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FTB numbers up 25% in a year.....

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Comments

  • -GDP per capita rising MARGINALLY

    -Wages rising BELOW INFLATION

    -House prices rising FALLING

    -Employment rising PART TIME/ZERO HOURS
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 25 August 2014 at 8:24PM
    -GDP rising

    -GDP per capita rising

    -Wages rising

    -House prices rising

    -Employment rising

    Pretty clear that raising rates slowly and gently under such circumstances will not cause either a house price crash or recession.

    On the face of it without looking any further, that sounds great.

    However, just a tiny peek further reveals that GDP is a pretty flawed measure, especially when adding prostitution bumps it up nicely.

    Wages are rising, yes. But it would be pretty astonishing to see them falling. What matters is how much they are rising compared to general inflation. You can have wage rises but be worse off....which is what is happening to the average person.

    House prices are rising, granted. But I'm not sure how much of the rises are due to a healthier economy, and how much are due to expanding credit / foreign investments etc.

    As for employment, only the other day the ONS revealed that 2 3rds of all new jobs created were self employed. Now, you could either suggest the country is full of entreprenaurs, or you could suggest the country is full of people looking for any way they can to benefit themselves. With the tax credits issue, many are becoming self employed for benefits purposes and also as employers demand it. A healthy economy would suggest that employers would be keen to take on staff...instead, we have a situatuion where more and more employers look to taking on self employed staff, whom they have no responsibility for shold things turn sour.
  • danothy
    danothy Posts: 2,200 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    -GDP per capita rising MARGINALLY

    But rising. Better than falling.
    -Wages rising BELOW INFLATION

    But rising. Better than falling. Definitely attenuating the impact of inflation on earners.
    -House prices rising FALLING

    Rising falling? That's clearly some sort of economic subtlety I am not aware of. I'll assume you mean the speed of the rise is falling, which means still rising.
    -Employment rising PART TIME/ZERO HOURS

    The ONS statistics continually list full time employment as the majority contributor to the increase in the number of people in employment.
    If you think of it as 'us' verses 'them', then it's probably your side that are the villains.
  • On the face of it without looking any further, that sounds great.

    However, just a tiny peek further reveals that GDP is a pretty flawed measure, especially when adding prostitution bumps it up nicely.

    Wages are rising, yes. But it would be pretty astonishing to see them falling. What matters is how much they are rising compared to general inflation. You can have wage rises but be worse off....which is what is happening to the average person.

    House prices are rising, granted. But I'm not sure how much of the rises are due to a healthier economy, and how much are due to expanding credit / foreign investments etc.

    As for employment, only the other day the ONS revealed that 2 3rds of all new jobs created were self employed. Now, you could either suggest the country is full of entreprenaurs, or you could suggest the country is full of people looking for any way they can to benefit themselves. With the tax credits issue, many are becoming self employed for benefits purposes and also as employers demand it. A healthy economy would suggest that employers would be keen to take on staff...instead, we have a situatuion where more and more employers look to taking on self employed staff, whom they have no responsibility for shold things turn sour.

    like i said
    the economy is NOT improving
    when you look closely at the details
    its a cheap magicians trick
    but one which most people have fallen for
  • danothy wrote: »
    But rising. Better than falling.



    But rising. Better than falling. Definitely attenuating the impact of inflation on earners.



    Rising falling? That's clearly some sort of economic subtlety I am not aware of. I'll assume you mean the speed of the rise is falling, which means still rising.



    The ONS statistics continually list full time employment as the majority contributor to the increase in the number of people in employment.

    have you ever considered a career in pr?
  • danothy
    danothy Posts: 2,200 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    have you ever considered a career in pr?

    Have you?
    If you think of it as 'us' verses 'them', then it's probably your side that are the villains.
  • wotsthat
    wotsthat Posts: 11,325 Forumite
    On the face of it without looking any further, that sounds great.

    However, just a tiny peek further reveals that GDP is a pretty flawed measure, especially when adding prostitution bumps it up nicely.

    Wages are rising, yes. But it would be pretty astonishing to see them falling. What matters is how much they are rising compared to general inflation. You can have wage rises but be worse off....which is what is happening to the average person.

    House prices are rising, granted. But I'm not sure how much of the rises are due to a healthier economy, and how much are due to expanding credit / foreign investments etc.

    As for employment, only the other day the ONS revealed that 2 3rds of all new jobs created were self employed. Now, you could either suggest the country is full of entreprenaurs, or you could suggest the country is full of people looking for any way they can to benefit themselves. With the tax credits issue, many are becoming self employed for benefits purposes and also as employers demand it. A healthy economy would suggest that employers would be keen to take on staff...instead, we have a situatuion where more and more employers look to taking on self employed staff, whom they have no responsibility for shold things turn sour.

    I don't remember you mentioning just how flawed GDP was as an economic indicator when you were predicting a 'tripple' dip.

    Same with unemployment - did you advise caution when unemployment was rising? I think, as you do, that some of the self employment figures indicate benefit manipulation but that's small picture stuff - wasn't unemployment down about 800,000 in a year - that's almost nothing to do with tax credits.
  • pop_gun
    pop_gun Posts: 372 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Combo Breaker
    -GDP rising

    -GDP per capita rising

    -Wages rising

    -House prices rising

    -Employment rising

    Pretty clear that raising rates slowly and gently under such circumstances will not cause either a house price crash or recession.

    When do you expect rates to rise? How many years from now?
    I say they won't ever rise given the unsustainable amount of sovereign debt the U.K. has.

    Those things you state are rising, aren't. In the run up to an election all sort of positive data will come pouring out of whitehall and it's various agencies. Employment rising could come from people in part time work or from jobseekers encouraged to take on loans for a business start up. These businesses will soon fail but hopefully after the general election when the numbers claiming JSA begin to rise, along with the unemployment statistics.
  • danothy
    danothy Posts: 2,200 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    pop_gun wrote: »
    Those things you state are rising, aren't.

    I think we all know that to be the truth really, but it's important to keep up the pretence that they are.
    If you think of it as 'us' verses 'them', then it's probably your side that are the villains.
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