Tesco shares, when to buy?

Ryan_Futuristics

TheTracker wrote: »

I wouldn't consider buying a stock in a single company unless I had 2-3m in a portfolio, and even then probably not. Tesco, apple, Google, Tony's pizzaria. What you'd be saying is you know better than all the other people who currently do, and indeed do not, hold stock. Including those with inside knowledge, and believe me they do exist.

Where do you see the supermarket/grocery market going? You'd have a better chance at dart throwing with that level of granularity.

You needn't be so skittish about stocks (and you certainly don't need a 2-3m portfolio) ... This is what I mean by your Malkiel stuff being taken a bit too far sometimes

There's no better way to profit from dividends than just buying the stock - that's how you get rid of management fees, and that's how you can choose a solid company paying a 6% dividend; and AstraZeneca's outperformed the FTSE 100 for over a decade with comparable volatility (and arguably better prospects than an index full of energy firms and banks)

It's also much easier to identify buy and sell points, and assess valuation, than with a fund/index ... So yes you're moving up the risk/reward ladder, but you're also seeing things much more clearly

TheTracker

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

You needn't be so skittish about stocks (and you certainly don't need a 2-3m portfolio) ... This is what I mean by your Malkiel stuff being taken a bit too far sometimes

There's no better way to profit from dividends than just buying the stock - that's how you get rid of management fees, and that's how you can choose a solid company paying a 6% dividend; and AstraZeneca's outperformed the FTSE 100 for over a decade with comparable volatility (and arguably better prospects than an index full of energy firms and banks)

It's also much easier to identify buy and sell points, and assess valuation, than with a fund/index ... So yes you're moving up the risk/reward ladder, but you're also seeing things much more clearly

Fair enough. If that way your appetite lies then go for it. No disagreement here

callum9999

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

Well personally I stopped using supermarkets years ago ...

Online shopping became more convenient; getting 'speciality' items like gluten-free pizza bases is hit-and-miss in supermarkets; and with everyone trying to save money, buying food in bulk straight from manufacturers saves an enormous amount (I'd say I've cut parts of my food bill by 70-80%)

Now it seems more people are cottoning on to this, and for the younger generation it's second nature to order food online from Amazon or Ocado

So from my perspective, Tescos' business model is already redundant

What I think you've got with Tescos is a potential value trap ... A successful past, a big name, rock-bottom prices ... but can they turn things around? For me: it's a gamble

As a member of the "younger generation", I don't know a single person in this group who ever does their grocery shopping at Amazon or Ocado... If they do it online (most don't) then it's from Tesco/Asda/Sainsburys.

callum9999

FLAPJACK wrote: »

Joking aside..... Lidl could be a good buy the way things are going....if only they were on the market.

I asked the manager of the local Lidl how they can maintain such so reasonable prices for (in the main) decent goods. The answer was the buying power of Lidl is massive in europe, compared with the likes of Tesco...apparently Lidl have 9000 stores throughout europe.

Putting it like that Tescos begin to look small....particularly as their US outfit failed.

As was mentioned once on TV.....what American woman (or any woman) would like to be seen carrying a bag with "Fresh and Easy" on the side?......means a lot more in the states than here I know, but where were Tesco's US marketing people??

Spar have 13,000 stores - would you describe them as bigger than Tesco? I certainly wouldn't. The average Tesco store will be turning over a hell of a lot more than the average Lidl!

Nosler

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

It's also much easier to identify buy and sell points, and assess valuation, than with a fund/index ... So yes you're moving up the risk/reward ladder, but you're also seeing things much more clearly

perhaps you could tell how to find the buy/sell points?

Ryan_Futuristics

Nosler wrote: »

perhaps you could tell how to find the buy/sell points?

Nosler wrote: »

perhaps you could tell how to find the buy/sell points?

You find them by interpreting the data you get on a company ... You'd have some kind of algorithm or screening process to find stocks that qualify for being held, then base your buy/sell decisions on that (perhaps just looking at it monthly)

E.g. as a value investor, I might buy a company when it trades at a discount to its underlying value, and sell when it's reached its underlying value ... Or as a momentum investor, I might buy when a stock's price is climbing, and sell when it's falling

Nowadays you'd use software to do this - one of the simplest examples is Stockopedia's selection of classic investor screens:

http://www.stockopedia.com/screens/jim-slater-zulu-principle-screen-19/

Or for something very modern (albeit American) Portfolio123's competitive stock screening models

http://www.portfolio123.com/app/r2g/summary/1131646

Minrich

callum9999 wrote: »

Spar have 13,000 stores - would you describe them as bigger than Tesco? I certainly wouldn't. The average Tesco store will be turning over a hell of a lot more than the average Lidl!

Tesco is the 2nd or 3rd biggest retailer in the world , isn't it ?

Making £1.4billion pa when you are doing badly is pretty good ?

Doom and gloomers yesterday quote 158p its now 18p higher than that !

callum9999

Minrich wrote: »

Tesco is the 2nd or 3rd biggest retailer in the world , isn't it ?

Making £1.4billion pa when you are doing badly is pretty good ?

Doom and gloomers yesterday quote 158p its now 18p higher than that !

Yeah it's the third largest by profit and second largest by revenue.

British people have an incredibly bizarre attitude towards success - if any company gets too successful they're then hated. It's a supermarket! I don't shop there very often as I find it a bit more expensive than Asda, but I just cannot believe the amount of vitriol some people hold towards a shop.

It's almost as if they believe they're raising armies of child soldiers in Africa in preparation for a global takeover or something!

IronWolf

Sold out of my remaining Tesco position today. Thankfully it was a 1% position and I managed to sell most of it at 380p ages ago.

Atm with £1.4bn 'trading profit', debt of £7.5bn and market cap of £14bn they look pretty fairly valued considering the headwinds they're facing

robin58

callum9999 wrote: »

Spar have 13,000 stores - would you describe them as bigger than Tesco? I certainly wouldn't. The average Tesco store will be turning over a hell of a lot more than the average Lidl!

Yep. But no point in having a large turnover if you aren't making the money to run the business and to future plan.

Better to have reasonable turnover which Lidl / Aldi do.

As for buying Tesco shares, I would not touch them until the new year.