FTB numbers up 25% in a year.....

Bubble_and_Squeak

alberty wrote: »

Starting a 5 year fix mortgage I do worry that the strength of the recovery means rate rises will be a lot steeper than carney is saying. Should have fixed 10 years..

there is no recovery
don't worry about rates
they're going nowhere

alberty

There is a London recovery certain sectors are already seeing it. I work in IT and just changed jobs to a 60% salary increase, would not have happened last year. Although with HPI I'm worse off than what I could have got last year!
The reasons you mention for calling the top of the market are close to the reasons why I think investment and migrants are flooding in here, London is the promised land compared to the alternatives.

the eu economy (our biggest trading partner)is on the brink of recession,
trade war with russia (where does europe get its gas from?),
china hot money drying up,
US tapering,
wars (one of which is in europe),

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

OH MY DAYS!
you think the economy growing!
hahaha

I agree, Hamish's delusions are HILARIOUS! It's as if he's looked at the GDP figures for the last six quarters and mistakenly thought they were all increasing ... what an utter boob he must be to make that kind of elementary mistake.

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

I agree, Hamish's delusions are HILARIOUS! It's as if he's looked at the GDP figures for the last six quarters and mistakenly thought they were all increasing ... what an utter boob he must be to make that kind of elementary mistake.

another joker

Bubble_and_Squeak

alberty wrote: »

There is a London recovery certain sectors are already seeing it. I work in IT and just changed jobs to a 60% salary increase, would not have happened last year. Although with HPI I'm worse off than what I could have got last year!
The reasons you mention for calling the top of the market are close to the reasons why I think investment and migrants are flooding in here, London is the promised land compared to the alternatives.

the eu economy (our biggest trading partner)is on the brink of recession,
trade war with russia (where does europe get its gas from?),
china hot money drying up,
US tapering,
wars (one of which is in europe),

good point
don't worry about HPI
it is now negative in london

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

another joker

Who was the first joker such that I only qualify as 'another'?

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

Who was the first joker such that I only qualify as 'another'?

ah, i'm hopeless at riddles
but seriously
the economy is the same size now as it was in 2007
but with more people in employment
this means that productivity is lower
this is reflected in negative growth in wages
the notion that the economy is improving is a falsehood created by government

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

ah, i'm hopeless at riddles
but seriously
the economy is the same size now as it was in 2007
but with more people in employment
this means that productivity is lower
this is reflected in negative growth in wages
the notion that the economy is improving is a falsehood created by government

Ahh, so the GDP per capita is in decline as well as the nominal GDP? And the "negative growth in wages" isn't just due to deferment of bonuses for tax purposes, and taking that into account base pay isn't still rising by 0.6pc year on year?

Or is it that improvement to you means that things must be better than they have ever previously been rather than just better than the previous measurement interval?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

danothy wrote: »

Or is it that improvement to you means that things must be better than they have ever previously been rather than just better than the previous measurement interval?

-GDP rising

-GDP per capita rising

-Wages rising

-House prices rising

-Employment rising

Pretty clear that raising rates slowly and gently under such circumstances will not cause either a house price crash or recession.

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

Ahh, so the GDP per capita is in decline as well as the nominal GDP? And the "negative growth in wages" isn't just due to deferment of bonuses for tax purposes, and taking that into account base pay isn't still rising by 0.6pc year on year?

Or is it that improvement to you means that things must be better than they have ever previously been rather than just better than the previous measurement interval?

nice charts!
real wage growth has been negative since 2007
unless i've been looking at figures for another country
will the bonuses claw back all the losses from the last 7 years when they come through?