London Has Peaked

Crashy_Time

danothy wrote: »

If I already think 'too much' in what way is my brain not already 'engaded'? I suppose that pointing out that a property with a lower asking price than a single nearby recent sale doesn't necessarily mean that prices are dropping if the lower asking price is still extremely high in comparison to the history of the area and all the other recent sales isn't 'knowing what I'm on about'. Because focusing on a single datum point is the most competent thing one can do, and I should listen and not question that.

Also, my name is not 'Danny'. Start by getting that right and we'll see if you can get something else right too.

Glad you could engade. I think your definition of "dropping" is a bit confused, by your thinking only prices lower than the historical low can be classed as dropping? That sounds like typical "homeowner" denial to me. Yes, prices are way up on historical norms, that is why we are in a bubble, but dropping is going lower, and that is obviously happening.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well it`s not you Chucky, so you can hold your laughter.

If only we had rented a bedsit instead of buying. But of course I know it isn't me, it must be some loser on HPC, mustn't it? That is what is hilarious!

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Obviously not, we made the drastic error of buying 9 properties (4 of them now mortgage free). If only we had rented a bedsit instead. But of course I know it isn't me, it must be some loser on HPC, mustn't it? That is what is hilarious!

So are you I.O on the other five, that you feel the need to come on here and try to defend a broken housing market all the time?


I think believing that owning or "owning" 9 properties makes you a winner is quite sad.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So are you I.O on the other five, that you feel the need to come on here and try to defend a broken housing market all the time?


I think believing that owning or "owning" 9 properties makes you a winner is quite sad.

First of all I not 'defending' anything! You really do not understand finance do you?

Yes we are I.O. on the other 5 mortgages, but we have more invested in other non property investments than the value of the outstanding mortgages. Would you really expect us to pay off the mortgages when the average rate is about 1.1% (which is only 0.66% net of tax)? You might think that would be a good thing to do, but that is why you would never be in that position in the first place. You are without question the biggest fool that I have seen on this website in a long time.


EDIT: In fact I am beginning to think that you might not be real, you may just be a bull, trying to make the bears look like fools by typing rubbish.

danothy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Glad you could engade.

Glad you could spell engage.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I think your definition of "dropping" is a bit confused, by your thinking only prices lower than the historical low can be classed as dropping?

It seem you are the confused one. That typically comes from making incorrect assumptions though. Dropping house prices would require the average house price to reduce. One house on a street being listed at a lower price than the previous maximum sale value (but still substantially higher than the recent average for the street) does not indicate this. This is due to the statistical variation in house size/quality/desirability and therefore price.

If anything the listing noted in this thread indicates the opposite, even though it is lower than the historical high, as it is well above the historical average. Seriously, take a look at the graph of sale and asking prices for that avenue (I've added the other listing that was omitted in the previous version, the big red Xs are the listings' asking prices):



There's no way that because one of the listings is below the historical high it can be considered to be indicative of house price decline on that avenue when it is still substantially higher than all but one of the recent previous sales.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

That sounds like typical "homeowner" denial to me.

Again, you are making assumptions and they are incorrect. I am not a home owner.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yes, prices are way up on historical norms, that is why we are in a bubble, but dropping is going lower, and that is obviously happening.

When looking at the asking prices on Moselle Avenue it is quite obvious that it is in fact not happening. If anything the early indications are that the average is going up. Those listings could sell for tens of thousands less than asking price and still push up the average for Moselle Avenue.

danothy

NorthFin wrote: »

4.2% is still high when you look at the long term norm of around 3.5%.

I don't think 4.2% of income is high, even historically, because a salary of £27,000 would mean you were limited to a mortgage of £1,155 (4.2% of £27,000 = £1,155). Surely it must be 4.2% of your income over the 25 year term of the mortgage then? So if you earn £27,000 a year that's a £28,875 mortgage you could have (4.2% of 25 × £27,000 = £28,875). Either way, it doesn't seem that high to me ...

System

danothy wrote: »

I don't think 4.2% of income is high, even historically, because a salary of £27,000 would mean you were limited to a mortgage of £1,155 (4.2% of £27,000 = £1,155). Surely it must be 4.2% of your income over the 25 year term of the mortgage then? So if you earn £27,000 a year that's a £28,875 mortgage you could have (4.2% of 25 × £27,000 = £28,875). Either way, it doesn't seem that high to me ...

Our new "experts" don't understand the different between % and multiples.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

First of all I not 'defending' anything! You really do not understand finance do you?

Yes we are I.O. on the other 5 mortgages, but we have more invested in other non property investments than the value of the outstanding mortgages. Would you really expect us to pay off the mortgages when the average rate is about 1.1% (which is only 0.66% net of tax)? You might think that would be a good thing to do, but that is why you would never be in that position in the first place. You are without question the biggest fool that I have seen on this website in a long time.


EDIT: In fact I am beginning to think that you might not be real, you may just be a bull, trying to make the bears look like fools by typing rubbish.

At your age and with the number of properties you have I would be expecting you to take this last chance to cash in at least some of your chips. You really don`t understand credit/sentiment driven bubbles do you? If a bin man has retired a millionaire from his Ponzi gains why would anyone want to manage and repair NINE properties! When I did own a house years ago I used to let it out (to people I knew) It was a NIGHTMARE.

Crashy_Time

danothy wrote: »

Glad you could spell engage.



It seem you are the confused one. That typically comes from making incorrect assumptions though. Dropping house prices would require the average house price to reduce. One house on a street being listed at a lower price than the previous maximum sale value (but still substantially higher than the recent average for the street) does not indicate this. This is due to the statistical variation in house size/quality/desirability and therefore price.

If anything the listing noted in this thread indicates the opposite, even though it is lower than the historical high, as it is well above the historical average. Seriously, take a look at the graph of sale and asking prices for that avenue (I've added the other listing that was omitted in the previous version, the big red Xs are the listings' asking prices):



There's no way that because one of the listings is below the historical high it can be considered to be indicative of house price decline on that avenue when it is still substantially higher than all but one of the recent previous sales.



Again, you are making assumptions and they are incorrect. I am not a home owner.



When looking at the asking prices on Moselle Avenue it is quite obvious that it is in fact not happening. If anything the early indications are that the average is going up. Those listings could sell for tens of thousands less than asking price and still push up the average for Moselle Avenue.

Somebody dropped their price, others will soon do the same, just accept it. Run towards the light.

danothy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Somebody dropped their price, others will soon do the same, just accept it. Run towards the light.

Who precisely has dropped their price on Moselle Avenue? I thought that BnS said they had actually increased the asking price:

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

then put it back up again

It seems that I am unwilling to 'just accept it' on faith from you dictum. I prefer to look at the actual numbers and draw my own conclusions. I feel certain that you don't think I 'know what I am doing', but at least I can explain what it is that I am doing to draw such conclusions. Can you?