House Value change from 2010 to now

richtung

Hi Guys,

The wife and i went to view a property and quite like it. Its a 4 bed detached (plus another bed room on ground floor) in south Manchester.
It came on the market on 20/02/15 at £330k.
After getting back from the viewing, I did some digging and found 2 previous adverts from 2009 and 2010. Using Property Bee, I found the following:

27/10/09 - first listed with asking price of £295k
21/11/09 - Under Offer
At some point the deal fell through and was withdrawn from sale

1/3/2010 - listed at £295k
18/3/2010 - reduced to £285k
15/6/2010 - still listed for sale
Withdrawn from sale (not sure when)

20/2/2015 - listed at £330k with the same EA as the previous 2 occasions.
14/4/15 - still on for sale

After the viewing, we couldn't detect an obvious reason for not selling (our recent experiences have taught us quite quickly why a property isnt selling). Its in a good, quiet area, good transport links, is of a decent size and doesn't need any obvious works apart from a lick of paint. The house pretty much suits our future family needs.

Im not experienced enough to decide on what to offer (if the second viewing goes ok). based on the last asking price of £285k five years ago, i entered this into the nationwide and Halifax price index calculators and this is what came back:

Nationwide: £293k
Halifax : £314 (2014 Q4)

Obviously the house didnt even sell at the previous asking price in 2010 so the above valuations are academic. The house hasn't had any improvements made since 2010 so an offer of £285k would be my starting point I guess.

Any ideas?

Thanks

Rich

phatbear

it really depends how much you want the house.

we looked at a house on saturday which was most recently purchased in Feb 2015 for £215000 and now in April 2015 it was on the market for offer between £235000 and £245000 and it "sold" with in 72 hours for £245000 so an increase of £30000 and they had done nowt to the property in that time.

bottom line is a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

so go in low but dont be suprised if you get knocked back and it may also put a bad taste in the vendors/estate agents mouth so if it gets to a stage where its you versus another seller then you may not end up with the property

Hoploz

No idea about Manchester myself but round here prices have rocketed since then.

The calculator you found suggested 314 for q4 2014 so as we're now in the busiest season of 2015 I'd say the price is pretty fair. I don't know why you think it'd be worth what it was 4 or 5 years ago. It went under offer so must have been in the ball park originally.

Mallotum_X

General ranges based on average regional prices give you a general range but are meaningless in reality. You need to find similar homes in the local area and see what they are selling for.

Has any work been done in the last 5 years or so?

A vendor with an asking price of 330 is almost certainly going to think you are a time waster offering 285.

kinger101

It's difficult to know. The real questions are;

(a) what is the house worth to you;
(b) is there any danger of a loss (above costs) if you need to sell within say the next three years;
(c) what are the consequences if your banks says it's overvalued. Does it kill the deal? Or are you prepared and able to make up the shortfall

Indices are not particular helpful when you get down to the 1/4 mile range. You'll have to look for what comparable houses in the same or very close streets have sold for recently, rather than what this one didn't sell for, or sold for a long time ago.

Based on what you've put though, it looks like the vendors are perennial time wasters who don't consider realistic offers. My next step would be sounding out the estate agent. My experience with overpriced houses is the EA practically beg you to put in a low offer to lower the vendor's expectations (which the EA in the first place artificially raised). Putting a low (i.e., reasonable to you), open-ended offer on the table is always a possibility.

G_M

You're wasting your time looking at historic prices.

The only prices that matter are the current ones. Look at similar, local properties and compare recent sale prices (not advertised prices, sale prices.

Factor in the extent to which you've falen in love with a property (or not), and factor in what you can afford.

Make offer.

rosie383

The others are all correct. In our area, houses are selling within days for 30% more than they sometimes sold for within even 8 months with sometimes nothing or only superficial work done.
I sometimes look with interest at sold prices from the past few years in a street I've been viewing a house in, but it is irrelevant to what is happening now. It's more a case of seeing that the area is improving and thus being reflected in prices IYSWIM.

richtung

Thank you all who have responded to this thread - some very useful advice given

I can only speculate on the value in 2009 and 2010 but i know it failed to sell for £285k. Since then, there's been no works done on the house.
Its been on for 2 months (since Feb) and still not sold. In the area, decent 4/5 bed houses are selling at near or full asking price within a couple of weeks.
With this in mind, i can only conclude that the asking price has been a little optimistic - otherwise it would have sold, right?

Im wondering whether to ask the EA out right why the deal fell through in 2009 and then failed to sell after a price reduction in 2010. On the other hand, i doubt the EA will disclose anything to jeopardise any current potential deal (its the same EA for 2009, 2010 and now)

From all the viewings we have done in the area (close to 10 now!), I "feel" a price of between £295k-£300k is about right.
'Im going to take a look at recent sales in the area for similar houses.
Thanks
Rich

Hoploz

There are a multitude of reasons why houses don't proceed to a completed sale. One of these is that nobody wanted it, but there are many others. It did go under offer and the other time it didn't. At least this is what you believe. We don't know whether that is correct or not. A friend of mine had her house on and off the market for a couple of years. They had offers and people always wanted it each time, but they just couldn't find what they wanted to buy so they had to keep pulling it off while they searched. They did move in the end. There are many other reasons. Buyers fail to get finance, sellers fail to find, problems with surveys that scare people off, change in family circumstances, eg a house I wanted was taken off the market as an elderly relative had a fall and had to move in with the family, could be a death in the family made them remove it from the market, too much stress going ont o be worrying about moving house.

You are making too many assumptions here, and doing too much digging.

The house I bought 6 months ago was last sold in 2009 for 28% less than I have paid. This was obviously not overpriced as there were loads of viewings and offers and it went to sealed bids in the end, pushing it up even further than the asking price.

A relative of mine just had her house valued. She bought it 18 months ago for 175k and it's now been valued at 240k. Funnily enough also a 28% increase but in a shorter time frame. There may be an allowance for an ambitious valuation figure but it is a big increase nonetheless.

You can bear all you have researched in mind, but ultimately going by the figures you have stated I can't help thinking they are in line.

jbainbridge

You're unlikely to get anything out of the EA. Go for another viewing and ask the vendor direct.

richtung

spoken to the EA earlier on to arrange the second viewing. I asked about the sale that had fallen through and apparently the buyers chain had collapsed and couldn't find a new buyer.

Im in two minds whether to mention to the vendors about the previous deal that had fallen through?

Just doing research on detached houses that were sold in the last 2 years on the same road (or very close). managed to find one that was sold in Sep 2014 for £320k but has a larger kiving area that we are looking at. The other houses are smaller and were sold in the £280k-£290k range.

Rich