Anyone wonder why the lowering of oil prices?

AlainCo

about LENR, the current price fall is interpreted by some people (look for Sifferkoll, a trader : ) as a consequence of recent E-cat test report , supported by Elforsk.

Elforsk recently published a second article in their corporate magazine, Elforsk Perspektiv.
Elforsk is the research consortium of Swedish (and around) energy utilities.... compare it to DoE, EPRI, CEA, BARC (NB: all except DoE replicated cold fusion).

You can find this article on their site in swedish, or translated on some sites...
Anyway it is not much more than what the Boss Magnus Olofsson said in this press release on elforsk site or in Nyteknik.se interview

Rossi is no more the boss, but a patent owner and the CSO.
The boss is Tom Darden of Cherokee fund (asset value 2bn$).
The boss is optimistic in latest press release.


about petroldragon story,
1- Rossi's process was real, and there was industrial clients who defended him facing the judge. You should be very cautious with people who support that myth as they probably have a personal agenda
2- this was recognized in courts (3rd court), as he was condemned for tax evasion, and for lack of pollution permits after a new law changed his fuel in waste. Mats Lewan write a short description as an Errata of "An Impossible Invention"
3- from news (Il corriere della serra) this affair was very stange. A witch hunt is clear, and some strange sabotage shows that some people were more interested in increasing the cost of the cleaning than in environment or Petroldragon.
4- the officer of the Guardia di Finanza that closed Petroldragon pleaded guilty for corruption [

Anyway whatever you think of that affair, even differently from justice, the 2 independent test let no doubt of the reality of the device. Currently there is 9/11 conspiracy imagined to deny the result, but the simple fact that someone allow physicist to play alone with a claimed reactor, shows that the inventor, the business owner, that provided it, feel sure it works...

The only moment when it will be admitted, when the groupthink locked cognition will explode, will be when the power plant currently in field test will be open to public, with a happy user... It will take 1-2 years


I have to admit that I'm more interested in EU initiatives, like LENR-Cities I've been at their Kick-off meeting in Neuchatel and they start to build something big.

Expect a big shock when LENR-Cities will name their big industrial partner, and the middle business who are joining.
Anyway my impression is that given the current groupthink, nothing will move, whatever is said... NASA, Shellgamechanger, Boeing, STM, Toyota, Mitsubishi... no name trigger any reaction.

LENR-Invest have a more classical approach, like LENR-cars... I know them less.

Brillouin Corp (a competing LENr startup linked with)recently contacted a finish ex-minister of the green party

They have a startup named Etiam Oil... No Idea what is happening.

anyway given the capacity by physicist and authorities to maintain a dual cognition, T think that Sifferkoll is wrong and that Oil bearish rally is just desperate reaction of Saudi to shales.

I hope I'm wrong, but i have observed that like for Subprime crisis, the capacity to ignore evidence is unlimited.

for those interested I have a list of books: Charles Beaudette "Excess heat", "The Science of LENR" and "The explanation of LENR" by Edmund Storms, "Fire from ice" by mallove, "An Impossible Invention" by mats Lewans... Jed Rothwell and Ed storpos have produced many good article... Storms on the Science, and Rothwell more on the sociology and epistemology.


You can also read the critic books (Taubes, Huizenga,Morrison), but after reading Beaudette, Mallove, Storms, you will know where are the fraud (taubes), the manipulations, the missings and the errors.

More generally if you are interested in Groupthink, consider reading roland Benabou (Princeton)
"Groupthink: Collective delusions in Organizations and Markets."

Synthesis :
Cold fusion is real, E-cat works, but because of intense groupthink you will not see it in mainstream news or in markets volatility until 1-2 years when E-cat power plant in field-test is open to public.

And after that, as Brian Josephson said, pigs will fly before LENR is discussed in Nature or Science journal.

Currently high probability that oil price is not impacted by LENR, protected by intense groupthink. Shales, desire to starve Iran and Russia, economic depression, fear of nuclear or non conventional oil investments, are probably fueling that market reorganizations.

sh0597

I might invest in that start-up, I'm just waiting for the money from the Nigerian royal family to arrive in my account as promised after I gave them my bank details.

facade

On a positive note, if we can get some 3rd World country to produce the nickel cheaply, (and let them worry about labour costs and environmental pollution) we would be producing massive amounts of valuable copper over here without any pollution.
(Apparently, unexpectedly with the same isotopic ratio as naturally occurring copper according to the de-bunkers)
All we need then is some hydro electric/windfarm/solar solution to produce the hydrogen and we are all set.
Kind of makes you wonder why the people behind it aren't multi-billionaires by now, even if they just took hush money to forget about the process......)

