FTSE correction? When and how much?

C_Mababejive

How much do you think the next big downward correction will be?

I'm thinking of doing a round of profit taking and wondering what percentage to take?

enator

Will hit new record before Christmas if the Jocks say no & then collapse 20%/25% when Labour win the next election.


Other opinions are available...

C_Mababejive

I think the DScotland issue is just a Highland fling. Those who have the power to manipulate the market are using it to create a pull down so they can bail in on the cheap and when its all over, there will be a recovery.

The Scotland rise in vote is more about what i call the Braveheart syndrome i.e all Flodden,Culloden and William Wallace rather than real, thought out analysis as to where to put your tick. I believe there will be civil unrest because of it.

Linton

50% in 2017 when UK (or UK - Scotland) votes to leave the EU. Take all of your money out now as there will be a steady downward pull on the FTSE as we approach the referendum.

However that might be totally wrong. Although there would be the steady downward pull, the day after the referendum when the vote has been to stay in the FTSE will shoot up to unprecedented heights and by selling all your investments you will have lost out.

No-one knows. Taking profits is likely to be futile at best or counter-productive at worst unless there is something you would rather invest in than the FTSE. If that's the case, why havent you invested in it already?

In my view you are better off keeping to a predetermined % allocation of investments and rebalancing when the %'s have drifted significantly.

BLB53

I think that trying to second guess the market is futile and will only add to your investment costs and make your broker very happy.

No one can predict what will happen tomorrow so my advice, fwiw, would be to sit tight and hold for the long term, keep trading cost to a minimum and take no notice of press speculation and general market 'noise'.

vectistim

The other question is - if you do some profit taking - what do you then do with that money?

lalman

I think it will be back end of 2015 or mid 2016. I say that because we are seeing speculation and complete bizarre and unrational behaviour occurring in corp bonds, share and debt markets... rates are just so low when you factor in the risks involved.

As soon as rates begin to rise, say to 1.5 - 2% and the money taps are officially off and are unlikely to have the backs of these risk takers we will see the correction.

I must admit, I did think the crash would occur when property in China collapsed, and the unknown contagion moved across to western banks but it doesn't seem to be the case... Chinese property is in mid collapse and we haven't felt the tremmers yet... im even shocked that China is still growing at the rate it is...

I thought due to demographical changes across the world and a aging population we would see a larger slow down this year...

C_Mababejive

All good points...maybe i just have my balance all wrong and thats what making me twitchy.

What i have at the moment..

Cash
some corporate bond funds
Some equity funds FTSE stuff
1 x smaller companies UK fund
Shares mostly FTSE 100
shares 1 x AIM small company (circa 1.6p each !)
Prem bonds
Some silver coins (circa 100)
No Gold !

I guess its all a mish mash and i need to spreadsheet this lot to work out proportions.

Whilst im doing that, can anyone suggest proportions for each?

I know we digress..

lalman

I think proportions depends on your personal risk profile and requirements...

pip895

If you think you are a little over exposed to UK stocks why not go for a global fund e.g. Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK with part of the portfolio.
I have also added to my holdings in Asia which are doing well at the moment.