If you're EVER going to buy a house, you'd better do it before April - here's why.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

For a sensible person like you and me, it is a disincentive, yes.

But the lure of instant cash is going to appeal to many, no matter how tax inefficient their decisions are.

Research has shown many don't even have the slightest clue about their marginal tax rate.

Funny then, considering your derision of such people that you instantly assume they will become landlords.

The most likely thing to happen? It will be the already wealthy, already in the property market that will use such funds to buy more. Will be the case for any investment they may partake in, whether it be stocks, wine or art.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Good points, but when it`s gone it`s gone, what will be the next move to prop the market, compulsory mortgage enrolment when you join Tesco?

That's not exactly true as people will be reaching retirement age every year.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

That's not exactly true as people will be reaching retirement age every year.

Fair enough, but still a trickle of money every year that won`t be big enough to save the housing market? It is a revenue raising scam by the government more than anything.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Fair enough, but still a trickle of money every year that won`t be big enough to save the housing market? It is a revenue raising scam by the government more than anything.

I don't think it will make much difference but you've been waiting a long time for that crash.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think it will make much difference but you've been waiting a long time for that crash.

I only understood that there had to be a crash (by joining HPC) around 7 years ago, so not that long really, super cheap rent makes the wait reasonably painless.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I only understood that there had to be a crash (by joining HPC) around 7 years ago, so not that long really, super cheap rent makes the wait reasonably painless.

That's your problem believing what you read on HPC

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

That's your problem believing what you read on HPC

Is that the best response you can come up with?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Is that the best response you can come up with?

Well it's accurate, most people look at various sources of information and reach a conclusion from that, reaching a conclusion from one biased web site doesn't seem sensible to me.

lisyloo

but when it`s gone it`s gone, what will be the next move to prop the market

I do get your point about kicking the can down the road but I think it can go on a long time - certainly in terms of the life of an individual.
I was around in 2001 when some people were talking about STR (and some did), that was 14 years ago and still no sign of a proper crash.
I was 33 in 2001 and conssidered myself young and building a career, now I'm 46 and my thoughts have turned to retirement.
Apart from becoming middle-aged that's a very significant time-window for a woman (if I need to spell it out I'm talking fertility window).

What I'm basically saying is that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent (or happily married if you like), so many people would be ill=advised to schedule their lives around the housing market.

The next move? letting elderly people rent their homes when they are in care (I believe that's already going onr gone through), 100 year mortgages, mortgages that can be passed down the generations.
These things are perfectly plausible because they've happened in places like Japan.

but still a trickle of money every year that won`t be big enough to save the housing market?

Probably not on it's own. That doesn't mean they won't put other measures in place. I've already mention the LA change for the elderly in care.

super cheap rent makes the wait reasonably painless.

As long as other things aren't an issue (like the fertility window for most people).
But you do risk NEVER being able to buy.
I think a permanently high plateau is a real possibility if supply remains constrained and population grows which both look likely.

padington

I expect london to become like Monaco, home of the super rich. Capatalisms vast and growing gap between rich and poor will forever show itself in world leading free market cities. Prices will get insane. The only thing that can stop it is rent controls and socialist tax increases, global financial collapse or an act of terrorism that involves something like a nuclear bomb.

The first two may happen after the Election, it's a matter of wait and see. However if you really analyse labours intentions compared to what New York has already got in place, it's not exactly that socialist at all and will only slow down the rapid rises over the medium to long term. The last two are so bad it wouldn't matter where you had your money it wouldn't be good.

The wisest course of action is to plan for many more white swans yet... What's the average wage / house price relationship in Mayfair / muswell hill / Highgate / Hampstead ? They are glimpses of the future for everywhere close to the centre of you ask me.

However do consider the possibility of technological change like self diving cars and hologram technology making vast changes to our working life and productivity levels. Expect whopping great changes to life as we know it over the next 20 years. Expect a world where cities will become much cleaner and easier to navigate but also consider the possibility of talking to anyone in the world like they are in the room with you and how that might change things. Expect a world without bin men, street cleaners, taxi drivers and expect a world where salesmen, doctors and work colleagues in Hong kong appear virtually right in front of you at the click of a button and the ability to clock on from the moment you step into your Google car to the moment you step out of it.

Oh and expect life expectancy for new generations to get completely reconsidered ...