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FTB numbers up 25% in a year.....
Comments
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-GDP per capita rising MARGINALLY
-Wages rising BELOW INFLATION
-House prices rising FALLING
-Employment rising PART TIME/ZERO HOURS0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »-GDP rising
-GDP per capita rising
-Wages rising
-House prices rising
-Employment rising
Pretty clear that raising rates slowly and gently under such circumstances will not cause either a house price crash or recession.
On the face of it without looking any further, that sounds great.
However, just a tiny peek further reveals that GDP is a pretty flawed measure, especially when adding prostitution bumps it up nicely.
Wages are rising, yes. But it would be pretty astonishing to see them falling. What matters is how much they are rising compared to general inflation. You can have wage rises but be worse off....which is what is happening to the average person.
House prices are rising, granted. But I'm not sure how much of the rises are due to a healthier economy, and how much are due to expanding credit / foreign investments etc.
As for employment, only the other day the ONS revealed that 2 3rds of all new jobs created were self employed. Now, you could either suggest the country is full of entreprenaurs, or you could suggest the country is full of people looking for any way they can to benefit themselves. With the tax credits issue, many are becoming self employed for benefits purposes and also as employers demand it. A healthy economy would suggest that employers would be keen to take on staff...instead, we have a situatuion where more and more employers look to taking on self employed staff, whom they have no responsibility for shold things turn sour.0 -
Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »-GDP per capita rising MARGINALLY
But rising. Better than falling.Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »-Wages rising BELOW INFLATION
But rising. Better than falling. Definitely attenuating the impact of inflation on earners.Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »-House prices rising FALLING
Rising falling? That's clearly some sort of economic subtlety I am not aware of. I'll assume you mean the speed of the rise is falling, which means still rising.Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »-Employment rising PART TIME/ZERO HOURS
The ONS statistics continually list full time employment as the majority contributor to the increase in the number of people in employment.If you think of it as 'us' verses 'them', then it's probably your side that are the villains.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »On the face of it without looking any further, that sounds great.
However, just a tiny peek further reveals that GDP is a pretty flawed measure, especially when adding prostitution bumps it up nicely.
Wages are rising, yes. But it would be pretty astonishing to see them falling. What matters is how much they are rising compared to general inflation. You can have wage rises but be worse off....which is what is happening to the average person.
House prices are rising, granted. But I'm not sure how much of the rises are due to a healthier economy, and how much are due to expanding credit / foreign investments etc.
As for employment, only the other day the ONS revealed that 2 3rds of all new jobs created were self employed. Now, you could either suggest the country is full of entreprenaurs, or you could suggest the country is full of people looking for any way they can to benefit themselves. With the tax credits issue, many are becoming self employed for benefits purposes and also as employers demand it. A healthy economy would suggest that employers would be keen to take on staff...instead, we have a situatuion where more and more employers look to taking on self employed staff, whom they have no responsibility for shold things turn sour.
like i said
the economy is NOT improving
when you look closely at the details
its a cheap magicians trick
but one which most people have fallen for0 -
But rising. Better than falling.
But rising. Better than falling. Definitely attenuating the impact of inflation on earners.
Rising falling? That's clearly some sort of economic subtlety I am not aware of. I'll assume you mean the speed of the rise is falling, which means still rising.
The ONS statistics continually list full time employment as the majority contributor to the increase in the number of people in employment.
have you ever considered a career in pr?0 -
Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »have you ever considered a career in pr?
Have you?If you think of it as 'us' verses 'them', then it's probably your side that are the villains.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »On the face of it without looking any further, that sounds great.
However, just a tiny peek further reveals that GDP is a pretty flawed measure, especially when adding prostitution bumps it up nicely.
Wages are rising, yes. But it would be pretty astonishing to see them falling. What matters is how much they are rising compared to general inflation. You can have wage rises but be worse off....which is what is happening to the average person.
House prices are rising, granted. But I'm not sure how much of the rises are due to a healthier economy, and how much are due to expanding credit / foreign investments etc.
As for employment, only the other day the ONS revealed that 2 3rds of all new jobs created were self employed. Now, you could either suggest the country is full of entreprenaurs, or you could suggest the country is full of people looking for any way they can to benefit themselves. With the tax credits issue, many are becoming self employed for benefits purposes and also as employers demand it. A healthy economy would suggest that employers would be keen to take on staff...instead, we have a situatuion where more and more employers look to taking on self employed staff, whom they have no responsibility for shold things turn sour.
I don't remember you mentioning just how flawed GDP was as an economic indicator when you were predicting a 'tripple' dip.
Same with unemployment - did you advise caution when unemployment was rising? I think, as you do, that some of the self employment figures indicate benefit manipulation but that's small picture stuff - wasn't unemployment down about 800,000 in a year - that's almost nothing to do with tax credits.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »-GDP rising
-GDP per capita rising
-Wages rising
-House prices rising
-Employment rising
Pretty clear that raising rates slowly and gently under such circumstances will not cause either a house price crash or recession.
When do you expect rates to rise? How many years from now?
I say they won't ever rise given the unsustainable amount of sovereign debt the U.K. has.
Those things you state are rising, aren't. In the run up to an election all sort of positive data will come pouring out of whitehall and it's various agencies. Employment rising could come from people in part time work or from jobseekers encouraged to take on loans for a business start up. These businesses will soon fail but hopefully after the general election when the numbers claiming JSA begin to rise, along with the unemployment statistics.0
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