AlainCo

sh0597 wrote: »

I might invest in that start-up, I'm just waiting for the money from the Nigerian royal family to arrive in my account as promised after I gave them my bank details.

The good point is that they ask no money.

by the way, you could ask why Tom Darden and Chinese government have signed a partnership for a technology transfer center around Tianjing (you can find it on icebank cn).

You are right that the few LENR startup who ask money to public are not serious. Due diligence is required.

This is what Cherokee fund and Tom Darden did with the first independent test of the E-cat. As it is said on the press release of cherokee about E-cat, not only they waited for the first test result, but they also sent independent experts to cross check themselves.

It is important that the people who only have biased information and did not made their due diligence don't spread false or incomplete information they hearby.
the situation is complex, rich, risky.
The main risk today is very different fromto what people imagine.
First the science is established (read the literature, or make it really read by sincere neutral experts, ie not physicist but chemist - As Jed rothwell reported of hagelstein, all competent scientists who read the literature are convinced).
The theory is absent, which does not prevent the device to work.
E-cat is one of the most easy bet.
Anyway even as LENR is proven science and E-Cat is proven working, there is huge classical business risk.
As the founder of LENR-Cities or Philippe SilberZahn explains well, when an innovator arrive with disruptive innovation which disrupt the existing market (technology disruption is not a problem, and LENR is not really disruptive technologically, but about market structure) the incumbent operators cannot know how to integrate that blackswan.
See the story of steamboat, or travel agencies...
First market niche of a blackswan technology is the non consumer, and the key to transition is not to align strategy with your client.

I expect Industrial Heat to lose in the next years despite a working technology because big players and better organized small players will kill them like Dell killed IBM PC. Or not... this is risk.

Cyberman60

Fracking is just one technology that is reducing demand for oil, especially in the USA, but we are also very close to World recession which is causing a further downturn in demand.

It just shows also how well the Tories/Coalition are doing in getting UK growth and jobs to such high levels. This will also be a further boost to UK growth.

jimjames

My understanding is that the Saudis are trying to keep the price lower to make production by fracking in the USA uneconomic and thus maintain their market share.

Interesting theory and they can probably handle a low price for a while if it helps maintain it higher long term.

Ectophile

If cold fusion actually worked, then they would be producing small electricity generators, and selling them to people who need off-grid electricity. They would sell like hot cakes.

Instead, they are constantly touting for investors, but never actually doing anything more than carefully organised demonstrations.

It's very easy to fake small-scale "free" electricity generators. A quick search on YouTube will reveal loads of them.

DominicH

jimjames wrote: »

My understanding is that the Saudis are trying to keep the price lower to make production by fracking in the USA uneconomic and thus maintain their market share.

Interesting theory and they can probably handle a low price for a while if it helps maintain it higher long term.

The US is happy enough to see low oil prices, because although they are about equal with Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production, they do not have to export much of it. Russia does, and so a low oil price undermines Putin (some say if it dropped much further he would be in serious trouble). The Saudis are aligned with the US, generally, and are by far the biggest producer in OPEC. They can, and sometimes do, crack the whip over troublesome OPEC partners by upping production and thereby making the price fall. Not sure they have such hold over the US.

Nebulous2

Bollotom wrote: »

Long ago (Not in a galaxy far away) a bloke designed a carburettor that was fed from the fuel tank and another tank of water. The idea being that a reduced amount of fuel would be allowed into the combustion chamber and an atomised squirt of water would be fired in at the same time. :cool:

water injection was occasionally used in cars to improve power output. I remember a water-injected fiat uno in the 80s which outperformed most hot hatches. I doubt if it lasted as long though!

There are lots of theories around about the reasons for the current oil price drop. There will be winners and losers, but I think we're seeing a short-term drop.

After the drop shakes out some of the oil-producing countries, and perhaps more importantly for the oil companies, lets them negotiate lower prices with their contractors normal service will be resumed.

Nilrem

Actually another potential reason for the low oil price (at least partly), could be ISIS.
At the moment they're making about £100 million a month from memory from the sales of oil, so if the other Arab oil producing nations wanted to hurt their ability to fund their war (and in the process help protect themselves a bit by making it harder for ISIS to fund it's campaign), a lower oil price would potentially hurt ISIS's ability to buy weapons etc, but not really hurt the likes of Saudi.

I suspect in reality the current price of oil will be down to a host of factors ranging from the purely economic, to the political and strategic.