Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Generali

zagubov wrote: »

When's the best time to plant a tree? 100 years ago.
When's the second best time? Right now.

If you need an apple today and didn't plant the tree 100 years ago you can plant as many trees as you like today and that still won't give you an apple.

chewmylegoff

zagubov wrote: »

When's the best time to plant a tree? 100 years ago.
When's the second best time? Right now.

It isn't a very good analogy as if Scotland were to start a sovereign wealth fund now it would have to either borrow money to place in the fund or massively slash expenditure because scotland is running a budget deficit which with oil prices as they are is only getting worse.

right now is therefore the worst possible time to start a sovereign wealth fund (unless of course you happen to think that scotland should withdraw funding from the Scottish NHS and Scottish schools and invest it in RBS shares instead?)

zagubov

A happy St Andrews Day to all our readers!

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

goodness me

you are saying that the scots voted on the expectation of a single 5 year term of the UK parliament ?
even I wouldn't have been so disrespectful of the scots' intelligence: but you know them better than I,

The Tories were in power for 18 years the last stint. They're heading for 10, mabye 15 or more this time round.

And yes, asking people to imagine a Conservative government was a prospect reduced the No lead by an instant 9% when it was asked back in 2014. ( 45% Yes was a distant possibility nine months before the referendum ).

What type of swing to “Yes” in the Scottish Independence Referendum might occur with the potential spectre of a Conservative Westminster majority?
In this poll for the Mail on Sunday 02/02/14, our initial referendum voting question shows a large current lead of 20 points for the “No” campaign against independence – 52% to 32% in line with other recent (online) polling.
However, if Scottish people are led to believe that the Conservatives will be in power after 2015, this lead drops, first down to 14 points and then all the way down to just 9 points if Scottish voters expect the Conservatives to be in power for many years – a significant halving of the gap.


Referendum Voting Intention – ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’
Yes – 32%
No – 52%
Undecided – 16%
“No” has lead of 20 points


Now, imagine you knew the Conservative Party was expected to win a majority at the next UK General Election in 2015 and be in power in the UK for the next 15 years. Would this affect how you would vote, or not, in the Scottish independence referendum this year?
NET: Yes – 38%
NET: No – 47%
NET: Undecided – 16%
“No” lead down to 9 points – less than half of what it was in the original question

http://survation.com/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/

Now, imagine you knew the Conservative Party was expected to win a majority at the next UK General Election in 2015 and be in power in the UK for the next 15 years.

That's a reality now. I imagine there will be a few out there having a rethink. And current polling is at 50/50.

Shakethedisease

Shakethedisease wrote: »

So all ok then if oil prices rise again are they ? Fab !!!

Well ?

Hamish ? What if volatile oil prices go back up ? There's a bit of tumbleweed across my screen at the moment where your answer could be...

Independence good to go then I presume ?

Shakethedisease

zagubov wrote: »

A happy St Andrews Day to all our readers!

And to you. Cheers !! :beer:

Generali

zagubov wrote: »

A happy St Andrews Day to all our readers!

Cheers mate, and to you.

elantan

zagubov wrote: »

A happy St Andrews Day to all our readers!

Cheers same to yourself


There's been a few further declarations of people continuing the crusade for indy... that was nice to see :-)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

zagubov wrote: »

When's the best time to plant a tree? 100 years ago.
When's the second best time? Right now.

Generali wrote: »

If you need an apple today and didn't plant the tree 100 years ago you can plant as many trees as you like today and that still won't give you an apple.

chewmylegoff wrote: »

It isn't a very good analogy as if Scotland were to start a sovereign wealth fund now it would have to either borrow money to place in the fund or massively slash expenditure because scotland is running a budget deficit which with oil prices as they are is only getting worse.

right now is therefore the worst possible time to start a sovereign wealth fund (unless of course you happen to think that scotland should withdraw funding from the Scottish NHS and Scottish schools and invest it in RBS shares instead?)

Perhaps zagubov could confirm what money he wants to put in a wealth fund and where he thinks it should come from?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Hamish ? What if volatile oil prices go back up ? There's a bit of tumbleweed across my screen at the moment where your answer could be...

Independence good to go then I presume ?

As has been explained to you many times there are two factors to look at with oil revenues.

1) The gap between the cost of producing oil in the North Sea and the price it sells for and therefore how much tax revenue on profits the government can extract

2) The volume of oil being pumped out at those profitable levels and therefore how much tax revenue the government can extract

Even at $100 a barrel with current production levels, or anything close to them, Scotland would still be suffering a financial black hole to fill from either raising taxes or cutting spending that it has no realistic prospect of doing.

At $50 a barrel the tax take is essentially close to zero.... In fact the UK government has paid out more in allowances and rebates in the last 6 months than it has taken in tax, resulting in a negative revenue position from North Sea oil for the first time in history.

If you could first jump in zag's time machine and go back a few decades to when the UKCS was pumping over 3 times the quantity of oil it is today, and then also raise the price to the sort of record highs we saw a few years ago, I would agree that Scotland's finances would look very different.

But as it stands today I literally have a better chance of winning the lottery than you do of being able to achieve both those things at the same time.