London Has Peaked

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

lisyloo wrote: »

which indexes are you looking at.
I googled for halifax and it's positive for Dec 2014

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/press-releases/halifax/2014/housepriceindexdecember2014.pdf

Bubble and chums(the wait til your parents die crew) have their own measure, that only he can explain because it sounds absolutely mental to anyone else, it's got something to do with the asking price of one house on a street being indicative of the whole housing market. Whether that asking price is higher or lower than the last house sold on the street is irrelevant. Because in his mind it always means house prices are dropping.....

Bubble_and_Squeak

lisyloo wrote: »

That really doesn't look likely. If anything the recent deflationary outlook means we'll have low rates for a long time.

Also due to the fact that raising rates would bankrupt businesses, homeowners and BTL landlords is EXACTLY why the BOE won't do it.
I'd also like to point out that monetary policy does not revolve around housing.

They won't be "wiped off the planet" though. Worst case they'll go bankrupt and can start again. My person reflection is that fortune favours the brave i.e. the BTL landlords are doing better than those waiting for their parents to die (how terribly sad).

you're coming like DANNY!
i'm talking medium term
QE may well lead to high inflation 3-5 years down the line

Bubble_and_Squeak

lisyloo wrote: »

which indexes are you looking at.
I googled for halifax and it's positive for Dec 2014

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/press-releases/halifax/2014/housepriceindexdecember2014.pdf

halifax 4th quarter london

Bubble_and_Squeak

mortgage lending down again
and by quite a large margin

lisyloo

The regional data from Halifax says otherwise, are you sure you're not mistaken? (I've checked both SA and Non SA).

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/halifax-house-price-index/

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i prefer to buy now due to personal circumstances (which i wont go into on this board) but i can easily continues to rent. indeed, as we move into a deflationary era holding cash would be beneficial over an immovable asset.

If you can easily rent, haven't seen a rent increase ever and think house prices have peaked*/ will crash*/ will fall* then what bizarre personal circumstances would make you buy an asset certain to fall in value compared to the certainty of holding cash as 'we move into a deflationary era'.

Have BOMAD offered you a deposit but only if you vacate their back bedroom asap?

* to prevent accusations of lying please insert whatever you think has peaked and when.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

halifax 4th quarter london

Ahhh yes - as soon as a '-' sign appears in front of a number it becomes gospel. Funny really because you've been quite dubious about the ability of Halifax to comment on London house prices (well when they have '+' signs in front of the number at least).

lisyloo

you're coming like DANNY!

It's the truth.
No-one will die or go to prison if their investments don't work out.
i.e. you are wildly exaggerating the risks.
Those who are smart will have isolated their family and home from their business risks.

i'm talking medium term
QE may well lead to high inflation 3-5 years down the line

Some who haven't planned well might be stuffed.
Many who bought at lower prices in the past, or have a fixed rate, or have investments from the profits or with deep pockets will be absolutely fine.

What about you though? Why are you so obssessed if you strongly believe prices will fall. In your position I'd be chilling out and saving.

wotsthat

lisyloo wrote: »

The regional data from Halifax says otherwise, are you sure you're not mistaken? (I've checked both SA and Non SA).

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/halifax-house-price-index/

The house price calculator thing is showing a 2.5% fall Q3 to Q4 in London.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/house-price-tools/

i.e. Bubble is ignoring the 5.4% increase Q2 to Q4 because, like all good crashaholics, this mother's going down right now so any past data can be discounted (unless it was negative of course).

danothy

lisyloo wrote: »

The regional data from Halifax says otherwise, are you sure you're not mistaken? (I've checked both SA and Non SA).

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/halifax-house-price-index/

From that link there's actually three London metrics that could be what old BS is referring to:

- The fourth quarter of 2014 saw a seasonally adjusted increase of about 0.2% on the third quarter of 2014
- The fourth quarter of 2014 saw a non-seasonally adjusted 14.5% increase on the fourth quarter of 2013.
- The fourth quarter of 2014 saw a non-seasonally adjusted 2.5% decrease (i.e. -2.5%) on the third quarter of 2014.

However since the preferred BS method only involves the most recent blip, we have to consider that a +0.9% change for December 2014 overrides the quarter statistic.