Losing at Premium Bonds...

Milarky

I too have a single PB bought for me when I was little... It says '1966' so that's 38 years! Nothing here either.

But I shouldn't be surprised given the long odds...

For instance the 'odds' now are about 1 in 24,0000. That's very 'long' in the history of Premium Bonds, so let's quickly assume the average 'odds' over the last 40 years were around 1 in 15,000 instead?

If that were so the chances of winning a prize with a single bond after 40 years (480 draws) is about 3%!

i.e it's 100% x [1 - (14999/15000)⁴⁸⁰] = 3.149%

[which is about '1 in 31']

andyyorks

I feel the allure of premium bonds is the possibility of a life changing win. I have been using the advice on this site for about a year and half and made huge savings as a result. However I still work in the same job and have a similar standard of living etc etc.

I have used SBTs, 0% credit cards etc to put money in ISAs and savings accounts but felt it worth getting £3000 of premium bonds as well. I may give up about £150 of interest but now have the opportunity, however unlikely, of a life changing amount of money risk free.

As said earlier, it depends on your attitude to risk. For me it's worth giving up £150 for the chance of not working!

TrickyTrotter_2

I have £2 worth of Bonds bought in the year I was born - 1958. In 1975 I won £25 but nothing since. >:(

Milarky

So prizes started out smaller than £50? I didn't realise that. Let's say the odds were quite a bit shorter up to 1975 than the later averages then [higher inflation in the 1970s] at  around 12,000 to 1 for a £50 equivalent - so about 6,000 to 1 for a prize half that size - and you had £2 worth

Chances of 1 win in 17 years, therefore, very approx...

100% x [1 - (2999/3000)²⁰⁴] = 6.575%

Say about '1 in 15'

And since then, we have to slightly shorten average odds... but use the factor '0.985' for £1, so about '0.97' for £2 giving about a 3% chance or '1 in 33' of a £50 prize since then [because you start 'counting' from 1975 to the present]

So your 'luck' is somewhere between '1 in 15' and '1 in 33' maybe...?