London Has Peaked

cells

MARTYM8` wrote: »

It is as you say the availability of money that primarily drives house prices – not primarily the supply of people. London’s population now is just above its peak in 1939 – and there are more properties now than there were then.

If it was just about people then London house prices would have risen in line with general inflation since 1939. That isn’t the case.

Two factors impact house prices, one is supply and demand of homes and people and the other is the interest rate (which is the supply and demand of credit). However there are many economic theories which explain quite well why the interest rate will tend down towards zero and its been true for pretty much all of the last 25 years that interest rates have fallen


it isnt about people its about households and households have gotten far smaller over the last 70 years

What this means is that more homes are needed to accommodate the smaller households. For example between 1980 and 1983 the UK population was exactly flat....however some 800,000 new homes were built during that time. These homes were needed to allow for demographic changes and had those 800,000 homes not been built prices in 1983 would have been a lot higher

CLAPTON

MARTYM8` wrote: »

It is as you say the availability of money that primarily drives house prices – not primarily the supply of people. London’s population now is just above its peak in 1939 – and there are more properties now than there were then.

If it was just about people then London house prices would have risen in line with general inflation since 1939. That isn’t the case.

No idea what will happen to London prices in the next 5 years – but I expect it will be more closely linked to the strength of the global economy and the banking system than the arrival of more low wage migrants. Even in London there is a limit to how many first time buyers can afford to spend £300,000 to buy a one bed flat without a substantial subsidy or mortgage – and newly arrived people on low wages probably aren’t among them.

given we have more houses in london that ever before:
can we therefor conclude that London housing standards have never been better?

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

The cheapest rent in Hoylake for a 3 bed property is currently up for £825. My mortgage is currently £519, so you are partly right, I am wrong about the monthly rent cost as I underestimated the cost by £150 per month, I am in fact saving £300pcm

Well done. due to emergency interest rates you are a financial genius :T Assuming that interest rates don`t rise and that the renter couldn`t get a better deal by going to a private let you are winning the rent V buy war in your area, at the moment. My rent is still cheaper than your mortgage though, so I am not really jealous or anything like that, and it doesn`t change the fact that the housing market is distorted beyond all sensible measures?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well done. due to emergency interest rates you are a financial genius :T Assuming that interest rates don`t rise and that the renter couldn`t get a better deal by going to a private let you are winning the rent V buy war in your area, at the moment. My rent is still cheaper than your mortgage though, so I am not really jealous or anything like that, and it doesn`t change the fact that the housing market is distorted beyond all sensible measures?

The big difference is you've been renting for 20 years if you had bought you would be 5 years away from living rent free.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

The big difference is you've been renting for 20 years if you had bought you would be 5 years away from living rent free.

After the debt bubble bursts houses will be cheap as chips, no need to panic about getting on the mortgage train IMO.

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well done. due to emergency interest rates you are a financial genius :T Assuming that interest rates don`t rise and that the renter couldn`t get a better deal by going to a private let you are winning the rent V buy war in your area, at the moment. My rent is still cheaper than your mortgage though, so I am not really jealous or anything like that, and it doesn`t change the fact that the housing market is distorted beyond all sensible measures?

Your rent is much cheaper because you live in a pokey 1 bed flat in Musselborough rented from a dodgy landlord.

Can you provide a link to something similar to what you rent for £350?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

After the debt bubble bursts houses will be cheap as chips, no need to panic about getting on the mortgage train IMO.

Keep telling yourself that if it helps I've already shown you how you could now almost own a property outright.

Can you explain how there can be a bubble when according to you house prices haven't increased for 16 years.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

Your rent is much cheaper because you live in a pokey 1 bed flat in Musselborough rented from a dodgy landlord.

Can you provide a link to something similar to what you rent for £350?

I pay more than 350, but less than Acorn`s mortgage. Learn to spell the places you are posting about before you ask for links next time.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

Keep telling yourself that if it helps I've already shown you how you could now almost own a property outright.

Can you explain how there can be a bubble when according to you house prices haven't increased for 16 years.

Who said house prices hadn`t increased for 16 years?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Who said house prices hadn`t increased for 16 years?

You . .