Good time to sell funds?

redux

Some years ago I started a pension scheme in Fleming investment trusts, so of course I was keeping a bit more attention on Fleming trusts than other managers.

There was a certain split capital trust, which of course has more volatility in the price of the capital shares, due to gearing.

But these capital shares also had warrants ...

Looking back at history of the warrant price in a 2 or 3 year period, anyone who was a true expert in market timing could have multiplied their holding by 20, sold at the right moment, then gone up 25 times again. 5p 100p 4p 100p.

I did actually think about this when they were back at 4p. But did I get around to asking if the warrants could be bought within the pension scheme? No. Do I regret it? What is the point of even thinking that? Even if I'd bought some, it's highly unlikely I'd have dared swap all the other holdings there, or got the timing right to exit again.

Kendall80

Thanks for your responses - even to the guy that suggests I may cringe when re-reading my post. Odd that a simple question with genuine intentions on a reputable forum should engender such responses. The nature of the internet perhaps?


Back on message - no I cant time the market but I can certainly spot simple trends. If all my funds have ticked down for a few days and there is also further negative global economic news then would I be wrong in assuming the downtrend is likely to continue. With that in mind I did very well out of the December correction and even better out of the October one. Selling some on the downside, buying back in after a few days of the tick up - investing extra money along with it. Those are the only times I have significantly sold any of my holdings. If nothing else surely such volatility could be used to top up existing holdings? Or am I somehow being unreasonable?

BarleyGB

Did you buy and sell in October and December on a whim or armed with knowledge, based on fundamentals.

I'm interested how you think you can spot a trend that is not priced into the market, how you think you can have an edge that funds don't spot.

Chances are you gambled in October and December, the ball landed on red and you got lucky.

BarleyGB

"If all my funds have ticked down for a few days and there is also further negative global economic news then would I be wrong in assuming the downtrend is likely to continue"

Doesn't that contradict you original post, the trends upwards at the moment, by youre rekoning you should hold?

Kendall80

BarleyGB wrote: »

Did you buy and sell in October and December on a whim or armed with knowledge, based on fundamentals.

I'm interested how you think you can spot a trend that is not priced into the market, how you think you can have an edge that funds don't spot.

Chances are you gambled in October and December, the ball landed on red and you got lucky.

No, that isn't correct. I sold after the first 2/3 days of significant downs right across my portfolio followed by further negative global economic news.

EdGasket

Rollinghome wrote: »

Except of course, a lot of people pay others to do exactly that for them - fund managers.

It has been shown many times that a simple index-tracker outperforms actively-managed funds in the long-term.

Kendall80

BarleyGB wrote: »

"If all my funds have ticked down for a few days and there is also further negative global economic news then would I be wrong in assuming the downtrend is likely to continue"

Doesn't that contradict you original post, the trends upwards at the moment, by youre rekoning you should hold?

Not contradictory no. I do see the 2 as completely different situations. Good to be prepared.

Kendall80

EdGasket wrote: »

It has been shown many times that a simple index-tracker outperforms actively-managed funds in the long-term.

Outperforms the 'average' actively managed fund.


There are of course above average fund managers out there.

C-dog

I've only invested for the last two years, and around this time I'm always put as much into the pots as possible at this time. Its always felt the week after the year end the markets drop a little.

This is purely coincidence right....? Course it is.

TheTracker

Kendall80 wrote: »

Outperforms the 'average' actively managed fund.

No. Significantly less than half of active fund managers beat passive equivalents, anywhere from about 20-40% depending on year/market. Indexes track the averagely invested dollar/pound, not the average fund.