London Has Peaked

padington

Greater london down 5.1%

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2014/12/december-2014.pdf

Haringey one of the best 'performers' down just 2.0.

Would imagine the devil is in the detail and the prime properties in a london are distorting the averages by million plus one getting slammed hard.

Wales however the only area on the up. 3.1 % drop across the UK.

Evidence to suggest bubbles may have been almost right with an April / may peak call.

TheBlueHorse

a house on my street (herts/north london border) went up for sale at a record price last week and is already "Sold STC". Annecdotal of course, but shows that in certain areas prices keep on rising.

Bubble_and_Squeak

the last RICS survey found that the majority of EAs expect prices to fall in the next few months. as it is EAs who ultimately decide how high to fly the kite i would expect further falls in asking prices early next year

Jason74

padington wrote: »

Greater london down 5.1%

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2014/12/december-2014.pdf

Haringey one of the best 'performers' down just 2.0.

Would imagine the devil is in the detail and the prime properties in a london are distorting the averages by million plus one getting slammed hard.

Wales however the only area on the up. 3.1 % drop across the UK.

Evidence to suggest bubbles may have been almost right with an April / may peak call.

Sounds about right to me, although looking at it on a borough by borough basis, I'm not sure that the "prime property factor" is that significant accross the board. Looking at Croydon for example, it's one of the cheapest London Boroughs, but had a Monthly drop of close to 5%. I doubt that issues around £1m properties are having much of an impact there.

I think in terms of a peak of this phase of the market, Bubbles was probably a Month or two early with his call, but closer to the mark than many have given him Credit for. His "HPC" posting style probably did him no favours in terms of being taken seriously, even though he was actually not that wide of the mark.

That said, I'd still be in the "buy now if you find something you're happy with" school of though, albeit I think people can afford to be choosy and not rush into buying anything for the sake of owning something. Long term, the London market is likely to keep rising, even if the strength of recent rises mean that the next meaningful leg up is a while off yet. That's just my (non expert) view though, and as ever, people need to be responsible for their own decisions.

Bubble_and_Squeak

thanks for the show of confidence lads but it is only one months figures.
although the nominal peak for RM asking prices is officially november i personally consider may to be the high point due to adjustments in initial asking prices not being factored in to the index.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

More worry there is about deflation, lower the interest rates will be for longer. I love the sound of the 'threat' of deflation, just as long as we never actually have it.

My point was that some deflation is good for the ordinary people, it is always portrayed in the media as the worst possible outcome though, to be avoided at all costs. The sooner we have some serious deflation in house prices the better IMO. A credit driven inflation must be followed by a long bout of deflation as things unwind.

Crashy_Time

Jason74 wrote: »

Sounds about right to me, although looking at it on a borough by borough basis, I'm not sure that the "prime property factor" is that significant accross the board. Looking at Croydon for example, it's one of the cheapest London Boroughs, but had a Monthly drop of close to 5%. I doubt that issues around £1m properties are having much of an impact there.

I think in terms of a peak of this phase of the market, Bubbles was probably a Month or two early with his call, but closer to the mark than many have given him Credit for. His "HPC" posting style probably did him no favours in terms of being taken seriously, even though he was actually not that wide of the mark.

That said, I'd still be in the "buy now if you find something you're happy with" school of though, albeit I think people can afford to be choosy and not rush into buying anything for the sake of owning something. Long term, the London market is likely to keep rising, even if the strength of recent rises mean that the next meaningful leg up is a while off yet. That's just my (non expert) view though, and as ever, people need to be responsible for their own decisions.

Too many have been given credit they shouldn`t have been given, that is why we are in this ridiculous mess. "HPC posting style"?? Do you really think that the MSE posting style on this topic is taken seriously? :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/201701-the-collapse-of-the-russian-bear-thread/page-24#entry1102638201

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

thanks for the show of confidence lads but it is only one months figures.
although the nominal peak for RM asking prices is officially november i personally consider may to be the high point due to adjustments in initial asking prices not being factored in to the index.

Asking prices in London reach an all time(?) high in November but, after your patented adjustments, May was the peak?

We're 1000 posts in and you still haven't said what peaked or how it's measured.

In_For_A_Penny_2

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/201701-the-collapse-of-the-russian-bear-thread/page-24#entry1102638201

You reckon interest rate rise in Russia will cause mortgage defaults in UK?