FTSE Progress in 14/15

jcb94

Hi all,

I am wondering what your predictions are for the FTSE over the coming year. I'm looking for the FTSE to finish 2014 in the 6850-6950 and reach 7100-7300 next year. What are your thoughts?

TrustyOven

jcb94 wrote: »

Hi all,

I am wondering what your predictions are for the FTSE over the coming year. I'm looking for the FTSE to finish 2014 in the 6850-6950 and reach 7100-7300 next year. What are your thoughts?

My thoughts are that you are talking about Market Timing, and that it's foolish.

Maybe relevant reading:
http://monevator.com/weekend-reading-time-in-the-market-matters-not-timing-the-market/

Ryan_Futuristics

Yeah, it is pure chaos where the index will be - it's trying to predict investor sentiment, which is like trying to predict the behaviour of a 5-year-old child (albeit one who watches too much news)

But underlying value is where the market's REALLY at ... That CAPE chart shows the FTSE is already over 7,000 - so while it's trading a bit below, you know it's a fairly safe time to buy (albeit with risk and reward always intertwined)

In a sense you can time your decisions - e.g. it's a good time to buy Europe and Emerging markets at the moment, but a bad time to buy US stocks ... But your decisions may take 5-10-15 years to come to fruition ... Buying cheap is still the MAIN factor in your returns (along with 'time in the market', but certainly ahead of just 'time in the market')

Thrugelmir

Eurozone issues may come to the fore in 2015. Bound to impact the UK's recovery. So rather than focus on indices. I would remain selective in buying companies with the credentials to whether any storm.

BLB53

Those who predict the markets fall into two broad categories -:

1. those who don't know, and

2. those who don't know they don't know.

dunstonh

jcb94 wrote: »

Hi all,

I am wondering what your predictions are for the FTSE over the coming year. I'm looking for the FTSE to finish 2014 in the 6850-6950 and reach 7100-7300 next year. What are your thoughts?

God knows what it will be. Best thing is not to predict. Plus, the UK FTSE100 doesnt actually make up the majority of most peoples investments. So, little point focusing on just one bit.

Ryan_Futuristics

BLB53 wrote: »

Those who predict the markets fall into two broad categories -:

1. those who don't know, and

2. those who don't know they don't know.

If you're trying to predict tomorrow's market - absolutely

But over longer periods (as the day-to-day noise of the markets fades) valuation tends to give you a pretty good idea


The annualized real return over 20 years as a function of the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE)

Thrugelmir

BLB53 wrote: »

Those who predict the markets fall into two broad categories -:

1. those who don't know, and

2. those who don't know they don't know.

3. Those who know more than they actually say.