Exit from Europe and impact on investments

Scarpacci

I seriously doubt a UK exit will happen. This is just posturing from the UK, trying to break the Franco-German (the latter in particular) hold on the EU, and of course the Germans trying to remain totally in charge. The UK has no real reason to kick up a fuss right now (other than irrelevant domestic politics), and the Germans have no real desire to see their European project disintegrate (though the Eurozone seems to be doing just that).

It would be ridiculous to leave the EU in 2014 for a migration wave that occurred in 2004 and, to a lesser extent, 2007. The time to do anything about that was when the EU was expanding, inviting in countries which were significantly poorer, and when the UK chose not to apply any restrictions on migration from these poor countries. The UK was one of the principal proponents of EU expansion and still is, and was one of the the few foolish countries not to impose restrictions on the new entrants.

Unless the EU is about to expand significantly again (the UK is a supporter of Turkey joining - God help us), what is the point of leaving the EU to limit migration from poor countries that has already happened and won't be reoccurring? The only problem with free EU migration is when it's not on a level playing field - ie. a country is significantly poorer than the rest of the countries, as was the case for the Eastern block countries welcomed in less than two decades after they freed themselves from communism, and so workers flood out. Otherwise, much like within the UK as a whole, it will broadly balance out.

The issue isn't about free movement, it's about EU expansion and extending the same "free movement" to countries which are significantly less developed. I don't think many people care about educated French, Germans, et al. working in the City. There's no reason to tear up free movement between developed EU, when it's only the new members which caused a problem.

The UK isn't going to leave the EU for migration it foolishly welcomed, as a result of policies it continues to support.

Archi_Bald

bowlhead99 wrote: »

So basically they haven't reacted one jot.

Not really surprising given that nobody actually heard Merkel saying what the papers report she, or perhaps one of her aides, might have said. The papers are whipping up some frenzy over nothing.

Onawingandaprayer

Archi_Bald wrote: »

The papers are whipping up some frenzy over nothing.

Oh come on, when have they ever done that?!:p

Thrugelmir

So much hot air blowing about. All political posturing. We'll now see who puts self interest ahead of a broader European agenda.

As for investments. Forget the politics. Focus on the actual Companies.

Archi_Bald

Interesting article in the Telegraph today - only a tiny portion of each tax payer's money goes towards the UK contribution to the EU budget. For example, it is £138 a year for a person earning £60,000. I for one am very happy to pay this, and would even happily pay more to stay in the club. Can't say the same for some of the other areas my tax money goes towards......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11204213/Voters-to-get-letters-showing-how-much-of-their-money-is-spent-on-benefits.html

talexuser

I read that article with interest and see it as way of buttering us up for cutting welfare with less protests after the next election. I would be interested in a breakdown of the welfare slice. What proportion goes on topping up low wages, or housing benefit as rents increase etc. State pension seems a huge slice equivalent to the entire education budget considering it is unfunded. Sorry to go off topic.

Archi_Bald

You might well be right but it should generally help people to have a few more facts on which they can base their decisions. At least those who can be bothered to read their statements, that is.

For additional breakdown of the welfare slice, there are a whole bunch of pretty charts on the web, e.g. on http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2012/09/osbornes-stark-choices-on-where-to-cut/welfare-chart-2/ although this one is 2 years old. I am sure with some more searching you can find more current data.

And there is the public spending website: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_2003_2016UKb_14s1li111mcn_40t

Thrugelmir

Archi_Bald wrote: »

For example, it is £138 a year for a person earning £60,000.

Which is the equivalent of handing £65 to a Frenchman and £50 to a German. Because their GDP growth has not been as good.

Totally perverse situation that the UK is borrowing money to fund countries with a far lower deficit.

Keep buying European stocks.

Archi_Bald

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Which is the equivalent of handing £65 to a Frenchman and £50 to a German. Because their GDP growth has not been as good.

I suppose you actually believe that. And that you would be very happy for countries such as Greece to support the UK.

EDIT: Have a look at some more facts http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/22/eu-budget-spending-contributions-european-union

http://www.money-go-round.eu/Country.aspx?id=UK

Rollinghome

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Interesting article in the Telegraph today - Can't say the same for some of the other areas my tax money goes towards......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11204213/Voters-to-get-letters-showing-how-much-of-their-money-is-spent-on-benefits.html

Will the 24 million letters they're to send out tell us the cost of sending out letters containing information that could be just published on the internet? Or what proportion they expect to be binned unread?