London Has Peaked

padington

cells wrote: »

Population in the 80s had already turned. Between 1981 -1991 London added ~300,000 people so all those things you note didn't seem to matter

So I am still leaning towards the big upturn in London being immigration and a swing in persons per home rather than somehow London getting much better or being a fantastic place to live.

You need to ask yourself, why did the world rich and poor alike gravitate to live in London and why did British people themselves decide to up sticks, sometimes from beautiful countryside to come to London ?

It's because you were more likely to find an attractive partner who was going places and more likely to find an interesting job and more likely to have a wild weekend.

chucknorris

padington wrote: »

You need to ask yourself, why did the world rich and poor alike gravitate to live in London and why did British people themselves decide to up sticks, sometimes from beautiful countryside to come to London.

It's because you were more likely to find an attractive partner who was going places and more likely to find an interesting job and more likely to have a wild weekend.

I went to London in 1990 for a number of reasons, the main ones being:

- I thought that London property was very cheap (from a long term prospective) and I wanted to get in that market (I was right).

- I was a mature student and graduated at 32 years old, so I felt that I was 10 years behind where I should/could have been. London offered much faster career progression, so I thought that it would give me a chance to catch up (it did).

But when I reached my 40's I was starting to get fed up with London, I had reached a priorities had changed. I've never regretted moving out in 2005 (aged 47), I really appreciate living in a much more rural area now.

remorseless

padington wrote: »

You need to ask yourself, why did the world rich and poor alike gravitate to live in London and why did British people themselves decide to up sticks, sometimes from beautiful countryside to come to London.

isn't it because they can 'invest' money in brick? cough *money-laundering* And possibly fuelled by easy visas if you're willing to pay your way in as a non-dom?

Maybe more to do with the ease to find a lucrative job and the perception of benefits, but how many do actually settle in London long term? Also the language has a bit incentive!!!

Would have London been so prolific if the English wasn't the lingua franca?

padington

remorseless wrote: »

isn't it because they can 'invest' money in brick? cough *money-laundering* And possibly fuelled by easy visas if you're willing to pay your way in as a non-dom?

Maybe more to do with the ease to find a lucrative job and the perception of benefits, but how many do actually settle in London long term? Also the language has a bit incentive!!!

Would have London been so prolific if the English wasn't the lingua franca?

The language, literature , history, music, theatre, BBC, films, lectures, art, comedy, queens, princess, palaces, innovators, London transport, parks, visitors, special events, Global connectivity, education, science, technology, museum's, libraries, specialised communities, shopping, inward investment, iconic buildings, liberal tolerance, generosity, open competition, free festivals, the people, good jobs, occasional incredible party ...

It's true, London wouldn't be so prolific if it wasn't for those.

remorseless

padington wrote: »

The language, literature , history, music, theatre, BBC, films, lectures, royal family, Londom transport, parks, visitors, special events, access to Europe, education, science, museums, libraries, shopping, iconic buildings, liberal tolerance, free festivals, the people, good jobs, occasional incredible party ...

It's true, London wouldn't be so prolific if it wasn't for those.

hmmm there are cities in Europe with better lot than that... I meant, people keep pouring to London because there's no language barrier.

Before moving to London, we considered Amsterdam, by my partner doesn't speak Dutch, so we chose the UK mostly because of the language!

From a quality of life perspective, I don't think London is anywhere in the top 10, but the language... makes it easier to attract people because there's little learning to do because most know the basics already!

missyrichards

There must be something special about London as people keep coming here.:p

padington

remorseless wrote: »

hmmm there are cities in Europe with better lot than that... I meant, people keep pouring to London because there's no language barrier.

Before moving to London, we considered Amsterdam, by my partner doesn't speak Dutch, so we chose the UK mostly because of the language!

From a quality of life perspective, I don't think London is anywhere in the top 10, but the language... makes it easier to attract people because there's little learning to do because most know the basics already!

Did we stop speaking English in the 70's ?

http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/rbi-blogs/wp-content/blogs.dir/303/files/2014/03/Lonon-population-ons.jpg

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.
i was actively looking to buy a house in tottenham late 2013 early 2014 during which time asking prices for a victorian terrace rocketed from around £250-275k to over £400k in around 6 months.
classic bubble territory.
people were buying on spec saying "you have to buy now because they'll keep going up and you'll never be able to get on the ladder"
words i've heard before during previous bubbles.
since april the tables have turned.
mmr came in, slowing things down a bit, perhaps giving people a chance to reflect on the enormous amount of debt they were about to take on.
real wages haven't grown for several years,
mark carney has been taking up the possibility of rate rises,
the eu economy (our biggest trading partner)is on the brink of recession,
trade war with russia (where does europe get its gas from?),
china hot money drying up,
US tapering,
wars (one of which is in europe),
winding down of funding for lending.
the only things sustaining the market as the moment are unnaturally low interest rates and help2buy
not enough to counter the headwinds.
sentiment has changed and sentiment moves the market.
i predict a sharp correction henceforth...

Still predicting ?

ukcarper

padington wrote: »

Still predicting ?

I wonder if he bit the bullet and bought perhaps he could tell us.

remorseless

padington wrote: »

Did we stop speaking English in the 70's ?

http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/rbi-blogs/wp-content/blogs.dir/303/files/2014/03/Lonon-population-ons.jpg

did you? I dunno, wasn't speaking back then
Mind you though, comparing 2015 with 1970 is a bit different... in the 70's, I guess a generation ago, people wouldn't have learnt English at school and the concept of a globalisation was maybe at an early stage.

If I were a youngster now in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Poland, Latvia, etc, where could I go abroad where I can hit the ground running? UK, I have learned English at school compared with say Germany where conditions are better but language is a barrier.

I am not saying language alone is a factor, but it does play an important role in making a city easily accessible! You can see similar behaviour in Australia, Canada, etc

I often wonder why people stay in London for this long despite the city not being overly organised. Transport is like cattle-class, expensive, often running late. Housing is often shocking, expensive, difficult to secure. Don't feel overly welcome from the news, it's always the fault of immigrants!

Maybe they come here for the experience, using the UK as a stepping stone for something else... Also it's extremely cheap to swing by London.