was extremely fragile - I mean really, really on the brink.

There were 300 sales in January in Lambeth (Feb/March figures are not complete yet). There hasn't been a single month where as few sales have been made since February 2013.

So whilst you read the BBC headlines, and see nothing but up, up, up. I dig deeper and get to the truth of the matter - that the market all round the country, excepting perhaps the SE (though I haven't looked into it) is weakening, severely.

It hasn't entered negative territory annually yet, but it has just entered monthly negative territory, and is on trend for negative annual figures within months. Unless something drastic changes, we're looking at a possible bust here.

By the way, nothing is getting farther away from me as a buyer - my savings are increasing at a faster rate than house prices are increasing in my area.

AdrianC

Jhoney wrote: »

And yet

Top 10 suburban areas in England and Wales
Monthly rise Feb/Mar 2015 Annual rise March 14/15 Bracknell Forest, Berkshire -0.4% 13.6% Hertfordshire 0.7% 13.6% Reading 1% 13.5% Slough 1% 12.7% Milton Keynes 1.2% 12.5% Medway, Kent 1.2% 12% Southend, Essex 1.3% 12% Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales -0.3% 11.2% Luton 0.5% 10.6% Trafford, Manchester 0.4% 9.2% source: Land Registry

Eight of the ten are London commuter belt.
One is one of the longest-term most depressed and cheapest areas of the country.
I don't really know Trafford, other than it being commuter belt for probably the second city of the country... Wealthier end of Manc?