The Trouble With the Falling Oil Price

cells

Generali wrote: »

Nuclear power stations are generally very popular locally as they provide well paid jobs and support a lot of other businesses as a result. I suspect attitudes will change as people get work and cheap energy as a result.

Perhaps the most import function is that nuclear is a lot easier on the balance of trade vs NatGas/Coal. A nation like France or Germany would have to spend somewhere around $25B a year importing NatGas or aroundy $1B a year importing yellowcake to generate the same amount of electricity

Of course that doesn't matter much if you have domestic coal or NatGas...France doesn't which is partly why it went nuclear.

The UK had lots of coal and then lots of NG but that is changing rapidly. We are moving into very little coal production and gas production is falling fast. Its probably now quite import and prudent to replace our old gen2 gas reactors with 20 x APR1000s which would have 60-100 year lives and generate 55% of our electric demand

jjlandlord

cells wrote: »

Everything is possible in movies maybe but in the real world there are very real limits both physical and economic

Who has talked about movies? Are you trying it on?

As said, the main limit we have is that we lack long term vision and a plan.

cells wrote: »

The uk was the world leader in nuclear civil power the world leader in jets the world leader in radar to name but a few

Thank you for proving my point.

I'm not saying that we should not exploit shale gas at all.
But if we find a cheap source of gas or oil, and exploit it full scale, we most likely lose all incentives to move away from fossil fuels, and that will come back to hurt us x10 at some point.

ess0two

cells wrote: »

Just as your post highlights we have moved away from science and technology and fact and in to a world dominated by opinion and feelings.

I don't want a nuclear plant thirty miles away because when I watched a x-men film the villan powered up using a reactor and that can't be good and I feel my opinion is important so no no no.....

Shale tech is very low impact visually smaller than a bungalow post drilling which takes less than 6 weeks for each well. Objectors should simply be ignored, giving them the light to air their ignorance harms everyone in the same way a small number of vocal individuals stop or slow modest housing plans

You still don't address the issues over gas processing / handling,if its that easy I'll opt to have it in my garden.

ess0two

cells wrote: »

Everything is possible in movies maybe but in the real world there are very real limits both physical and economic

?? The movies?? probably best you stick to watching x men.

cells

jjlndlord wrote: »

I'm not saying that we should not exploit shale gas at all.
But if we find a cheap source of gas or oil, and exploit lose all incentives to move away from fossil fuels, and that will come back to hurt us x10 at some point.

Conjecture

There is no evidence to suggest fossil fuel use is an unmanaheab danger now or in the near future. Even if they are a cause of global slow warming its considered a positive for 70 or so years before it becomes a small net negative.

Buty even ignoring that you can just tax the resource to increase its price as is done with oil and gas now.

whatever way you want to try and frame it natural resources like commercial shale oil and gas are a blessing not a curse

cells

ess0two wrote: »

?? The movies?? probably best you stick to watchinin :cool: x men.

You were the one that said anything is possible. That clearly isn't true the real world so my comment of maybe anything is possible in film but not in reality

anyway good luck to you. This is boring me now

Generali

Thank you cells, some fascinating insight there.

I suspect fracking has become like GMOs: something that could do an awful lot of good for the world that is being held back by hysterical lunatics.

Best of all would be to use renewables for everything but that's just not possible at the moment. A good start, I believe in my simple way, would be to replace coal with natural gas.

ess0two

cells wrote: »

You were the one that said anything is possible. That clearly isn't true the real world so my comment of maybe anything is possible in film but not in reality

anyway good luck to you. This is boring me now

Me too also,answer my question about gas processing,not to mention compression.
I work in the industry and see both sides.

Thrugelmir

cells wrote: »

The answer to that is clearly yes since the volume is vast.

Volume doesn't equate to profitability. Totally the reverse. Volume tends to squeeze margins.

cells

Generali wrote: »

Thank you cells, some fascinating insight there.

I suspect fracking has become like GMOs: something that could do an awful lot of good for the world that is being held back by hysterical lunatics.

Best of all would be to use renewables for everything but that's just not possible at the moment. A good start, I believe in my simple way, would be to replace coal with natural gas.

My view is (globally)

There is no need to move away from fossil fuels (inc coal) as there is no real evidence to suggest they are a NET negative worth the cost of curtailing usage. If anything they are perhaps a good slight insurance against what would be a true catastrophe known as the next ice age.

But if you insist there are two pieces of tech which will get us to low fossil needs and they are

computer controlled vehicles which will reduce transport energy needs by some 90% and nuclear power which can produce 100% of a higher utilised grid. Both however are decade long projects perhaps as long as 50 years (can be done in 15 years with a 'war time' type mentality and effort but that is missing so it'll be 50 years) in the interim any protest or objection for local fossil fuels is money and jobs out of ths UK and to Arabia and Russia



the uk is a lucky country as we have a very important commodity for sale and that is trust. Which is why foreign investors (aka bonkers people) buy £100m flats in Hyde park allowing us in return to import £100m worth of oil or coal. I hopey that trust lasts my lifetime as if it dosnty we will become Spain or Greece a second tier first world economy