Family Building Society - Windfall Bond - is it fair?

tony2toes

Zanderman wrote: »

So you've been lucky with one random draw and unlucky with another - and you think someone is deceiving you? I'm not sure you understand luck and chance!

You might as well be saying that you have, in effect, diddled other players on NS&I because you've had more than average luck and therefore, by definition, someone else will have had less than average luck.

Before responding and being a smart-ars* , I suggest you Read the other posts about how "ghost" or "unsold" tickets are being entered into the prize draw skewing the "luck" and "chance" elements you speak of, as well as study as their T&Cs, which you defintely need to go through with a fine tooth comb. There is clearly more than just straight up "luck" or "chance" involved here.

[Deleted User]

tony2toes wrote: »

With 'average' luck I have won NOTHING , I repeat , NOTHING AT ALL for nearly 2 years with my Windfall Bond.

If you are not happy, then you can always withdraw your money and put it elsewhere.

I do take your point with regards to the "ghost" or "unsold" tickets you describe, and that could intrigue or confuse people, but the Family Building Society are upfront about it, and their T&Cs do give the full picture.

Zanderman

tony2toes wrote: »

Before responding and being a smart-ars* , I suggest you Read the other posts about how "ghost" or "unsold" tickets are being entered into the prize draw skewing the "luck" and "chance" elements you speak of, as well as study as their T&Cs, which you defintely need to go through with a fine tooth comb. There is clearly more than just straight up "luck" or "chance" involved here.

I did. And my comments still hold.

Reaper

tony2toes wrote: »

1. With 'average' luck I have won NOTHING , I repeat , NOTHING AT ALL for nearly 2 years with my Windfall Bond.

I wouldn't expect you to. They tell you the odds are only 64/1 of winning after taking part in 12 draws. You have only taken part in 24 draws so it would have been very surprising if you had won.

tony2toes wrote: »

2, With the same 'average' luck and similar timeframes , I have won above average monthly prizes with NS&I Premium Bonds, more than the projected figures from MSE's Premium Bond calculator ! (5 x £25 alone for October 2018 , max holdings)

You are not comparing like with like. You have 1 Windfall bond of £10,000 but the max premium bonds of £50,000.

Furthermore you are comparing trivial £25 wins with the minimum £1000 for the Windfall. Naturally it will take longer before a £1000 win pays out than a £25.

Given your limited grasp of probability and your expectation that you ought to be receiving regular returns a standard savings account seems better suited to your requirements. Particularly as the average return on the Windfall Bond is 0.75%, but these days you can get twice that even with an instant access account.

Hoffmonkey

I'm in. Will hope for a win!

G4OJR

If the fun stops..... stop

powdies

As I read this thread it strikes me that some people don't really understand what "chance "means. The 1/64 odds don't mean that you WILL win one in 64 times, they mean that the probability is that you will win that frequently. But you may or may not, since the draw is random.

An example: People have talked about NS&I, and for a test period I put in the entire permissible amount . What did I win? A pitiful £175 p.a. approx. The odds calculator on this site estimates I should have won £500 p.a. with average luck. I don't have average luck: I could enter a raffle with only me in it and still lose! Still, even with the current abysmal interest rates I would have been better off putting the money in a savings account.

I may try a similar test period with the family building society windfall bond. At least, unlike NS&I, it gives some amount of interest while you are failing to win the jackpot. The odds are better than the national lottery and I'd rather have a conceivable chance of winning a small amount of money than an infinitesimal chance of winning an unmanageable sum.

Yvette394

Both myself and my husband held a £10,000 bond each for over a year and nothing. Didn't realise they enter all the bonds each month sold or not making the chances of winning much slimmer in my mind. Done much better with premium bonds!

couriervanman

Yvette394 wrote: »

Both myself and my husband held a £10,000 bond each for over a year and nothing. Didn't realise they enter all the bonds each month sold or not making the chances of winning much slimmer in my mind. Done much better with premium bonds!

Another person doesn't bother reading t&c when opening an account:eek:

LobsterMemory

EDIT: Replying to a long-dead post