London new builds number?

BigMac400

London will soon be one of the long predicted mega cities of the future if the supply of properties continues to grow at this rate.

The future is more uncertain for the next generation than it was for the last. Not only the perfect economic storm approaching as the monetary cycle repeats but even before that with property prices bearing no relation to any historical measurement. There is no knowing what will happen to the property market in London in the future, but if prices stay up here or go up anymore then chaos is getting more likely. There could be mass evictions when the monetary cycle repeats, apparently there are something like 10,000 tenants behind with their rents in 2014, if that number goes up to 100K or more then the chaos in the property market will make me very pleased I am not a property owner.

MobileSaver

BigMac400 wrote: »

there are something like 10,000 tenants behind with their rents in 2014, if that number goes up to 100K or more then the chaos in the property market will make me very pleased I am not a property owner.

In the unlikely event that the number of tenants in arrears increases 10-fold that would still only account for 1% of all renters... hardly "chaos".

If you are paying your landlord's mortgage by choice when you could buy yourself then more fool you. If you're not a renter by choice then be careful what you wish for... if arrears do start increasing significantly your next landlord may ask for a much bigger deposit before agreeing any tenancy.

BigMac400

It would be chaos for banks if interest rates go back to normal and mass defaults.

MobileSaver

BigMac400 wrote: »

It would be chaos for banks if interest rates go back to normal

Um, no it wouldn't.

BigMac400 wrote: »

mass defaults.

"Normal" over the 10 years pre-credit-crunch is around 5%; only wishful thinking from the HPC deluded would suggest mass defaults based on that.

Generali

MobileSaver wrote: »

Um, no it wouldn't.



"Normal" over the 10 years pre-credit-crunch is around 5%; only wishful thinking from the HPC deluded would suggest mass defaults based on that.

Assuming that base rates normalise to 5% and spreads narrow to something more normal then we're probably looking at an increase in mortgage rates from about 3-4% to more like 7-8%. That won't be costless to all sorts of people.

I don't think that would cause mass defaults: if it would then the BoE wouldn't raise rates that high. Not without inflation running out of control anyway.

BigMac400

How many more homes need to be added to supply before London is classed as one of the mega cities?

tokyo has more than 19million people, London has a long way to go yet.

NorthFin

Generali wrote: »

Assuming that base rates normalise to 5% and spreads narrow to something more normal then we're probably looking at an increase in mortgage rates from about 3-4% to more like 7-8%. That won't be costless to all sorts of people.

I don't think that would cause mass defaults: if it would then the BoE wouldn't raise rates that high. Not without inflation running out of control anyway.

This would mean many households will struggle to meet their monthly payments. Many have got used to 300 years low interest rates, they have been kept too low for too long.


The real problem facing property owners with large mortgages is the deflationary spiral the world is now in.

Debts are going up, the opposite of what everyone was predicting when they were saying big inflation was coming, so take on lots of debt.

I would not want to have a large property portfolio at the moment unless there was very little debt remaining.

The-Joker

BigMac400 wrote: »

How many more homes need to be added to supply before London is classed as one of the mega cities?

tokyo has more than 19million people, London has a long way to go yet.

London is classed as a mega city, just a lot smaller than Tokyo. But they are coming closer together, London is growing faster than Tokyo.

If all the new high rise blocks of flats get built in London like the Shard over the next decade then it will be a house building bubble like never before seen in the UK.

cells

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

who makes these projections?
Companieattempting to secure funding for infrastructure projefunding rejecg politicians attempting to win votes by migrant bashing?

Yeh its all a hoax

so is the record ticket numbers on buses and trains

but thats probably just BNP members employed by infrastructure companies taking joy rides on the tube and bus system to get funding...right?

cells

MercilessKiller wrote: »

Hi Everyone

While I haven't seen physical numbers, as someone who has been house hunting in London for 2 years, I can state that I have seen a HUGE increase in number of new builds going up!

Help to buy has made a big difference, more so in London than anywhere else by the looks of things!

In the past 6 months, there have been a lot of developments that are now starting to take reservations, and a lot more developments advertising that they will be taking reservations in the next year.

When Help to Buy came in, it was always going to take a while for builders to get the buildings up, but it is happening without a doubt. Supply was a problem, but seems to be going the right way now.

Just reserved a property in a new development in Croydon with Help to Buy - Exciting times.

Each individual borough in london can vary hugely from year to year from as few as 200 to as high as 2000.

ONS has data for new builds in London by year by borough

so you seeing lots of builds locally isn't much of an indication to London overall.

from memory last time I checked London was running at 15-20k new builds a year which is insufficient. Needs are closer to 50k a year