us dollar/pound exchange rate

justme111

What do you think is going to happen to it in the next 6/12 months ?
I got a saving account in dollars , it does not give me any interest so would want to transfer it in ££ bit would hate to exchange it just to find the dollar has grown the day after .. before someone "clever" will jump at a chance to lecture me on unpredictability of exchange rates - I know it is a guess , and that's precisely what I am after

Archi_Bald

My guess is that it will go up and down, not necessarily in that sequence, and definitely not just once.

IronWolf

You're a bit too late, last week the GBP got hammered and will likely fall more until Sept 18th. if the Scots vote no expect it to rebound, if they vote yes it will probably fall further.

bowlhead99

IronWolf wrote: »

You're a bit too late, last week the GBP got hammered and will likely fall more until Sept 18th. if the Scots vote no expect it to rebound, if they vote yes it will probably fall further.

Well, I would say the OP is not too late as the pound has indeed got hammered which means you can buy more of them for a dollar.

As someone who wants to convert dollars to pounds, OP has done well by not converting last week and paying $1.66 for a pound or a couple of months back paying 1.72, when today he'd only need to pay $1.62, right?

I tend to agree it may fall a bit further towards the referendum but perhaps not too much further before the big event and then go back up towards 1.65 or beyond if No are victorious.

justme111

Tx. I was thinking over a but longer timeframe , more on the lines of different monetary policy affecting currency

IronWolf

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Well, I would say the OP is not too late as the pound has indeed got hammered which means you can buy more of them for a dollar.

As someone who wants to convert dollars to pounds, OP has done well by not converting last week and paying $1.66 for a pound or a couple of months back paying 1.72, when today he'd only need to pay $1.62, right?

I tend to agree it may fall a bit further towards the referendum but perhaps not too much further before the big event and then go back up towards 1.65 or beyond if No are victorious.

ah yes I was thinking the wrong way round. Well good news OP you timed it well, I'd do it now

TattyBear

I looked at the historic £/$ exchange rate the other week. Online information goes back to about 1990. Dollar rate is quite volatile over every 5 year period between about 1.40 and 1.70.

bowlhead99

justme111 wrote: »

Tx. I was thinking over a but longer timeframe , more on the lines of different monetary policy affecting currency

The monetary policy is similar between the two countries though, or at least moving in the same direction. Eurozone is where the interest rates are actively being pulled downwards and more stimulus promised, while UK and US are both looking to retract stimulus / put rates up in due course.

As USD is a bit more of a safe haven currency it is perhaps likely to get a bit more of a boost than GBP when Euro is being sold. So you might expect USD to strengthen further. But GBP is not massively expensive against dollar at the moment so personally, I don't see us going back down to the mid to low 1.50s unless there's a Yes vote for independence.

Assuming a No vote I would be long sterling vs dollar through to next year, while acknowledging the range in Q3/Q4 might only be 1.55-1.65, lquite a bit lower than what we had a few months back, before improving to 1.60-1.70 late this year/ early next as a rise in UK base rate becomes more likely. If it becomes more likely... it's all a bit of an unknown really.